Not unexpected. Iran is so shot up nobody is in real control, anybody we talk to only has a limited ability to control the country.

I really hate allowing Russia to sell oil but we all know Jessica would be screaming about $150/barrel oil if that had not been done.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Saturday, April 18, 2026 - 08:33 am: Edit

If it comes down to a choice between more expensive oil or allowing Russia a get-out-of-sanctions-free card, I'll take the more expensive oil, thanks.

Mind, it didn't need to come down to either. When Iran agreed to open the Strait, the U.S. could have done something other than, you know, blockading Iranian ports...an act that always guaranteed exactly this kind of response from Iran.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Saturday, April 18, 2026 - 09:51 am: Edit

Jessica, you missed a few steps.


Iran mined the southern half of the strait.
Iran agreed to open the strait but not to remove the mines.
Iran demanded tolls.
Iran closed the strait because Israel was destroying hezbollah.
Iran fired missiles and drones at tankers.
The US bombed the missile sites.
Iran kept firing missiles and drones.
The US blockaded Iranian ports.

That is your classic tactic, Jessica, and it needs to stop. Your cite true facts, but leave out the 3/4 of the equally true facts that prove the situation is the opposite of what you claim. Just stop this tactic, please.

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Saturday, April 18, 2026 - 10:19 am: Edit

The problem that I see is; Why negotiate reopening the strait if you plan to keep the blockade on Iran? As long as there is a blockade, Iran has no reason to reopen the straits.

Time could have been better spent on other tasks.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Saturday, April 18, 2026 - 10:35 am: Edit

>> Iran has no reason to reopen the straits

Well, depending on who you read, they'll run out of cash "soon" due to a lack of oil revenue, their economy (which was already in crisis pre-war) will collapse, and there will be no money to pay their IRGC terrorists, informants, proxies, police state, government officials, etc. So then the regime ceases to function and civil war erupts.

Of course, only time will tell what actually happens. The situation, as they say is "fluid".

--Mike

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Saturday, April 18, 2026 - 11:09 am: Edit

Except, with a blockade in place, reopening the straits gives Iran no trade, thus no incentive.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Saturday, April 18, 2026 - 11:34 am: Edit

Like clockwork, with US sanctions off, Ukrainian drones hit two Russian oil refineries last night, with a combined capacity of roughly 17 million tons per year, out of Russia's total of about 330 million tons per year. They also hit other assorted oil-related targets.

So the US may not be sanctioning Russia's oil, but Ukraine is.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Saturday, April 18, 2026 - 01:08 pm: Edit

President Trump almost HAD to know that Ukraine will continue to prosecute the war to its full potential.

Releasing sanctions against Russia might just be a carrot to dangle in front of Putin…

If it brings Russia back to the (figurative) table, it might be worth the trouble, if it results in a face saving means to ending the war.

As it was reported in F.Y.E.O. Earlier, Russia has stopped gaining Ukrainian territory, and is now retreating in several large areas along the front.

The disparity between Russian loses verses Ukrainian casualties is still very one sided, with Russia very much on the losing side.

It is very possible that the “tipping point” SVC mentioned above is looming in the future.

It is possible that it could be closer than many imagine.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Saturday, April 18, 2026 - 01:25 pm: Edit

Too many Presidents have tried carrots on Putin for too long. Biden offered him a summit to not start the war. Trump plays nice to get him to talk.

None of it has worked.

Ukraine's sticks have, however, at least gotten a lot of Russians pissed off about the war.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Saturday, April 18, 2026 - 03:30 pm: Edit

More than that, its captivated Putins attention to the point that urgent matters that should have been attended to have been too long neglected.

The Russian economy has been a basket case since long before the 2022 invasion, has only gotten worse.

The state of the strategic rocket forces was pitiful, now appears almost abandoned.

The Navy was neglected, now that part that hasn’t yet been sunk is engaged in a round of brinksmanship against the U.K. Royal Navy (which under both Tory and Labor governments) is nearly in as bad a shape as the Russian Navy.

The Air Force is a piece of … well, can’t say that here, but its bad.

The only part that has been consistant, is every failure seems to result in a accident/suspicious death of the Crony Putin installed to fix the problems gets replaced regularly.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Sunday, April 19, 2026 - 12:11 am: Edit

OK, so this is an attempt at putting together a "Strait of Hormuz timeline". It does not completely conform with the previous statements of either Steve or myself.

28 Feb: US/Israeli joint strikes on Iran begin.
28 Feb: IRGC transmits warnings that Strait is closed.
1 Mar: Iran beings attacking ships in the Strait; they continue almost daily through 4 Apr.
4 Mar: IRGC claims to have achieved complete control of the Strait.
5 Mar: IRGC modifies statement, announcing that the Strait would remain closed only to ships from the US, Israel, and their Western allies.
8 Mar: IRGC confirms statement of 5 Mar.
13 Mar: Turkish transport minister says Iran approved passage of a Turkish ship through the Strait. Two Indian-flagged gas carriers and a Saudi oil tanker were also allowed passage.
14-24 Mar: Indian-flagged LPG carriers evacuated from the Strait on three different occasions.
26 Mar: Iranian foreign minister announces that ships owned by China, Russia, Iraq, India and Pakistan would be allowed passage through the Strait.
2 Apr: Iran announces Philippine-flagged vessels allowed passage.
8 Apr: Temporary ceasefire between US-Israel-Iran declared, part of which was supposed to involve re-opening the Strait; however, Iran began to route traffic through the Strait through Iranian waters and charged tolls.
11 Apr: US president announces that US forces had started clearing the Strait. Two US destroyers transit the strait in a freedom-of-navigation demonstration; Iran claims this is a violation of the ceasefire.
12 Apr: US president declares a naval blockade of the Strait; CENTCOM clarifies that this is specifically a naval blockade of Iranian ports, not intended to otherwise impede traffic through the Strait. IRGC Navy says that any military vessel approaching the Strait could be considered a ceasefire violation.
18 Apr: Iran claims to have once again closed the Strait. Iranian attacks resume on ships attempting passage.

