There is a YouTube Channel "Professor Gerdes Explains" that does a pretty good job with Ukraine.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, May 10, 2026 - 02:09 am: Edit

I have no doubt that Iran has some missiles of various sizes. I am not convinced that anyone knows how many. Same goes for drones of various sizes. I heard someone on a 1960 sci fi movie say “you cannot empty a bag of sugar.” Having done it, we all have, we all know that there are always a few grains stuck in folds or to the bag. When I see the legacy media crow about some leaked report that proves their case, I just shrug because nobody knows which report is true including the people who leaked it and reported it. The laptop lie proved that there were plenty of named senior officials perfectly willing to lie to smear Trump.

As for how long Iran can hold out, well, I believe “a long time“ but nobody can predict when or if the revolution will overthrow the IRGC.

As for what I post, it’s a combination of FYEO, YouTube, various media sources, and a few insiders who remember me from 25 years ago and call me to chat. I am sure some is spot on, some is click bait, some are random guesses, and now and then some are motivated opinions.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, May 10, 2026 - 11:15 am: Edit

The Royal Navy ship H.M.S. Dragon, (H.M.S. Dragon (D35) is a Type 45 destroyer (also known as the Daring-class) in the Royal Navy. Launched in 2008 and commissioned in 2012, this guided-missile destroyer is one of six sister ships designed specifically for advanced air defense and protecting fleets.) is being sent to the Persian Gulf to participate in the u.s. led operation to open the Strait of Hormuz.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, May 10, 2026 - 05:42 pm: Edit

Ukraine has developed a new version of the AN28 cargo plane configured with a Gatling gun to shoot down Russian Shaheed drones. The plane is crewed by civilians who volunteered. The plane would be vulnerable to any Russian fighter, or any flying vehicle with any kind of weapon, but Ukraine air defenses keep those out of. Ukraine airspace.

The plane (and if there is not a second or third one, there soon will be) has been upgraded to carry a pair of interceptor drones, (at $1000, vastly cheaper than Sidewinders or even stingers) to improve its engagement option. This has combined with other new systems
to push the number of Shaheeds reaching targets well below 10 percent.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, May 11, 2026 - 09:53 am: Edit

United 24 interviewed a 50 year old Vietnamese man captured on the front. Forced to sign a contract to avoid jail on a minor offense, and sent to Russia to fight in Ukraine, he served as a cook because he could not speak Russian. He insisted he had never been issued a weapon. Reportedly beaten many times, one day he and three other Vietnamese draftees were forced to walk toward the Ukraine lines to draw fire so Russia could identify Ukrainian battle positions. Two others disappeared and the third killed himself. He wandered in no man’s land until he was found by a Ukrainian patrol. He did not want to be exchanged or sent to Vietnam as he would be forced back into combat. Instead he wanted to stay in Ukraine and find a job. Then go home only when the war was over.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, May 11, 2026 - 10:47 am: Edit

DAWG is the newest part of the US military. Formed in 2025 in response to the Ukraine War, the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group is in charge of drones and AI. The point is to coordinate all autonomous technologies so that all drones for all branches use compatible technologies. DAWG’s budget was only a few million in 2025, $225 million in 2026, and exploding in the gigantic $1.5 trillion 2027 budget to over $54 billion, more than the Marine Corps. This does include absorbing many existing budget items, not all new spending.

DAWG will ensure that all drones made by all contractors can be controlled by the same AI command architecture. This is controversial, no service wants THEIR drone redesigned by a committee.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, May 11, 2026 - 11:08 am: Edit

Iran’s counter proposal for peace was rejected by Trump as ridiculous. Like previous Iranian fantasies, it includes the US paying to replace or repair anything damaged or destroyed by US attacks, Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz including what is now UAE and Oman territorial waters, the immediate end of sanctions, the immediate end of the blockade, the immediate removal of all US forces from the region, the immediate release of frozen Iranian funds, and making God Loves The Ayatollah the US national anthem. Oh, yeah, I forgot the part about Trump going to prison as a war criminal.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Monday, May 11, 2026 - 11:39 am: Edit

DAWG sounds like an excellent way to kill innovation.

