In other news, there was an interview in Taiwan of a former “family planning” consultant (and CCCP member) who emigrated out of China (Jiang Jung, although later in the article he was identified as Li-jiang jung) who presented a re interpretation of what has happened to the China demographics since the 1970’s.

The first point was there is a paradox between the CCCP announcement in the 1980’s that basically said that 800 million population in China was “bad” and coincided with the decision to adopt a one child per family fertility rate, and the subsequent announcements in 2015 and 2022 that rescinded the one child policy and replaced it (respectively) with a “2 child per family” and most recently the “three child per family” standard.

The second point, was that the actual rate of births per child bearing females dropped to 1.18 in year 2000 (based on analysis of the number of live births reported by the government) did not correlate with census data. In 2015 the number of live births dropped to 1.10 before returning to 1.18 in 2022. Currently, the live birth rate in China is reported as 1.3.

Actual total live births back in the period between 1988 and 1990 was just over 25 million per year. 2024 the total live births reported was less than 7 million.

The last point in the interview was the conclusion that China’s actual population is 850 million, not 1.4 million as per the Government’s census.

Again, the stated reason was that government bureaucrats did not want to report a decline in population, and simply adjusted the reported figures on the assumption that the numbers were under reported and not actually correct.

There as another taiwan report that analysis of chinas business and commerce reports may not be accurate. (This pertains to production of Electric vehicles, domestic GDP and food production.)

The conclusion made the point that this closely mirrors what was happening in the former U.S.S.R. In the mid 1980’s just before the collapse of the U.S.S.R.back when George Bush (‘41) was in office (1988-1992).

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 - 09:00 am: Edit

"One reason the communists won the civil war against the Nationalists in the 1940s was because the Nationalists were much more corrupt. "

My Grandfather was a LTC intelligence officer in CBI. After the war he was ordered to the Pentagon (to his dismay) and told to write a report on the ongoing Chinese civil war. His conclusion that the Commies would win because of Nationalist corruption was NOT well received and sped his return to civilian life.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 - 09:16 am: Edit

Mike

I would guess the issue of Nationalist Corruption wasn't actually the corruption - but post War, the Nationalist might not have been US Allies?

(i.e. The Marcos of the Phillippines will probably* go down in history of the most Corrupt leaders - but as they was Allies of the West, it was accepted)?

* - If I get time, that would be a good project - who stole most from their Nation (based on GDP at that time, so it's fair).


P.S. Could be Military Related at some point - was anyone able to buy in the initial offering any SpaceX shares? With so 'few'** shares offered, it was clearly going to be a bun fight!!!

** - Yes I know it was one of the largets IPO's ever, but with only circa 10% of the shares released, they probably could have sold 30%, due to the likely demand over the next 6 months?

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 - 10:13 am: Edit

Paul: there's roughly zero chance that I'd buy stock in a company that has market valuation of over a hundred times the company's revenue.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 - 10:15 am: Edit

>> bun fight

Thanks for this one, Paul. I just looked it up and and spent the last 10 minutes laughing. I lived and worked in the UK briefly years ago, and never heard this expression (although I did learn a few others!). And I love the longer version:

"Couldn't organise a bun fight in a bakery" :-)

--Mike

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 - 01:29 pm: Edit

Mike

Well there is also the more aggresive phrase "Hand Bags at 5 paces/at dawn " (although haven't that in a while!!).

Jessica

Well that hasn't stopped several firms

I do agree its losses are a concern -and whay the S&P 500 'Index' said no to it's inclusion.

The Trillion Dollar question might be will it ever make a profit and if it does - it could be that succesful.... and so it might warrant that valuiation?

Several mights and could in that sentance though!!!