To be clear: I can find no reference to support a claim that Iran closed the Strait after the start of the ceasefire but before the start of the US blockade; that said, it wasn't fully open, inasmuch as Iran was running their toll-booth protection racket.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, April 19, 2026 - 08:33 am: Edit

In other news, United Media24(a russian site) posted this.

Quote:” Russia Goes Back to WWII-Era Planes After Failing to Build a New One
Apr 13, 2026 12:54
3 min read
Authors
Photo of Vlad Litnarovych
VLAD LITNAROVYCH
News Writer
The broken fuselage of an old Antonov-2 aircraft stands in snow near a playground at the mining town of Udachny, Sakha Republic, Russia, on December 16, 2013. (Source: Getty Images)
The broken fuselage of an old Antonov-2 aircraft stands in snow near a playground at the mining town of Udachny, Sakha Republic, Russia, on December 16, 2013. (Source: Getty Images)
Russia is considering restoring up to 700 Soviet-era An-2 aircraft currently in storage after efforts to develop a modern replacement failed, according to a report by Russian media outlet Kommersant on April 13.

The proposal was put forward by the Siberian Aeronautical Research Institute (SibNIA), which argues that refurbishing and upgrading the aging aircraft could help address a growing shortage of planes on regional routes over the next five to seven years, until new models become available.

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According to the institute, the unused An-2 fleet has consumed only about 25–30% of its operational life, and the aircraft do not have a fixed service limit. SibNIA suggests that modernization, including engine replacement and cockpit upgrades, could significantly extend their usability.

Since 2024, Russian authorities have already returned 16 out of 51 stored An-2 aircraft to service, even though those planes had previously been slated for scrapping.

Out of roughly 17,500 aircraft originally produced, more than 14,700 have been written off or destroyed. As of 2025, only 249 An-2 aircraft remain in operation across 62 operators, with another 276 held by Russia’s DOSAAF aviation organization.

Russian An-2 military transport plane in the DOSAAF aviation organization, 2008. (Source: Wikimedia)
Russian An-2 military transport plane in the DOSAAF aviation organization, 2008. (Source: Wikimedia)
Interior of the Russian An-2 military transport plane, 2008. (Source: Wikimedia)
Interior of the Russian An-2 military transport plane, 2008. (Source: Wikimedia)
Analysts at SibNIA estimate that the An-2 airframe could remain viable until around 2100, while its original engines may last until 2063. To extend service life, developers have proposed replacing the engines with alternatives such as the Pratt & Whitney PT6A-67B, Honeywell TPE331-12, or the Russian TVD-10B.

Approximately 85% of retired An-2 aircraft are owned by private individuals or companies, according to Pavel Nenastev, head of a Moscow-based DOSAAF aircraft repair facility. He said operators interested in using the planes could finance repairs and upgrades as needed.

The cost of refurbishing a single An-2 in Russia is estimated at between 17 million ($223,000) and 25 million rubles ($328,000), significantly higher than the aircraft’s market value of 3.5 million ($46,000) to 5 million rubles ($65,000). The high cost is largely attributed to the need to source parts through parallel imports.

Overall, restoring the dormant fleet could cost between 14.5 billion ($191 million) and 21 billion rubles ($276 million).

Russia Cannot Ensure the Safety of Its Most Important Aircraft
READ MORE
Category
WAR IN UKRAINE
Russia Cannot Ensure the Safety of Its Most Important Aircraft
Dec 23, 2025 14:53
The move comes after delays and setbacks in Russia’s effort to develop a replacement aircraft, the Baikal. The project, launched in 2019, was expected to enter serial production by 2024, with each aircraft priced at around 280 million rubles ($3,6 million).

However, in May 2025, a senior Russian official said the project had reached a dead end despite receiving 3.5 billion rubles in funding ($46 million). According to sources cited by Kommersant, designers made “dramatic errors” that would require the aircraft to be essentially rebuilt from scratch.

Earlier, a Boeing 757 operated by Russian airline Azur Air was forced to make an emergency landing in Hanoi after one of its engines failed mid-flight.

This incident marked the fourth in-flight malfunction involving Russian-operated aircraft within a week.”

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Sunday, April 19, 2026 - 01:56 pm: Edit

Jeff, I think United Media 24 is Ukrainian actually.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, April 19, 2026 - 02:19 pm: Edit

Carl, since I do not speak either language(dialect), and this is the first time I have posted information from their site, I wasn’t sure.

