Fine, we'll give them a loan for the drones.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Saturday, July 25, 2026 - 05:47 pm: Edit

I just asked AI right now. It said:

AI Overview
European aid for Ukraine is roughly 65% in grants (or in-kind support) and 35% in loans.
Aid Breakdown
Grants and in-kind support: Make up about 65% of the total assistance provided by EU institutions and member states, which includes military gear, humanitarian aid, and refugee support.
Loans: Make up about 35% of the total, largely delivered as concessional financial and budgetary assistance, with some repayment mechanisms backed by profits from frozen Russian assets.

As a semi-hegemonic power, it would be wise for the US to be similarly generous.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Saturday, July 25, 2026 - 05:52 pm: Edit

Reasons:

1) Ukraine is lately doing a better job of defending US interests than any other country, including the US itself. (Don't believe that? How much less expensive would the cold war have been if the USSR had 25% less population, i.e. no Ukraine?)

2) Ukraine's drone tech is incredibly valuable. Paying for this just makes sense.

3) Failure to give gifts in this case makes the US look selfish and small-minded. For a hegemonic power that depends on bases and allies worldwide, that is incredibly unwise.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Saturday, July 25, 2026 - 06:06 pm: Edit

Per Zelensky just now:

I will instruct our intelligence to share with our partners the information we have regarding Russia’s new assistance to the Iranian regime. Since the beginning of July, we have recorded active Russian satellite surveillance of the Gulf states and U.S. military facilities located there. These images subsequently appear in Iran. At the same time, there is a clear correlation between Russia’s satellite imagery of these sites and Iranian strikes – both before the attacks, in preparation for them, and afterward, to assess the damage inflicted.

On July 19 and 20 alone, four air bases fell within the area of interest of Russian satellites – two in Bahrain, one in Jordan, and one in Kuwait. The purpose is clear. None of us in the world should turn a blind eye to one very simple fact: evil always seeks ways to make things worse and spread further. Russia must be stopped. This war must be stopped. Pressure on the aggressor must work.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Saturday, July 25, 2026 - 10:32 pm: Edit

I am sure the US knew all of that, but it's nice to see Zelenski's heart is in the right place.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Saturday, July 25, 2026 - 10:34 pm: Edit

C17 question. Is there a people hatch on the top of the plane so that (when on the ground) people could go walk around on the roof and check for damage or something? Don't try to look it up. I just need someone who has actually been in/around one and knows.

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Sunday, July 26, 2026 - 12:35 am: Edit

I really like the 90 Bn Euro loan to Ukraine. They only need repay it if the Russians pay war reparation to them, and the security for the loan is the Frozen Russian money, about 200Bn, in Belgian banks.
Update: The intent was to use Russian assets as backing but there was too much resistance to it from Belgium. They use the Eu budget instead. BTW, the interest of the frozen assets are going to Kiev.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, July 26, 2026 - 02:30 am: Edit

My plan is that half of the production of "firestrike" drones will be offered for sale to Ukraine, which will be paid a royalty for each drone built that the US keeps or sells to someone else. Ukraine can buy the drones with their royalties and with the loan. One caveat. American engineers will be looking for ways to improve the drones, so the Firestrike-2027 drones will be newer/better than the Firestrike-2026 drones, but we will during 2027 mostly sell Ukraine Firestrike-2026s from the US war reserve stocks, which will be replaced by new Firestrike-2027s. If Taiwan or Belgium want to buy drones, they can also buy the oldest ones from the inventory, so our army always has the newest and best.

I will also offer another parallel system. Any US company can make a deal to license-build Ukrainian Firepoint drones of any kind the Ukrainians want the company to build. [Note that Amarillo Drone Bureau could sign up to build one drone a week on the conference table with parts we buy from Amazon.] Most of the production will be sold to Ukraine (using that loan thing) without export taxes but the US Army will have the option to deal with the companies and buy some of the drones (above the Ukrainian contracts, not reducing them) if it needs them for training or inventory. The independent companies can make whatever deal they want/can with Ukraine regarding technology improvements. If the US ends up in World War Drone, it will have lots of production capacity.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, July 26, 2026 - 02:35 am: Edit

GROUND INVASION OF IRAN?
I am starting to hear chatter from "old friends" of a plan to invade Iran with two mech divisions (yes, two, not twenty) on the not entirely crazy theory that (a) the Iranian military is about ready to fold up and (b) with all our air power the idea that Iran could seriously fight even two divisions is laughable. It's not as crazy as we thought. We've all dismissed "boots on the ground" as absurd as it would take a year to mobilize National Guard divisions, but if this is indeed a "kick in the door and the whole house will collapse" sort of thing, it should work. We could bully Iraq into playing ball or use Kuwait as a forward operating base. Nuts, huh? or crazy like a fox?