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 - 02:30 pm: Edit

Infantry: Ukrainian Ground Combat Drones
June 16, 2026: The Ukrainian military is developing a new generation of ground robots that will kill or deter Russian infantry and reduce Ukrainian casualties. Earlier ground combat drones encountered terrified Russian soldiers seeking to surrender to the drone. The Ukrainian remote operator made it happen and that’s how these Russian soldiers survived the war that has already killed, disabled or disappeared over 1.4 million of their comrades.
Earlier this year Ukraine developed the 4x4 wheeled Zmiy Droid 12.7 ground robot. Weighing about half a ton, the Zmiy chassis is built to survive drone attacks and anti-personnel mines. Zmiy is controlled by a remote operator using the onboard video camera while the vehicle moves, and to detect enemy targets to fire on with the 12.7mm machine-guns. Ukraine has developed and put into service several ground combat drone vehicles. Ukrainian troops use these drones, including Zmiy, with increasing frequency as operators and unit commanders become more familiar with these weapons and what they can do. The primary mission of Zmiy is reconnaissance and replacing soldiers during combat situations.
Last year Ukraine began equipping their combat brigades with ground based combat and transport robots in addition to drones. The ground robots come in different versions. Some are used for planting and removing landmines. Other drones advance along the ground while firing remotely controlled machine guns. These systems can fire accurately at moving targets during the day and at night. There are also drones for transporting supplies to the front lines and armored ones carrying casualties back to first aid stations and field hospitals. The growing number of Ukrainian drone systems were developed based on reports from the front line troops. Those ideas were quickly put to use because of wartime urgency.
In 2024 Ukraine created a new branch of their military, the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Force. This is in addition to the Ukrainian Air Force that consists of manned aircraft. This Drone Force does not control the drones. Ukrainian forces use regularly but instead contributes to developing new drone models and organizing mass production for those new models that are successful. Such drones have been an unexpected development that had a huge impact on how battles in Ukraine's current war are fought. Drones were successful because they were cheap, easily modified, and expendable.
Both Russian and Ukrainian forces were soon using cheap quadcopter drones controlled by soldiers a kilometer or more away using First Person Viewing or FPV goggles to see what the video camera on the drone can see. Each of these drones carries half a kilogram of explosives, so it can instantly turn the drone into a flying bomb that can fly into a target and detonate. This is an awesome and debilitating weapon when used in large numbers over the combat zone. If a target isn’t moving or requires more explosive power that the drones can supply, one of the drone operators can call in artillery, rocket, or missile fire, or even an airstrike. Larger, fixed wing drones are used for long range, often over a thousand kilometers, operations against targets deep inside Russia.
These small drones are difficult to shoot down until they get close to the ground, and the shooter is close enough, as in less than a few hundred meters, away to successfully target a drone with a bullet or two and bring it down. Troops are rarely in position to do this, so most of these drones are able to complete their mission, whether it is a one-way attack or a reconnaissance and surveillance mission. The recon missions are usually survivable and enable the drone to be reused. All these drones are constantly performing surveillance, which means that both sides commit enough drones to maintain constant surveillance over a portion of the front line, to a depth, into enemy territory, of at least a few kilometers. Ukrainian drones have pretty much ended Russian motorized transport with 20-30 kilometers of the front lines.
This massive use of FPV-armed drones revolutionized warfare in Ukraine, and both sides are producing as many as they can. Ukrainian drone proliferation began when many individual Ukrainians or small teams designed and built drones. The drones served as potential candidates for widespread use and mass production. This proliferation of designers and manufacturers led to rapid evolution of drone capabilities and uses. Those who could not keep up were less successful in combat and suffered higher losses.
One countermeasure that can work for a while is electronic jamming of the drones’ control signal. Drone guidance systems are constantly modified or upgraded to cope with this, and many use multiple modes of communications. Most drones have flight control software that sends drones with jammed control signals back to where they took off from to land for later use. The jammers are on the ground and can be attacked by drones programmed to home in on the jamming signal. Countermeasures can be overcome and the side that can do this more quickly and completely has an advantage. That advantage is usually temporary because both sides are putting a lot of effort into keeping their combat drones effective on the battlefield.
Western armed forces, after a century of trying, still cannot get the air force people up there to come down and get a much needed reality check on what is happening down below where battles and wars are decided. Meanwhile the proliferation of surveillance and armed drones have in many cases replaced conventional air forces, at least for operations close to the ground and requiring more urgency to find and attack targets.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 - 02:30 pm: Edit

