Let's wait and see what the conditions of this "agreement" really turn out to be. Does the US and the rest of the world accept Iran's de facto control of the Straits of Hormuz, and the payment of a toll to cross it? If so, that is a great victory for Iran's regime.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Tuesday, April 07, 2026 - 07:41 pm: Edit

Update: Iran has agreed to open passage through the Strait for the two-week ceasefire.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Tuesday, April 07, 2026 - 07:42 pm: Edit

JUST IN: Israel says it detects an incoming Iranian missile barrage despite the ceasefire.

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Tuesday, April 07, 2026 - 07:42 pm: Edit

AP just announced Iran's agreement.

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Tuesday, April 07, 2026 - 07:43 pm: Edit

Lovely.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Tuesday, April 07, 2026 - 07:58 pm: Edit

There is, at this juncture, no confirmation on whether or not Israel is in fact a party to the ceasefire agreement (and that's not for lack of searching for such, though "a White House official" claimed that they were but refused to be named). And a second attack, this time in the form of ballistic missiles, is apparently inbound toward Israel.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Tuesday, April 07, 2026 - 07:59 pm: Edit

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Quote:

Do I think it is probable that Pres. Trump will deploy nuclear weapons against Iran? No. But at this juncture, it is a non-negligible possibility. His statements over the past few days are eerily reminiscent of the Potsdam Declaration in '45...which, as a reminder, Pres. Truman did not expect Japan to accept; it was, at least in large part, an effort at laying down a legal basis for deploying the atomic bomb.

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By Jean Sexton Beddow (Jsexton) on Tuesday, April 07, 2026 - 08:06 pm: Edit

Strait of Hormuz, not Straight.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Tuesday, April 07, 2026 - 08:45 pm: Edit

Thanks for setting us Straight!

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Tuesday, April 07, 2026 - 09:00 pm: Edit

Gah, and I know better.

Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait, Strait.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Tuesday, April 07, 2026 - 09:02 pm: Edit

More straight talk from Jean!

--Mike

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Tuesday, April 07, 2026 - 09:25 pm: Edit

Straight up!

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Tuesday, April 07, 2026 - 10:50 pm: Edit

Guys, you know, if we keep this up, Jean just might fit us all up with Strait Jackets! You know! The ones that button up on the back!

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, April 07, 2026 - 11:55 pm: Edit

Mine is quite comfy, keeps me warm when she turns down the AC.

By Chuck Strong (Raider) on Wednesday, April 08, 2026 - 01:13 am: Edit

Ted Fay: Did you get to make your statement based on winning your bet?…..

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, April 08, 2026 - 06:18 am: Edit

I saw an interesting point brought up during a talk show last night. You can, with difficulty, hunt down and bomb every factory in Iran able to produce nuclear materials, missiles, even explosives. But you can never hunt down every garage workshop that builds drones. Those drones are good for 200 miles range and a medium size boom and nothing you can do will keep Iran from building them by the thousands.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Wednesday, April 08, 2026 - 08:16 am: Edit

There's also the issue that, after we would hit a missile site, they'd dig it out in a few hours and be up and running again. We did a lot of damage to stuff that was out in the open, but Iran learned a long time ago not to keep critical things out in the open.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Wednesday, April 08, 2026 - 08:26 am: Edit

Pakistani mediators who coordinated the ceasefire stated that it was supposed to apply to the war in southern Lebanon as well. Israel later stated that it did not, and last night launched the largest coordinated strike in Lebanon since the war began.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Wednesday, April 08, 2026 - 08:33 am: Edit

The point about garage workshops, and building drones by the thousands is a good point, but it flies in the face of the reported data by MSM and F.Y.E.O. And other sources.

Iran has been badly mismanaged by the mullahs for decades.

They long ago failed to perform regular maintenance on their oil refineries, and manufacturing facilities resulting in ever increasing down time and difficulty in producing all manner of goods, tools and electronics.

As a result, Iran has had to import gasoline and diesel fuels. With the loss of Karg island, Iran no longer has the capacity to export oil to the world markets.

As posted earlier, no oil revenues means no money to pay people to build drones , or even to equip home garages with the parts and tools needed to produce drones.

Sure, there may be some production, but it remains to be seen if Iran can produce the kinds, types or numbers of combat drones that say a Ukraine has been able to produce since 2022.

Plus, Iran has become, since January 2026 very much a classic police state complete with regular civilian massacres, 30,000 dead civilians back in January 2026 alone.