They do have a bit of U.S.S.R. Posts on the web page.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Sunday, April 19, 2026 - 04:09 pm: Edit

Yeah, they have no page on English language wikipedia either. The content and about page suggested it is ukrainian, and then i found that the info on their youtube page have a link to an official UA gov page for those who want to support the cause by donating money. It is either a legit Ukrainian new media, or a very sophisticated Russian psy ops^^

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, April 19, 2026 - 05:13 pm: Edit

Again, Jessica, you left out steps where Iran declared the strait closed because Israel would not stop destroying Hezbollah. Iran also fired missiles and drones at ships that refused to pay tolls without declaring anything. A lot of other stuff well known to everyone who followed the news also happened, including the overall peace talks where Iran continues to stall the pontificate and ignore the real issues. The blockade (and the bombing that starts in two days) is the only reason talks are resuming. Trump was totally justified in blockading Iran's ports because of Iran's actions.

ENOUGH. MOVE ON.

Go talk about Ukraine for a while, or Mozambique. I'm tired (exhausted) from the trip and I just don't have the energy to put up with this @#$%.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, April 20, 2026 - 07:26 am: Edit

Um24 is run by the Ukraine government, not a bad thing.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Monday, April 20, 2026 - 07:46 am: Edit

I read Um24 stuff all the time. Yes they are Ukrainian.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, April 20, 2026 - 01:17 pm: Edit

In the last couple of years, eleven top US defense scientists have gone missing or been found dead. This is statistically very unusual and more than curious.

A massive investigation has begun. Nothing has turned up so far linking the cases. One scientist disappeared while hiking in a national park, something that has been a pattern of conspiracy theories for a long time.

This could all just be a statistical fluke, or a foreign power might be killing them. One might, however, say if China was trying to wreck US military research, there would be a lot more dead bodies.

China, big foot, and UFOs are all suspected.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, April 20, 2026 - 04:49 pm: Edit

Demystifying Karg Island
April 20, 2026: As of 13 April, the American President ordered that all ships in Iranian ports will be subjected to the blockade. Non-Iranian ships will have until 1400 UTC on 13 April to vacate Iranian ports. After that ships are subject in interception, diversion or capture. Ships sailing to other nations in the Gulf will be permitted, along with humanitarian shipments, but subject to inspection.
With the end of the Iran war earlier this month, Kharg Island was no longer a target for Israeli and American attacks. Kharg is the same size as Iwo Jima, the Pacific Island American forces fought a fierce battle to conquer. Kharg is 32 kilometers off the Iranian coast and is currently guarded by detachments of the fanatical IRGC\Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Negotiation over Kharg included reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil facilities on Kharg currently handle up to 90 percent of Iranian oil exports. American threats to destroy or occupy Kharg Island were a major factor in Iran calling for a ceasefire and negotiations.
Sixteen years ago, Iran carried out wargames simulating a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. During these exercises Iran demonstrated the capabilities of its Persian Gulf naval forces. Iran was trying to demonstrate the consequences of a military strike on Persian Gulf oil facilities. Even if Iran were able to dominate the Gulf, with the Strait of Hormuz closed, Iranian oil shipments would also be blocked.
If Iran attempted to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the US and NATO would likely respond with their own blockade. The U.S. possesses a superior fleet, so it would be highly unlikely for Iran to eliminate the American fleet and its blockade. Immediately, all trade both ways through the Strait of Hormuz would be stopped.
Iran could never afford such an action. Iran’s largest ports, Kharg Island and Lavan Island and Bandar Abbas, are all in the Persian Gulf. The only exit out of the Persian Gulf is through the Strait of Hormuz. This is where most of Iran’s trade flows to the sea.
Crude oil makes up 90 percent of Iran’s exports. Since both of Iran’s largest oil export ports are in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s exports would shrink drastically. Iran would be unable to ship oil. On top of that, Iran’s fleet of supertankers would be confined to the inner Persian Gulf. These large ships, which contribute a significant amount to the Iranian economy, could not break the U.S. blockade.
Even worse, the U.S. would likely pressure its allies in the Middle East to stop trading with Iran. Two countries that would likely cooperate would be Afghanistan and Iraq, which Iran exports over $5 billion worth of goods to. If the US offered incentives and gained the support of the UN, other nations, Iran also might halt their trade.
Iran has made several critical errors. Not only has it relied on one resource for the most of its exports, but it also has relied on only a few trade routes; Iran relies too much on the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, a blockade against the Strait of Hormuz, combined with cutting off some of the trade between Iran and its neighbors, would strike a devastating blow to Iran’s economy. The economic downturn in Iran would likely cause both internal strife and a decrease in military spending that would weaken Iran’s blockade. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which 40 percent of the world’s oil flows through, may seem like a solid strategy, but in fact it has several flaws. Hopefully Iran will consider the economic consequences of closing the Strait of Hormuz.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, April 20, 2026 - 04:49 pm: Edit