Ukraine took a different approach. Everybody designed their own drones in their own way, and the best have risen to the top.

By Douglas Lampert (Dlampert) on Monday, May 11, 2026 - 02:47 pm: Edit

DAWG also most likely kills any aquisition of foriegn built systems, as they won't have compatible controls.

And, assuming that the control system is classified, it finishes off what little use there is of commercial off the shelf tech for US drones.

I'm not sure how this works on small tactical drones, if everything works off the same control system, does that mean that the AI command architecture has to be fielded to the front line, or does every drone have to have the radio power and range to go through satelites (that wouldn't be a significant vulnerability, would it?).

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, May 11, 2026 - 04:49 pm: Edit

Small tactical drones are under a separate command office that has the attitude of "who has an idea? Let's try it."

By Douglas Lampert (Dlampert) on Monday, May 11, 2026 - 05:00 pm: Edit

I'm reassured, as the DAWG scheme may work well for the larger, long ranged drones; and commercial off the shelf and foriegn origin systems both tend toward small tactical.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, May 11, 2026 - 05:09 pm: Edit

In theory, the plan is apparently to avoid the complaints last generation when Air Force planes could not talk to Army ground units or to Navy ships.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 - 09:11 am: Edit

Brief note: the Navy released its shipbuilding plan yesterday. The BBG "battleship" is now listed as a BBGN nuclear-powered "battleship" (someone apparently realized that the demands of all those planned energy weapons requires a nuclear powerplant). Planned procurement is one in FY2028, one in FY2030, and one in FY2031, with some dozen more by FY2055.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 - 10:47 am: Edit

According to CoPilot (sources cited - but take this AI generated summary for what it is worth):

---

Quote:

U.S. Navy’s Nuclear-Powered Trump-Class Battleship

The U.S. Navy has officially confirmed that its next-generation Trump-class battleship will be nuclear-powered, marking a major shift in U.S. surface combatant design USNI News+1.
Program Overview

Official designation: BBG (X) or BBGN (nuclear-powered guided-missile battleship) www.twz.com.

Announced: December 2025 by President Donald Trump; confirmed in the Navy’s FY2027 30-year shipbuilding plan Interesting Engineering.

Role: High-end surface combatant for long-range strike, fleet command-and-control, missile defense, and sustained operations in contested environments like the Indo-Pacific Army Recognition.

Not a destroyer replacement: Designed to complement rather than replace Arleigh Burke-class destroyers USNI News+1.

Design & Capabilities

Size: 35,000–41,000 tons; 840–880 ft long Wikipedia+1.

Speed: >30 knots Wikipedia.

Crew: 650–800 Wikipedia.
Propulsion: Nuclear reactor for unlimited range and high power generation www.twz.com.

Armament:

12 cells for nuclear-capable cruise missiles (SLCM-N) Wikipedia.

128 cells for conventional prompt strike missiles Wikipedia.

2 × RIM-116 RAM CIWS launchers Wikipedia.

1 × 32 MJ railgun (potentially) Wikipedia.

2 × Mk45 5"/62-caliber guns Wikipedia.

4 × Mk38 30 mm guns Wikipedia.

Potential directed-energy weapons Wikipedia.
Aviation: Capable of carrying V-22 Ospreys and future vertical lift helicopters Wikipedia.

Procurement Plan

Quantity: 15 ships over 30 years (FY2028–FY2055) www.twz.com+1.

Cost: ~$17.5B per ship before sustainment; total lifecycle cost projected at $500–700B Army Recognition.

Schedule: First ship contract award April 2028, construction start August 2028, delivery August 2036 Army Recognition.

Strategic Rationale

Navy officials argue the nuclear-powered battleship will:

Provide longer endurance and higher speed than conventional ships.

Accommodate advanced weapon systems for modern warfare.
Serve as a survivable forward command platform in high-intensity conflicts USNI News+1.

Context

This is the first U.S. Navy nuclear-powered surface combatant since the 1990s, when the USS Long Beach and USS Bainbridge were decommissioned www.twz.com. The program replaces the long-stalled DDG (X) destroyer design, which the Navy says involved capability compromises Interesting Engineering.