There may not be an awful lot of zeal and enthusiasm for the government.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, April 08, 2026 - 11:48 am: Edit

Drones are of course hard to stop. If only the US military made more use of them. For example they would be perfect for hunting IRGC checkpoints, and killing the IRGC guys without hurting the civilians currently at the checkpoint.

And Jeff, the issue is the amount of money it takes. Large weapons systems tend to have costs in the millions of dollars. Shaheds cost maybe $30k. Small FPV drones cost perhaps $500. So sufficient poverty to prevent multimillion dollar weapons may not be sufficient to stop drones.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, April 08, 2026 - 12:43 pm: Edit

Greta Thunberg says Trump is a racist war criminal acting with impunity. Well, okay then….

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, April 08, 2026 - 01:10 pm: Edit

We now have Iran’s ten point list. I would not assume that Trump has agreed to any of these demands.

1 non aggression pact by US
2 Iran controls Hormuz
3 Iran is allowed to enrich uranium
4 removal of all sanctions on Iran
5 removal of all sanctions on those doing business with Iran
6 cancel all UN Security Council resolutions against Iran
7 cancel all IAEA resolutions against Iran
8 compensation by the US for all war damage
9 US withdrawal from the region permanently
10 ceasefire including Lebanon

Ain’t no way a country winning the war like we are agrees to any of those beyond phased 4 and 5 over time and of course 10.

As a list of issues to discuss, sure, as any kind of agreement, not a fracking chance in Zarathustra.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Wednesday, April 08, 2026 - 01:23 pm: Edit

Thus spake Zarathustra.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Wednesday, April 08, 2026 - 01:42 pm: Edit

William Jockusch:

The Iranians can’t afford to pay the payrolls for their own troops.

If they can arrange credit, may be they get one garage up and producing a hand full of drones a month.

And that assumes plentiful parts and a source of electronics for guidance and controlling the drones in flight.

If it were you, are you willing to bet your life that Israel won’t detect the rudimentary radio signals you are establishing for two way control and video transmission from the drone to aid in targeting since all established military systems have been and continue to be targeted by U.S. and Israel?

The mobile check point guard in iran is being hunted snd killed daily. How long do you expect to build and launch your drones before you and your garage get scheduled for urban renewal by Israel?

By Dana Madsen (Madman) on Wednesday, April 08, 2026 - 01:53 pm: Edit

Jeff, I'm not going to claim that Iran is a well managed or run economy, not even going to try and go there.

But you have a couple things incorrect, or you are getting ahead of the facts on the ground. You said Iran has lost all export capacity. At this time, Iran has not lost Kharg island. The US has bombed and destroyed all, or at least 95%+ of all military facilities on the island. They have not destroyed any significant oil / gas export storage or port loading facilities. Could that change tomorrow, next week or in two weeks. Sure, Iran obviously couldn't stop the US from destroying the oil infrastructure. Right now it appears that the US doesn't want to unless they feel they need to. I assume that would have been part of the next phase of targets.

The US hasn't landed troops there and taken control either. I think it's actually likely there will be tankers loading Iranian oil from Kharg within the next week bound for China.

Secondly, while Kharg represents the significant majority of their oil exporting capacity, Iran does have other ports on the south coast outside of the strait capable of loading 20%+ or their exports. Obviously if the US decided to go get Kharg, they could go get the rest as well. The point is Kharg handles about 1.5 million bbl / day and Iran was exporting about 2 million bbl / day in 2025, some months a little more. Kharg island alone isn't Iran's sole port, they actually have more redundancy on exports than Kuwait or Qatar.

Why hasn't the US hit their oil exports capacity. My guess, the goal is to have world oil prices return to normal and US gas prices return to normal as soon as possible. Destroying 2 million bpd of world wide capacity, about 2% of all production, may not prevent oil from returning to where it was, but it would likely slow the rate at which it got back there. Also, if there was a complete regime change and a reasonable government, their having a revenue source to improve things for the Iranian people would likely be considered a good thing. Secondly, if you destroy all Iranian capacity and bomb them back to the stone age, at that point there really isn't any reason for them to stop, they might as well use whatever capacity of drones and missiles they have hidden in caves for a final strike against Kuwaiti, Saudi, Omani, Qatari, etc oil assets. The goal being to do permanent damage to oil export capacity that would takes years to rebuild leaving prices elevated for a while. Whether they could succeed at doing significant damage I don't know, but it seems likely that they would try.

So today, and for the next 2 weeks, if the ceasefire is maintained, tankers could be loading oil for China, and China could be delivering cargo ships with drone components or whatever. I'm not saying that is happening today, but it could be.