Russians Returning To landlines
April 20, 2026: Russian civilians are being urged by their government to return to the use of landline telephones. While Russians quickly adapted to cellular communications and most have cell phones, about 12 percent of them still have landline phones, but only two percent of them regularly use them. The current Russian crackdown on the use of cellphones and the internet is meant to stop Russians from complaining about their government and the war in Ukraine. Over the last year the government responded by halting cellphone service. Last month the Capital, Moscow, went three weeks without stable internet service. Most Russians refuse to install a landline phone, perhaps because Russian business and government operations require internet access to conduct business and carry out government operations. In practical terms, the internet is still active in Russia and enterprising Russians will find ways to supply this access to civilians. This is not the first time Russia got involved with disrupting internet operations and trying to prevent foreigners from doing it to Russia.
For over a decade Ukraine has been subject to an ominously large amount of Russian network reconnaissance of Ukrainian networks and growing Russian Cyber War attacks. None of this was a major news story and that was typical for the massive Cyber War campaign Russia has carried out against Ukraine in 2022. In 2023 Russian hackers attacked American internet users by quietly infiltrating hundreds of routers belonging to home and small business users and installing botnet malware. This is software that carries out illegal tasks. In this case the Russian malware was called Moobot, which was created by Russian gangsters who specialize in hacking to make money.
This particular hacking mission was carried out by the Russian GRU, which is the foreign military intelligence agency of the Russian military. This operation was carried out by GRU Military Unit 26165 to carry out espionage on Ukraine and sabotage of Ukrainian and other foreign networks. In this case the American FBI became aware of the GRU attack in 2024 and used its own malware to delete Moobot malware the GRU had installed on American routers and restore these routers to their pre-GRU attack status. The FBI also installed software that would prevent the GRU from reinstalling Moobot. The FBI has been dealing with attacks by other Russian hacker groups as well as Chinese hackers working for the Chinese government and Chinese gangsters.
Russia has always been considered a major Cyber War threat. Since the 1990s Russian Internet based espionage has been very active and effective. That led to fears of a Cyber Pearl Harbor. Russia had hoped for such a daring and damaging attack on Ukraine but was disappointed because Ukraine had looked for and noticed the Russian preparations. Before and after the first Russian attack in 2014, Ukraine had been receiving more military aid and assistance from NATO countries. Ukraine and NATO Cyber War experts agreed that an international effort, including the major American providers of Internet infrastructure and services had to be involved. This meant Amazon, Cloudflare, Google, Microsoft and several smaller but essential Internet services or security firms had to be involved.
Russia was soon aware that this international coalition of Internet infrastructure and services was involved in defending Ukraine. This organization came to be known as Cyber NATO because most of the major resources came from NATO nations.
Microsoft was the oldest of these Internet giants and the one that pioneered large scale, organized and highly responsive efforts to deal with hackers operating at the consumer level or against national Cyber infrastructure. These Internet giants increasingly cooperated in Cyber defense. When Ukraine and NATO governments went looking for Internet industry help and cooperation, they found that their inquiries and requests were welcomed. Ukraine took advantage of this in 2016 when they established their Ukrainian National Cybersecurity Coordination Center. This operation played a key role in coordination and synchronizing the Western efforts or forming a large-scale effort to detect and block Russian Cyber War activities against Ukraine, or any NATO nation.
Before 2022 Russia had a reputation for being a formidable threat as a practitioner of Cyber War. Russia had a formidable arsenal of Cyber War weapons and pre-planned attacks, especially against Ukraine. After the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the Russian reputation as a military power has been much diminished along with their standing as a Cyber War threat. While Russian military activities were widely reported on by the media, much less attention was paid to the similar defeats Russia suffered as they sought to carry major Cyber War campaigns against Ukraine even before Russian troops crossed the border. The Cyber War defeats continued throughout 2022 and to the present.
Like many other capabilities, that reputation was tarnished and diminished during the recent war in Ukraine. For Russia the defeats were frequent and victories few in this network battle space. Russian defeats began the day before Russian troops crossed the Ukrainian border and continued during the first months of the war as Russian unleashed most of their pre-planned attacks designed to do maximum damage to Ukrainian networks and Internet-based capabilities. Ukraine knew what its key Internet vulnerabilities were and, with the assistance of Cyber NATO and the major American Internet services and security providers, the Russian efforts were blocked. China, the other Cyber War threat to NATO and the West, took note.
This sort of large-scale coordinated Internet defense was always theoretically possible and now the main Cyber War threats are from Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran and these nations saw or experienced this Cyber War in action. That changed the Cyber War strategies of all these aggressor nations. At the moment, the best the Internet threat nations can hope for is that the defense coalition grows less effective over time because the defenders might believe they have the problem solved and major investments of time and effort in defense are no longer necessary. That would be a mistake because the benefits of effective Cyber War weapons expand as more of the world becomes dependent on Internet based services.