Intelligence: Secret Israeli Outposts In Iraq
June 16, 2026: Since last year Israel has been preparing two small bases in Iraq’s western desert, with the help and knowledge of the Iraqi government. These bases were there to observe and report on what was happening across the border in Iran. This operation was but one of many that monitor, and sometimes disrupt, activities inside Iran.
Israel has long maintained a network of operatives, most of them Iranian, inside Iran but also in other nations that border Iran, like Azerbaijan, or the UAE/United Arab Emirates in the Persian Gulf or Somaliland, an independent state north of Somalia.
Israel has long considered Iran its primary security concern, accounting for about 80 percent of Israeli planning and preparations for future conflicts. It’s not just Iran itself but also the foreign operations Iran undertakes against Israel, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and numerous other overseas operations intermittently created to hurt Israel.
The Israeli use of operatives inside Iran enables Israeli airstrikes to kill key military, scientific, diplomatic, religious and political personnel. Israel has also killed key Iranians and Islamic terrorists worldwide. Details of what the Israeli operative network inside Iran did during the recent war won’t be known until the war is over, perhaps only after several years of peace. Israel certainly had real-time knowledge of the locations of all the senior Iranian leaders for the last day of peace and the first few days of war in January and used it to kill all of them.
Israel likes to keep its secrets, as this is a matter of life or death for Israel as well as their foreign operatives.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 - 02:34 pm: Edit

I found out where the claim that Trump was paying Iran $300 Billion came from. Arab countries have offered to invest that amount in projects inside Iran, but only if Iran stops supporting terrorist groups. (Translation: Iran won't get a dime.) They aren't giving Iran money; they're buying/owning stuff inside Iran. I wouldn't trust the Iranian government to not just seize my property any time it wants, but this scheme is designed to make Iran part of the economic world and show them that profit from men is better than a mission from God. Will it work? (spoiler: no)

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 - 03:15 pm: Edit

Steve Petrick and I were having fun yesterday designing a drone-bomber attack on the Russian highway system. We came up with this.

Pick a likely spot.

Just about sunset, have a swarm of drone bombers appear over the site scattering small anti-personnel land mines, caltrops (spiked things that will picture tires and feet), glass bottles of gasoline, and harmless distraction items that will complicate and confuse the mine-clearing engineers. We went back and forth on including one or two real anti-tank mines. I also wanted to included timed fragmentation bombs.

Then you have a couple of recon drones circle the area and let us know when things start happening.

When trucks and other vehicles hit the mines, sent in a swarm of kamikaze drones with small anti-truck warheads and bomber drones with hand grenades and (for extra credit) more anti-personnel mines and other things extending the "polluted zone" to include vehicles that stopped short. We might also include one or two items that broadcast loud sounds of explosions and gunfire, and some relatively harmless lightweight explosives and pyrotechnics just to add to the confusion and panic.

Then about 30 minutes later have a medium size artillery rocket with a 500kg warhead land right in the middle.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 - 07:32 pm: Edit

Throughout the 2020s, there have been 75 instances of continental-scale GPS jamming, happening for 3-5 seconds at the same time of certain days. It's hit China's BeiDou navigation system, too.

Researchers have been trying to hunt down the source of the interference for the past couple of years... and about a week ago, they pinpointed it: Cosmos 2546, a Russian military satellite that is, along with five other satellites in highly-elliptical orbits, part of their missile warning system.

What's going on is one of two things: either the Russians are conducting periodic tests of GPS/BeiDou-jamming capabilities, or it's being used for microburst communications (that the U.S. and/or China wouldn't try to jam, because doing so would jam our navigation systems).