In summary: The Trump-class BBGN is a large, heavily armed, nuclear-powered battleship designed to dominate future naval warfare, with a focus on long-range strike, fleet command, and sustained operations in contested waters.

---

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 - 01:34 pm: Edit

I remember that Zubrin guy saying that the problem with a Mars program is you had to continue it through multiple presidents, and every second or third one cancelled the program.

One wonders if the putative New Iran Deal, the Battleship, the drone branch, the ball room, and no end of other programs survive the next president or the one after that.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 - 01:45 pm: Edit

Air Weapons: French Submarine Tests American Drone
May 12, 2026: During testing, a submerged submarine of the French Navy launched and retrieved an American Naval Drone in an experimental procedure.
The March test involved the use of an American Navy Razorback underwater drone from a submerged French Suffren-class nuclear-powered attack submarine off the coast of Toulon, France. This established that the submarine’s removable dry deck shelter can be used for underwater drone operations. The drone conducted oceanographic measurements during the operation. The tests explored the capability for use of the drone in operations.
The French Navy’s project was developed alongside the U.S. submarine force, which shared drone specifications and recovery procedures. French forces developed the test and the French Directorate General of Armament provided technical expertise.
This successful launch is a testament to the strong partnership between the French and U.S. navies. The ability to deploy American assets from allied submarines expands our operational reach and enhances our collective undersea warfare capabilities. It demonstrates the two navy’s shared commitment to maritime security and stability.
The exercise highlights the versatility of both the French attack submarine platform and the Razorback drone system. By integrating these advanced technologies, the two navies are developing new tactics and procedures for undersea operations.
Meanwhile, the British Royal Navy is advancing its mine hunting capabilities by converting a dock landing ship to operate various drones for mine hunting operations. Dock landing ship RFA Lyme Bay\ L3007 was brought out in Gibraltar with systems and equipment to enable it to be the Royal Navy’s mothership for an array of hi-tech MCM/Mine CounterMeasures equipment. After it is outfitted with the technology, Lyme Bay will be able to store, prepare, deploy and recover a variety of autonomous and crewless technology, from underwater drones to mine hunting boats, acting as a manned mothership for drones.
RFA Lyme Bay is preparing for a potential mine hunting mothership position and is a perfect example of building a hybrid Navy, one where crewed ships and high tech uncrewed systems work together seamlessly to keep British sailors safe and the seas secure. Mine countermeasures have always been crucial work, and employing autonomous technology ensures that the Royal Navy remains effective at underwater defense.
Lyme Bay, from late 2025 to early March this year, was left in an inactive status in Gibraltar before being reactivated shortly after the Israeli American war against Iran began. It is one of four Bay-class dock landing ships that provide amphibious and sealift capability for Britain. One of the ships was decommissioned and sold to Australia in 2011, entering service with the Royal Australian Navy as HMAS Choules/L100. RFA Mounts Bay/L3008 returned to service this year following a refit, while RFA Cardigan Bay/L3009 is in drydock, pending a refit.
The Royal Navy announced that it accepted the delivery of the second of four remotely controlled boats to conduct mine hunting operations, with Adventure joining the in-service Ariadne as part of an Anglo-French collaboration employing the latest technological advances to deal with the threat of mines.
Adventure is classed as a primary system in the MMCM/Maritime Mine Counter Measures program and is capable of carrying a payload comprising other uncrewed survey and mine warfare systems, such as the SAMDIS towed synthetic aperture Multiview sonar, which is used to map the seabed.
Together with the primary system is a portable operations center from where mine warfare experts direct the mission, according to the release. The boat was designed to allow operators to clear mines in seas up to State 4 and supports detailed seabed mapping in complex maritime settings.
Together the MMCM program, delivered by the international group Organisation Conjointe de Coopération en matière d’Armement/Organization for Joint Armament Cooperation, introduces a modern autonomous mine countermeasures solution, built around advanced crewless systems and an expanded mission suite designed to enhance safety and operational effectiveness at sea. Initial MMCM systems deliveries to France and the U.K. occurred in 2024 and 2025.
FYEO

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 - 01:46 pm: Edit

I am highly skeptical about multi-billion dollar ships. Drone vulnerabilities.