It takes time and effort to develop effective large scale Internet defenses. Microsoft was the first to discover this. Since the 1990s Microsoft created a formidable Internet security organization that monitors networks worldwide for signs of malware, especially new malware, being used. Network security features have been added to the Windows operating system and one of them for PCs is to automatically send back to Microsoft potential hacker presence information back to Microsoft. At the same time, Microsoft will quickly send out fixes to infected PCs. Ukraine and Microsoft began developing a cooperative relationship in the late 1990s because, after 1991, Eastern Europe, especially Ukraine and Russia, were major sources of hacker activity. Ukraine cooperated with Microsoft to reduce the hacker threat while Russia insisted it didn’t exist.
For example, back in 2009 Ukraine cooperated with the United States and Microsoft to deal with a Ukrainian gang consisting of six specific individuals who put together one of the largest botnets ever encountered. In February and March 2009, the gang used spam, containing hidden programs, to take control of 1.9 million PCs. A computer security firm discovered the botnet, and subsequent cooperation between Ukraine, the United States and other countries led to the server controlling the botnet being found and taken offline. At the same time this effort identified members of the gang. Ukrainian police arrested the six after participating in the international effort to find them.
The Soviet Union trained many software engineers who worked for the government. Most of these programmers and software engineers were out of work after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Some left for the West and found good jobs but most sought opportunities at home and the most lucrative ones involved illegal hacking, often for criminal gangs. Russia never cleaned up this problem, but Ukraine did. Russia allowed the gangs to operate in Russia as long as they did not hack Russian networks and did occasional jobs for the government. This included developing malware to be used against neighbors and Western nations in general. Ukraine vigorously enforced laws against hacking and the local hackers either left the country or found legit jobs.
Other East European nations also cracked down on the hackers. Many, but not Ukraine, joined NATO and sought to have NATO declare massive hacker attacks as a cause for war against the aggressor. After the 2022 Ukraine invasion Russia launched a major Cyber War attack on Lithuania because of Lithuanian threats to disrupt access to Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave on the Baltic Coast that must use Lithuanian or Polish railroads or roads for access to Russia,
Back in 2007 Russia planned Cyber War efforts against the more prosperous and affluent former Soviet territories. At the top of this list was Estonia, which was hit by a massive Russian Cyber War-scale attack. The Estonians withstood the attack despite the temporary damage it did to their economy. This was something a NATO member had never faced before and Estonia pointed out that if there was no NATO response to the Russian attack on Estonia, the Russians would be tempted to try it on other new NATO members in East Europe.
This led to a 2010 agreement with NATO to facilitate cooperation between NATO and Estonia if Estonia was hit by another Internet based attack. In 2008 NATO established a Cyber Defense Center in Estonia. This, and the 2010 agreement, was a result of being called on by Estonia, in 2007, to declare Cyber War on Russia. That was because Russia was accused of causing great financial harm to Estonia via Cyber War attacks, and Estonia wanted this sort of thing declared terrorism, and dealt with. NATO agreed to discuss the issue, but never took any action against Russia. The new agreement did create a legal framework for striking back, or at least to defend Estonia more vigorously if there is another attack.
In 2014 Russia seized Crimea province from Ukraine and half of two east Ukrainian provinces. There was not a lot of physical violence, but Russia did use Ukraine as a test site for new Cyber War tactics and techniques. An example of this appeared in 2016 when Ukraine accused Russia of employing hackers to insert trackers into cell phones used by Ukrainian military personnel fighting in Donbas. Ukraine has also found evidence of the same or similar hackers, usually civilian groups working as contractors for the Russian government, going after numerous government and commercial networks in Ukraine. Some of these hackers were also identified as going after targets in the United States. The hacking of cell phones used by military personnel is believed to be the cause of several accurate and fatal attacks on Ukrainian troops in Donbas who used cell phones excessively. The hackers made it possible to track the location of the phone owners and accurately fire shells or rockets at them.
These capabilities had already attracted the attention of the U.S., which was supplying Ukraine with military equipment and technical assistance. American and NATO electronic warfare experts paid close attention to what the Russians were up to in Donbas and the cell phone hack was not unexpected. When it did arrive, it was scrutinized and dissected. That led to countermeasures that were ignored by the Russians and used by Ukrainian forces fighting the 2022 invasion.
By the end of 2021 Ukraine had created a network of half a million software engineers, information specialists and other experienced Internet users to deal with Russian Cyber War attacks as well as carry out information campaigns worldwide to let the world know what was really happening in Ukraine. The Ukrainian efforts were successful, and this resulted in Ukrainian attacks against Russian networks and propaganda. The existence of these formidable Ukrainian Information and Cyber War capabilities is another reason NATO is eager to have Ukraine join the EU/European Union and after that NATO. Ukraine is already a founding member of Cyber NATO.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, April 20, 2026 - 04:54 pm: Edit