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 - 08:48 pm: Edit

Reuters reports on the Trump/ Iran deal. Half of the $300 B is already committed.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 - 08:55 pm: Edit

Committed doesn't mean the checks have been written, it just means a suitable project has been found. The Arabs have made clear that no money moves until Iran proves it is totally giving up it's support for terrorism. The Reuters report is a typical tactic, absolutely true but not the whole truth which is substantially different.

By Michael F Guntly (Ares) on Tuesday, June 16, 2026 - 10:17 pm: Edit

Per FYEO: Intelligence: Secret Israeli Outposts In Iraq

“Since last year Israel has been preparing two small bases in Iraq’s western desert….”

This statement confused me. Wouldn’t western Iraq be a somewhat distant location for bases “....to observe and report on what was happening across the border in Iran”, which is east of Iraq?

Can someone help me understand this?

Thanks in advance.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Wednesday, June 17, 2026 - 10:42 am: Edit

As a note, that $300 billion fund is a private investment fund, not a taxpayer-funded thing. From the Reuters article: "The new fund is a private investment vehicle, not a reconstruction or reparations programme and will not include any government money or grants, the source said, adding that companies based in the U.S., the Gulf Arab states, Asia, South America and Africa have agreed to commit financing." It also notes that, "The fund will not be created or become operational until a final and satisfactory deal is concluded. The memorandum of understanding, once signed, is intended to structure the process over the next 60 days. 'It'll only be created once the final deal is signed,' the source said. 'During these 60 days the fund administrators will work with Iranians and investors to plan and scope projects.'"

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Wednesday, June 17, 2026 - 10:48 am: Edit

Western Iraq? Either a FARP, Early Warning Radar, or a typo.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Wednesday, June 17, 2026 - 11:23 am: Edit

F.Y.E.O. Report stated that Iran had (operative word… it appears that the U.S. doesn’t have an accurate itemized list of the ballistic missile inventory that Iran had left at the time the report was made…) ballistic missiles.

If Iran still possessed ballistic missiles, it is logical that Israel would both want and need an early warning radar system in place.

Better tracking would improve Israel’s ability to engage and destroy incoming Iranian ballistic missiles.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, June 17, 2026 - 02:50 pm: Edit