In a recent exercise, Ukraine defeated NATO naval task forces five out of five times.

So if it gets killed, we are probably better off.

By Alan Trevor (Thyrm) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 - 01:50 pm: Edit

Apologies if this is too political, but...

I think Trump blundered when he associated himself so closely with a new "battleship". If he had tamped down his own ego a bit and made it seem like more of a "bipartisan" project, perhaps (if possible) getting some support from a few Democratic senators or congressmen with major shipbuilding interests in their own states or districts, I believe there would be a better chance of some of these ships actually being completed.

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 - 01:58 pm: Edit

1) Iran New Deal; likely yes, if only to avoid a repeat of a less then conclusive war.

2) BBGN; With a projected launch date of 2028, some of these will be built. The big question will be if they are a major class, or a handful, like the Zumwalts.

3) Ball Room; We really do need an event space, tents on the lawn for State dinners is not a practical idea for many reasons, and the East Wing has already been demolished. If the next President is not part of the Trump wing of the GOP, a GOP President will pause work, and consult with the preservation people and make minor changes. A Democrat will be similar, only doing more extensive changes.

By Alan Trevor (Thyrm) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 - 02:05 pm: Edit

Adm;

Check out Ted Fay's from 10:47 AM. According to his source, 2028 is when the first contract will awarded and construction will start. If his source is correct (and it strikes me as, at least, plausible), the Navy won't take delivery of that first ship until 2036.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 - 02:09 pm: Edit

Alan,

I think you make a very good point.

Others will disagree, but looking at the record, the President says or releases something intended to infuriate opponents, confuse supporters and or just to attract the interest of independents.

Then, when its time to nail down whatever it is that he really wants, he can openly and consciously walk back (or totally ignore it if convenient) to get to “the deal”.

This works for the president in a number of ways, he controls the news of the day so no matter what the opposition wants to talk about, its what the president does or says that gets the lead in all of the newspapers, television or internet.

Second, all of the fake news that the opposition hopes will go viral to embarrass or discredit the administration dies of lack of oxygen because everyone on line of consuming news looks at the President first.

Third, by the time most peoples get tired of whatever the president said yesterday or before gets replaced by some new juicy news leader as the process gets repeated as needed.

And just to remind everyone, the “Trump Class Battleship” was pitched by the Then Secretary of the Navy (before he was fired for insubordination by the Secretary of War.)

No doubt the idea appeals to his vanity, but is not likely to be an important piece of the President’s legacy.

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 - 02:17 pm: Edit

Thyrm;

Fair, a lot of the hype on these has been first launch in 2028, which is extremely optimistic. IF they threw enough money at it, may be possible for a hull that would need a lot of fixes later.

By Ted Fay (Catwhoeatsphoto) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 - 02:27 pm: Edit

IMO a BBGN is, first and foremost, a political tool. A symbol of America as a technologically dominant superpower. Don't underestimate that utility (or vulnerability if it is destroyed).

IMO a whole mess load of smaller ships carrying even more mess loads of drones would be more effective at projecting power and also the loss of one would have a much lower impact on the Navy's combat effectiveness. I wouldn't want a fleet of BBGNs.

I could see building one or two BBGNs to fill said political function. But 12? Pass.

Also, the odds of "the other party" taking power again in the next 8 years is fairly good, given how narrow the balance of power is. It's unlikely such an expensive project would survive a power flip.

In other words, my opinion is that I can see utility in the BBGN project, despite its costs and issues, but I'm putting my money down on the slot that says not one of the ships will be completed.

By Shawn Hantke (Shantke) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 - 04:31 pm: Edit

Is China already building Battleships? https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2026/04/new-super-battleship-under-construction-in-china/

By Shawn Hantke (Shantke) on Tuesday, May 12, 2026 - 04:32 pm: Edit

Portugal has built a Drone Carrier. https://www.euronews.com/2026/01/29/portugal-builds-europes-first-dedicated-drone-carrier-d-joao-ii