Paramilitary: Russian High School Students Study Drones
April 19, 2026: In northeastern Russia has established a school to teach teenage boys how to operate and maintain drones. There was also instruction on how to use naval drones that operate underwater. This is done in cooperation with the VOIN/Fighter training centers.
Russia has established thirteen VOIN. These are used to expose teenagers to military life by giving them military uniforms, regular military orientation and some training to prepare them for joining the military via conscription or volunteering. The VOIN training for teenagers also includes a lot of education and indoctrination about the importance of patriotism and preparing to defend Russia. This is one of the reasons Russia never refers to their invasion of Ukraine as an invasion. According to the government, the fighting in Ukraine is a Russian internal matter to suppress separatist activity by some people in southern Russia that call themselves Ukrainians and are fighting to create an independent country called Ukraine.
At one point a Russian lyceum/high school hired disabled former soldiers who had served in Ukraine. The soldiers taught the students about the many types of drones and how to care for and operate these weapons. The students were also shown videos and directed to view TV shows that presented more relevant Ukraine war videos. A state controlled TV channel regularly shows videos about the Ukraine war. Naturally these videos ignore the enormous casualties’ Russian forces have taken. Instead, videos show practical aspects of how the war is fought. There are an increasing number of videos on drone warfare.
Most civilians know what really goes on in Ukraine. Wounded or disabled Ukraine war veterans are constantly returning home and telling their friends and neighbors about the war. The high school students hear about this. While some are discouraged about eventually going to Ukraine, others are willing to accept the challenge, and large signing bonuses being offered. Large sums, over $20,000 per new soldier, used to be paid. But the state has run out of money and current high school students will have to decide if much lower signing bonuses are worth the risks. Vladimir Putin says Russia will keep fighting until Ukraine is conquered. Only time will tell how that will work out.
Since 2022, VOIN centers also trained Russian army reservists headed for Ukraine. Recently, the number of reservists called up has overwhelmed the VOIN system and reservists are sent to Ukraine without any preparation. Losses are higher for these reservists.
The VOIN training for teenagers is an enhanced version of the familiarization training many, but not all, Russian high school boys receive. Russia wants to make VOIN available everywhere without making it too expensive to maintain everywhere. That will take a considerable effort which Russia probably can’t afford.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, April 20, 2026 - 04:55 pm: Edit