Unique Attrition Trends In Ukraine
June 17, 2026: The Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief recently declared that Russian losses are about 3.5 times higher. Worse, the Russians lose about eight soldiers for each Ukrainian loss. Russia has lost 1.4 million soldiers killed, disabled and missing. Russia lost most of its modern armored vehicles and specialized equipment, including air defenses protecting vital targets throughout western Russia, such as petroleum storage and refining sites as well as manufacturers producing essential components for vehicles, drones, radars and many types of electronic equipment.
In Russia itself a growing number of civilian hospitals are being taken over by the military to treat wounded soldiers. So many doctors and other medical personnel are tending these casualties that civilians have to wait for non-emergency care and non-critical surgeries are delayed.
Despite the medical problems, the government is trying to distract and cheer up the people. Last month President Vladimir Putin announced this year’s 32-hour-long Easter truce in his war against Ukraine in the same manner as in spring 2025. It was, however, not a forerunner to a lasting ceasefire, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested. Neither was it a signal of Moscow’s interest in resuming talks on a peace deal, despite some cautious sponsorship in the mainstream media. President Putin merely sought to pacify public opinion, where support for continuing the war is very weak, particularly among younger age groups. He also found it timely to move in step with the pause in the Gulf conflict, which Russian experts did not expect to last even two weeks. The talks in Pakistan and the consequences of their breakdown are attracting prime international attention, so little attention has lately been given to the changes in Russia’s seemingly static war against Ukraine, which could be decisive.
The Russian Spring offensive in Donbas has yielded no territorial gains and has even suffered several retreats driven by Ukrainian counterattacks. Official Russian commentary ignores this setback, but partisan bloggers have been making a lot of noise about the lack of reserves needed to regain momentum. The main cause of this transformation of the battlefield is the new edge Ukraine has gained in drone warfare by combining saturation of the tactical zone with FPV/First Person View drones and mid-range strikes, so that the effective kill-zone is expanded to some 120 kilometers from the front line. The balance of territorial advances may have shifted slightly, but it effectively undercuts Putin’s claim that the whole Donbas will be occupied either through a deal or by force.
The failed attacks and crippled logistics result in record numbers of casualties in the Russian army. The documented number of 208,755 fatalities hardly makes half of the real losses of life. Since the start of the year, Russia’s commercial recruitment system has been unable to attract a sufficient number of new recruits and foreign mercenaries to compensate for mounting losses, and this gap keeps widening. Neither the spreading campaign to recruit students, nor the pressure on the fresh draftees conscripted since April 1 to sign contracts for combat units, can yield the required volume of manpower. Regional authorities are compelled to raise bonuses for signing contracts, but the supply of volunteers still cannot meet demand. These payments add considerably to regional budget crises, and taxation increases bring widespread discontent, worsened by the underfunding of responses to various local crises, such as the foot-and-mouth epidemic in Southern Siberia.
Ukraine in March managed to gain an advantage over Russia in the number of long-distance drone attacks too, setting the mark above 7,300 strikes. The data on these activities is quite unreliable, but the devastating impact of Ukrainian drone hits on Russian energy infrastructure, including platforms in the Caspian Sea, is beyond doubt. Repeated attacks on oil terminals in Novorossiysk, Primorsk, and Ust-Luga have effectively denied Russia the opportunity to profit from the spike in oil prices driven by the conflict in the Gulf. A new feature of Ukrainian drone warfare is the increased targeting of Russian air defense systems, including radars, which weakens the protection of many crucial assets exactly when the intensity of the threat goes up.
Russian attempts to resort to nuclear blackmail or show its strategic muscle have also notably declined. Putin has avoided any nuclear bragging in his infrequent public appearances, and partisan social media has turned to debates over the prospects of arms control. Dmitry Trenin, an advocate for nuclear escalation, has been promoted to president of the Russian International Affairs Council and has transitioned to a more sober discourse. Russia has also cut down on its hybrid attacks on its European neighbors and has refrained from any countermeasures against the arrests of its shadow fleet ships. A demarche by the Russian Foreign Ministry was the only step taken after the claim that the Baltic states opened air corridors for Ukrainian drone strikes on Primorsk and Ust-Luga, and Russian media noted that it was flatly turned down.
The first quarter of 2026 officially registered a contraction of the Russian economy, which is the strategic center of gravity in this war of attrition. The altering of statistics camouflages the true depth of the recession, but the sustained decline in investment activity ensures that the crisis will only deepen. Alarm bells about the extraordinary expansion of the budget deficit may be temporarily silenced by the expected growth in petroleum-revenues, but the volume of additional income is clearly insufficient to address the unfolding financial disaster. Putin has no plan to address the economic decline, and his plan to tax extra-high profits clashes with the reality of losses reported even by corporations enjoying the most-favored status. The total of these changes amounts to a strong new incentive for Russia to end this unwinnable war.
The top Ukrainian negotiator has therefore suggested that a compromise peace deal can be reached soon and implemented quickly. His point was instantly picked up by the Russian media. Putin, however, operates on a different rationale centered on ensuring his grasp on power. He is less concerned about the regime’s survival than, for instance, the Iranian leadership, which refuses to moderate its ambitions in the talks with the United States, but is much more obsessed with personal safety. He finds the risks of taking responsibility for ending the war, and by extension, for starting it while standing in the way of the peace process equally disturbing. Fear worsens his usual reluctance to make hard decisions, but delaying it only adds to the gravity of his political dilemma.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, June 17, 2026 - 02:55 pm: Edit