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Sunday, July 26, 2026 - 06:06 am: Edit

If that is the plan, I sure hope the US has suddenly gotten with the program on the use of FPV drones.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Sunday, July 26, 2026 - 06:08 am: Edit

And if you go with that drone plan, realize that a likely outcome is that Ukraine will continue to improve the designs, while the US will find ways to increase their cost.

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Sunday, July 26, 2026 - 11:33 am: Edit

SVC? It's been my understanding that the War Department makes contingency plans for things that are downright outrageous.

Heck, I'd be willing to bet we even have plans for what to do if Israel launches Nukes on Iran and we're called upon to punish them for doing so.

I hope like crazy that we don't send boots into Iran, but if we have to, I hope like crazy we've got the best possible plan for doing so.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Sunday, July 26, 2026 - 11:59 am: Edit

SVC, Ukraine has designed drones to be low cost.

Why would they be buying US made drones, given the labor costs here?

Your program just appears to want access to Ukraine drone tech without a true reciprocal return for them. Under your program we basically gets a captive market with Ukraine paying license fees to itself.

If I was Ukraine, I'd be talking to Taiwan, India, Vietnam... to access their inexpensive labor markets. Taiwan, India & Vietnam have China looming over them.

Maybe the electric brains from Taiwan, and the bodies & assembly in Vietnam/ India???

By Chuck Strong (Raider) on Sunday, July 26, 2026 - 05:23 pm: Edit

JA: I can tell you from my experience that the DoW has OPLANS for just about every contingency (numbering in the thousands) including dealing with recalcitrant enemies.

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Sunday, July 26, 2026 - 07:20 pm: Edit

The DoW has had a contingency plan for Iran since at least 1980. Supposedly to defend them against Russia, no doubt with a number of actions noted.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Sunday, July 26, 2026 - 09:14 pm: Edit

The obvious answer here on providing military material to Ukraine is a latter-day Lend-Lease: we provide them with stuff in exchange for basing rights.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Sunday, July 26, 2026 - 09:27 pm: Edit

Steve: as it happens, I got to tour a brand-new C-17 when I was stationed at Rhein-Main AB...and it did indeed have a top hatch, just aft of the cockpit, allowing access to the top of the fuselage.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, July 27, 2026 - 04:08 am: Edit

Thanks, top hatch, got it

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, July 27, 2026 - 08:08 am: Edit

Ukrainian drones hit two Russian cargo ships and a gunboat in … wait for it … the Caspian Sea, leaving all burning and sinking. The cargo ships were carrying Iranian weapons shipments. Given what happened in Azov, this could shut down such shipments if attacks continue.
The Military Show, The Sun, Suchomimus

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, July 27, 2026 - 10:19 am: Edit

Steve: lest you wonder (for whatever mysterious reason you're asking about this), that hatch drops down and back when opened, on what might best be described as seriously extended hinges.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Monday, July 27, 2026 - 10:20 am: Edit

Yes, though I've seen speculation that the Trump Administration has asked them to stop hitting ships in the Black Sea.

This is unverified, but the number of hits in the Black Sea is indeed zero over the past couple of days.

By Mike Erickson (Mike_Erickson) on Monday, July 27, 2026 - 12:58 pm: Edit

Ultimately, given the fossil fuels supply constriction in the Gulf, the world needs Russian production to moderate global prices. It's certainly awkward for Ukraine, as they watch Russian fossil fuel cargos feed hard currency into Russian coffers to then buy weapons to kill Ukrainians.

--Mike

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, July 27, 2026 - 02:27 pm: Edit

It is a balance (and an ugly one) and I'm not sure a blue president would not do exactly the same thing. Indeed, a bell is ringing in my head of one who recently did.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, July 27, 2026 - 02:28 pm: Edit

Thanks, Jessica, I was writing something for someone to take a look at and there was a moment when climbing through such a hatch in order to gain an elevated viewing position (from a C17 that just landed) had a certain virtue.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Monday, July 27, 2026 - 02:51 pm: Edit

We need to stop thinking about Ukraine in terms of Red vs. Blue. That trap can only help the Russians.

On the contrary, I say, let pre-war feuds die; let personal quarrels be forgotten, and let us keep our hatreds for the common enemy. Let party interest be ignored, let all our energies be harnessed, let the whole ability and forces of the nation be hurled into the struggle, and let all the strong horses be pulling on the collar.

-- Winston Churchill, 8 May 1940