Air Weapons: Tomahawk Breaks Records In Iran
April 19, 2026: In March the United States Navy launched 850 Tomahawk missiles against Iran. This was the largest number of these missiles ever used in a military operation. Previously only 802 missiles were used during the 2003 Iraq war and 325 in 1998 for operations against Libya. The current high usage could be a problem because only a few hundred of these missiles are manufactured each year. The missiles cost over $3 million each and take about 20 months to build. Last year only 57 Tomahawks were delivered. About 200 are on order for delivery in 2027. Increasing production requires several years to build the production facilities and obtain all the explosive and other materials required.
While the exact number of missiles still available is classified, it is believed that only 3,000 missiles are held in service. That might not be enough to defend Taiwan in a war with China.
These 1.3 ton missiles are 5.56 meters long and have a 310 kg warhead containing 120 kg of high explosives. Top speed is 920 kilometers an hour and maximum range is classified but believed to be nearly 2,000 kilometers. They are launched from shipborne VLS/Vertical Launch System tubes used by American and many foreign navies. China is planning a new surface warship with 200 VLS cells.
The current version, the Block IV Tactical Tomahawk, can be used against enemy ships and can loiter until a target is identified. This missile can detect targets and calculate how best to attack.
One of the most effective delivery systems for Tomahawk are the four SSGN/Cruise Missile Firing Nuclear submarines. These are Ohio class SSBNs converted to carry 154 missiles with additional space for a detachment of SEAL commandos and their equipment. Another effective delivery system is the Virginia Class SSN/Attack Submarine.
Then there’s the new Tomahawk. The RGM-109E Block IV Surface Ship Vertical Launched Tomahawk Land Attack Missile weighs 1.2 tons, is six meters long, has a range of 1,600 kilometers, a speed of 600-900 kilometers an hour, flying at an altitude of 17-32 meters and propelled by a jet engine generating only 600 pounds of thrust. Accuracy of ten meters is on a par with JDAM guided bombs. The Block IV Tomahawk can be reprogrammed in flight to hit another target and carries a vidcam to allow a missile to check on prospective targets.
The latest class of Virginia has additional space to store and launch missiles and can carry 65 missiles and torpedoes, 75 percent more than earlier Virginias. This is accomplished by adding a VPM/Virginia Payload Module to the current design. This adds 25.6 meters to the length of the sub and increases displacement to 10,400 tons. The VPM adds four more large launch tubes that can hold different sizes of missiles. For example, each of the launch tubes can carry seven Tomahawk cruise missiles or a smaller number of new missile designs in development, like the hypersonic missile. Earlier Virginias have their vertical launch tubes forward of the sail\conning tower. The VPM is added behind the sail. The VPM design was not ready when the first block 5 began construction so the first two Block 5s will lack the VPM and be the same size as earlier Virginias. These two Block 5s will have all the other additional features common to all Block 5s. This includes improved electronics and sensors, and it is believed that the passive sonar in these model Virginias have much longer and more accurate detection ranges. Block 5 will also receive a large number of other equipment upgrades.
The additional missile capacity of Block 5 and subsequent Virginias is also meant to replace the cruise missile capacity being lost as the four Ohio-Class SSGNs are retired. The success of the Ohio SSGNs led to the VPM, although it will require 22 VPM equipped Virginias to replace the Tomahawk carrying capacity of the SSGNs. This was seen as an advantage because there were few instances where an SSGN had to fire all or most of their Tomahawks. The VPM does not turn Virginia into an SSGN because all Virginias are still attack boats.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, April 20, 2026 - 04:55 pm: Edit

Warplanes: Post Cold War Combat Aircraft
April 18, 2026: After the Cold War ended some countries continued to develop fifth generation aircraft, the following included:
F-22 Raptor 2005 - Advanced stealth air superiority fighter with supercruise capability.
Eurofighter Typhoon 2003 - Multirole fighter designed for air-to-air and air-to-ground missions.
F-35 Lightning II 2015 - Stealth multirole fighter with advanced avionics and sensor fusion.
Sukhoi Su-57 2019 - Russian stealth fighter with super maneuverability and advanced avionics.
Chengdu J-20 2016 - Chinese stealth fighter designed for air dominance and precision strikes.
Dassault Rafale 2001 - French multirole fighter capable of conducting a wide range of missions.
The latest American warplanes, the F-22 and F-35, are often called 5th generation fighters. This leaves many wondering what the other generations were. The first generation of jet fighters were developed during and right after World War II, German Me-262, British Meteor, U.S. F-80, and Russian MiG-15. These aircraft were, even by the standards of the time, difficult to fly and unreliable, especially the engines. The 2nd generation 1950s included more reliable, but still dangerous to operate, aircraft like the F-104 and MiG-21. The 3rd generation 1960s included F-4 and MiG-23. The 4th generation 1970s included F-16 and MiG-29. Each generation has been about twice as expensive on average, in constant dollars as the previous one. But each generation is also about twice as safe to fly and cheaper to operate. Naturally, each generation was more than twice as effective as the previous one. The Russians developed and put into service the Su-57. Russia is developing a 6th generation warplane which will be unmanned and largely robotic.
The F-16 thus follows the path of previous best selling fighters. During The Cold War 1947-91 Russia built over 10,000 MiG-21s, and the U.S over 5,000 F-4s, but since 1991 warplane manufacturing has plummeted about 90 percent. However, the F-16 has been popular enough to keep the production lines going strong until now. The U.S. still has about 1,200 F-16s in service, about half with reserve units. F-16s built so far went to 27 countries. America has hundreds in storage, available for sale on the used warplane market. The end of the Cold War led to a sharp cut in U.S. Air Force fighter squadrons. Moreover, the new F-35 will be replacing all U.S. F-16s in the next decade. So, the U.S. has plenty of little-used F-16s sitting around, and many allies in need of low cost jet fighters.
Sixth generation aircraft in development include the American F-47, the Chinese J-36 and J-50.
The F-47 specifications are unknown. No data has been released on how much it weighs, what weapons it carries, max altitude or much else besides a top speed of Mach 2 and a range of 1,900 kilometers. The air force plans to buy up to 200 aircraft that will enter service before 2029. The F-47 will cost three times as much as the F-35.
China also has sixth generation aircraft. The J-36 is a tailless three engine fighter
The J-50 is smaller and, like the J-36, still in development
China has also developed carrier based aircraft and is seeking to adapt the J-36 for use on aircraft carriers.


FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, April 20, 2026 - 04:56 pm: Edit

Special Operations: Mossad International
April 18, 2026: During the March-April Israeli American attacks on Iran, the Israeli Mossad secret service had numerous operatives inside Iran reporting on the location and activities of Iranian leaders, scientists and the IRGC forces that guarded Iran’s most important facilities and personnel. This enabled Israeli and American air forces to destroy these personnel and their hideouts/locations quickly and efficiently. This included Iranian naval forces in the Persian Gulf attempting to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. So far, the passage has been blocked for six weeks while efforts continue to open the Strait for about 90 tankers seeking to pass. Iran allowed about twenty Chinese tankers to pass, because China is the only ally Iran has left and Iranian oil is vital for the Chinese economy.
The Israeli government continues its policy of going public with the accomplishments of Mossad foreign intelligence and Shin Bet domestic intelligence. Israel made it clear that the growing number of disclosures played an important role in deterring attacks. There was also the impact on foreign governments, and the enemy, because the disclosures made it clear what the enemy was up to and why international action was necessary. These disclosures, especially the identity and photos of foreign terrorist leaders, reinforced the personal danger these foreign terrorist leaders placed themselves in. Israel has gone after terrorist leaders in the past, usually after a particularly gruesome attack, especially when a lot of civilians were killed.
For Israels’ enemies, especially Iran, it is no secret that the Mossad remains a formidable organization. Israel has its own spy satellites and manned aircraft or UAVs that regularly obtain aerial photos to document Iranian efforts to do harm to Israel. For a long time Iran, and most other nations, believed Israel would not make public photos and other information Mossad had collected. It has long been customary for intel agencies to keep such material secret so as not to reveal methods and sources. The classic example was during World War II when the allies had a tremendous intel edge because they had cracked many German and Japanese secret codes used for wireless transmission of information to combat units and embassies. The Germans and Japanese believed that their cryptography secret codes were invulnerable to enemy decoding efforts. On paper they were correct, but the Americans and British cryptographers found ways to do it and as long as those discoveries were kept secret the intel advantage remained. To do that every use of secret enemy information had to have a plausible cover story and that worked. Post-war interrogation of enemy officials verified that those cover stories worked. So the secrecy policy continued after World War II.
Everything changed when the Internet and commercial satellite photos, available to all as in Google Earth in 2011, made it easier to go public with these revelations, because it was increasingly happening anyway as amateurs revealed the same data, often finding things that the intel agencies had missed.
Meanwhile governments began to reveal such secret data more and more after the 1960s. The U.S. revealed the aerial photos they had of Russian missiles in Cuba. While revelations like that did not become common, they did become more frequent. The Israelis were just the first to do it in a big way. Now it is common for Mossad to regularly make such revelations, because it is worth it.
For example, Mossad revealed how, during the last few years, it had provided key information that aborted fifty terrorist attacks, in twenty nations, being organized by Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant/Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, or Iran. Twelve of these attacks were against Turkey and the Turks reported arrests of the perpetrators and details of the attacks, but rarely mentioned that the key information came from Israel.
While European nations and even Russia will often mention the Mossad contribution, the current Turkish government will not. The Mossad revelation was aimed at Turkey which, until an Islamic government took over two decades ago, was an Israeli ally. The Islamic government was now losing elections and increasingly unpopular with most Turks. Mossad saw an opportunity to remind Turks who their real friends are.
The Mossad revelations also showed the worldwide reach of the Israeli intelligence agency. For example, some of the disrupted attacks were in Venezuela, where the Israeli help was appreciated. Interim Venezuelan president Juan Guaidó said he wanted to work with Israel to identify and arrest or expel Iranian backed Islamic terrorist operations in Venezuela, along with any other criminal organizations Iran created and sustains. Hezbollah has been part of the criminal underground in Venezuela for decades and has been able to expand its operations considerably since the socialist government took power in 1999.
Israel’s main intelligence agency, Mossad, Hebrew for Institute, is officially known as ha-Mossad le-Modiin ule-Tafkidim Meyuhadim; The Institute for Intelligence and Special Tasks. Mossad was established in 1951 and has always been a small organization, with fewer than 2,000 full-time staff. In its first few decades, Mossad had a major advantage over intelligence agencies in other nations. That was because in the first few years after Israel was founded in 1948 over a million Jews from all over the world moved to Israel. This proved to be a gold mine of candidates for an organization that analyzed and spied on foreign countries. All these immigrants spoke the language of their former home countries and understood the culture like natives. Thousands of these immigrants joined Mossad over the years, and some of them went back to the countries they were born and raised in to gather information and set up networks of spies. Mossad was exceptionally effective at what it did despite Israel’s small size. Mossad became the envy of much larger intelligence agencies in places like the United States and the Soviet Union. But the Israelis had to be careful because some of those spies were discovered and executed.
That first generation of Mossad spies is gone now and Israel has to work harder to maintain personnel standards Mossad has long been accustomed to. Mossad adapts and now uses the Internet to recruit Israelis with ethnic backgrounds useful for intelligence work. These recruits often have to undergo language and cultural awareness training that will please grandparents and be a lifesaver if the new agents find themselves operating in the Old Country. Israel has a growing number of Turkish Jews who are leaving the ancient world often since before Turkey became Turkey's homeland to escape the current government’s hostility towards Israel.
Discussing past operations in foreign countries is usually something intel agencies abhor. Too much risk of revealing techniques still in use. But Mossad has found that degree of secrecy counterproductive because Mossad has always gotten a lot of usually ill-informed publicity and has found that this can be useful to unnerve opponents. Thus, Mossad revealed more details than usual about the daring January 2018 operation that got half a ton of top-secret Iranian nuclear weapons program documents out of Iran and back to Israel in less than 24 hours. Israel quickly sent a senior intel official to the United States to brief the American president about the operation and arrange for the Americans to get details as quickly as the documents could be translated. Mossad went public about the operation 90 days after it took place, if only to set the record straight and further embarrass the Iranians, who were trying to deny that the operation happened at all. Mossad also saw such an operation as providing a boost for recruiting and reminding other nations that it was better to have Mossad as your friend than your foe.
Mossad is deliberately public in other ways. In the last few years, Mossad has been using Facebook, as well as its various recruiting websites, to attract the few good men and women it needs to maintain the personnel quality that has made so many foreign operations possible and successful. Mossad has been recruiting via the Internet since the 1990s but apparently noted that a lot of potential Mossad recruits regarded Facebook as their primary Internet destination. While the Mossad website goes into detail about jobs available, the Facebook approach was more general, using a flashy video. Mossad notes that it has full and part-time jobs and is able to accommodate those with disabilities as long as they have the skills Mossad seeks. Some of the specific skills sought include leatherwork, an accountant willing to travel a lot and a master carpenter able to do custom work. Mossad and other major intelligence agencies have long used Facebook for collecting information about what is going on in other countries, including recruiting local agents or informants there. But recruiting staff is another matter.
Mossad has been a lot more active recruiting new staff as well as agents since the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings. In addition, there is the continuing threat from Iran and the radicalization of more Moslems in the West, where the left has declared Israel the new Nazis and actively supports Islamic terrorist groups. That has given Mossad more work. Not surprisingly Mossad has applied the imagination and inventiveness they practice in their work by developing new recruiting methods.
A large influx of migrants from Russia and Eastern Europe in the 1980s gave Israel more Mossad candidates expert in those countries, but the biggest danger is still from Arab countries plus Iran and Pakistan. Many Israelis still learn to speak Arabic, but they usually only know the Palestinian dialects. Every Arab country has a quite distinct dialect, and cultural customs as well. So, Mossad is recruiting more energetically than it ever has had to do in the past.
Once a qualified recruit is accepted it takes years of effort and millions of dollars to turn that new hire into a useful operative. It takes about two years to fully train a Mossad katsa field intelligence officer, with the recruit being required to learn covert entry burglary, foot and vehicle surveillance/counter-surveillance, how to approach potential agents for recruitment, Arab culture and info on the militaries and security services of the Arab world, report writing, and covert communications. Operatives also have to be taught how to defend themselves with pistols, requiring an intensive crash course in how to fight with a handgun in all kinds of settings, like in a car or sitting down in a restaurant. Firearms training is more important for Israeli operatives than in other countries since Israel is in a continuous state of war and thus their operators are at more risk for being ambushed while meeting a contact.
None of this is cheap, in terms of time and money. Furthermore, espionage itself is an extremely expensive game. Lots of local sources are bribed for the information they provide, and the better the intelligence provided, the higher the price, with some highly placed foreign sources making thousands of dollars per item they deliver. Lots of introductions and recruitments take place in restaurant or bar-type settings, with the case officer picking up the tab, another psychological tactic for befriending potential agents. Finally, equipment such as bugging devices, counter bugging devices, specialized vehicles, forged passports and documents, standard-issue handguns, and a multitude of other items are not cheap either, as they often have to be specially developed by technicians in an in-house spy gear department. As a result, Mossad not only needs more field agents but also those who can come with new gadgets or improvements on old ones to help keep the field agents alive and effective.
Mossad reveals these many details on its Internet-based recruiting sites and gives potential recruits a realistic view of what they face if they make it from acceptable candidate to new recruit and finally to field operative. Espionage isn’t really glamorous, it’s more of a grind with lots of boring tasks which, if not done correctly, can get you killed or worse, as in extended and painful interrogation. The fact that Mossad has turned publicity into an asset, and not something that will get agents killed, encourages Mossad staff and frightens opponents.
FYEO