: Do Not Overestimate Russia
June 17, 2026: Now in its fifth year, the Russian war in Ukraine is stumbling towards peace. This is happening despite Russian claims that their economy, now a wartime economy, is strong and the economic sanctions imposed by the West are a minor nuisance. The Russian claims are illusions because the Russian economy was transformed, distorted and weakened by the war and the American and European sanctions, which cost the economy about half a trillion dollars. Despite all that Russia still has the fifth largest economy in the world, behind the Americans, China, India and Japan.
Because of the war, government spending went from 34 percent of GDP in 2021 to 40 percent last year. Another financial problem was Russian banks could no longer use the international fund transfer SWIFT system. Russia had to cobble together a smaller system with countries it still traded with. Manufacturing became more expensive because the sanctions prevented Russia from getting the electronic components it needed for many of its products. Substitutes could usually be obtained via smuggling or special arrangements with China that enabled them to plausibly deny providing sanctioned goods. If the Chinese were caught aiding Russia, they would be subject to sanctions.
There were other deceptions. Russia claimed that its economy grew by 12-14 percent between 2020 and 2024 when it actually shrank by eight percent. Russia also claimed its merchant shipping was still operational. What Russia was reluctant to dwell on were the additional sanction costs of insurance, ships seized and oil lost.
In Ukraine Russia could no longer provide enough new recruits to replace heavier losses. By 2026 the Ukrainians were unquestionably on the offensive. Russia has lost 1.4 million soldiers killed, disabled and missing. Russia lost most of its modern armored vehicles and it will take four or more years to rebuild. Casualties are a more serious problem, with badly wounded soldiers sent back into combat. Military police will go to the homes of wounded soldiers and take these men back to the combat zone.
Wounded and disabled troops cannot launch attacks, or provide an effective defense. Russian commanders thought that drones were still an effective weapon but the Ukrainians came up with more defensive drone interceptors and superior attack drones. Long-range Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow and St Petersburg as well as the oil storage and refining infrastructure between the Ukrainian border and those two Russian cities. Also hit were factories building components for drones, missiles and air defense systems. The last few years of Ukrainian attacks on Russian air defenses made it easier for Ukrainian attacks to be made unopposed. The Ukrainians refrained from attacking Moscow on May 9th during the World War II victory day parade. The Russians reduced the size of that parade and no combat vehicles were present, an unprecedented decision.
The personnel, equipment and capability losses have eliminated any chance of Russia defeating the Ukrainians. Russian leader Vladimir is left with one major decision, how to explain this failure to the Russian people. He’ll come up with something to say and it will be a painful speech to deliver.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, June 17, 2026 - 02:56 pm: Edit

In regards to the $300 billion investment fund, today I got what I am sure will be the first of many spam/scammer emails inviting me to invest in high-return infrastructure projects in Iran.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, June 18, 2026 - 01:20 am: Edit

A few individual members of the Russian parliament have demanded that President Putin to present a plan to end the war in Ukraine and return demobilized soldiers to good paying civilian jobs.

The main public opinion poll company has stopped publishing the results of its polls.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Thursday, June 18, 2026 - 02:00 am: Edit

Deal is signed.

Fingers crossed both sides stick to it.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Thursday, June 18, 2026 - 09:45 am: Edit

Per Steve's post of 15 June, the U.S.-Iran M.O.U. is not up for discussion.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, June 18, 2026 - 11:57 am: Edit

I saw the cover page text but the devil is in the details and there are as many things that concern me as there are that concern Jessica. Too many questions. I am busy right now with a friend in the emergency room and shuffling Leanna to an appointment while keeping one of my own but I will hunt down the full text later. It is anything but clear that an acceptable deal can e reached with religious whackos who regard lying, stalling, and cheating to be a mortal obligation. Trump is still holding the tail of a cranky housecat which refuses to get back in his box.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Thursday, June 18, 2026 - 12:58 pm: Edit

Best wishes for your friend in the E.R., Steve.