Your typical Ukrainian looks at it like this:

They can finish the fight with Russia now. A chastened Russia is less likely to return.

Or they can cut another deal that Russia will break. Minsk and so forth.

Ukrainains have shown a far better understanding of this war than have Americans right from the start.

This continues right up to the present.

Maybe we should have the wisdom to know when someone else has a better appreciation of the problem space.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 03, 2026 - 08:23 pm: Edit

Self interested opinions come with their lack of wisdom.

Just because they agree with you doesn’t make them right.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Monday, August 03, 2026 - 09:20 pm: Edit

Our messages crossed. Three is not happening. Even the Chinese won't tolerate it.

Two is also not happening. Europe does not want to be next on the menu. They'd rather pay Ukraine to fight.

Putin is indeed mobilizing again. In some areas, Russians are not bringing in the harvest, and they are importing gasoline. We'll see how that works out for them. Upshot is possibility 4 is likely in the short term. Only without the "total" part. Many groups must be protected. Half a million men I hear. Which will last about one year at current casualty rates. I don't know what level of de-development is required before supply lines fail. Apparently we aren't there yet.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Monday, August 03, 2026 - 11:40 pm: Edit

Just to be clear:

On the question Russian Mobilization, the “official” numbers presented by the Russian government insists that only the original mobilization back in 2022 amounted to 1.2% of all males of military age.

Russia has asserted that everyone who served in combat roles in the Ukraine invasion, and subsequent war with Ukraine after the initial invasion are “volunteers”. (Note: just because the Russian government says they volunteered, does not mean it is true.)

There are many reports that do not support the governments claim.

But that does not address the main point, that full mobilization (at least for the United States, the U.K. And other western democracies) level in WW2 was originally (in 1940) determined to be 10 percent. It was later raised (mid 1944) to 12 percent, and had the war gone beyond 1945, there was consideration that the prewar distribution (or allocation) of man power required an adjustment. (That was the army position, the Navy, Marines and army Air Corps disagreed as it would mean demobilization of trained personnel to be reassigned to the Army.)

Bottom line, Russia has between 8.8 to 10.00 percent of military males that could be mobilized for a total war case that for a variety of reasons just have never been called up.

This of course assumes that both the Russian leadership and the general Russian population would agree to mobilize.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 - 06:45 am: Edit

Last night, the St Petersburg Wildberries hub at Krasniy Bor burned to the ground. The sixth largest, 154,000 square meters of products, half a billion dollars, gone. This is actually two warehouses a few feet apart. Thirteen hubs have been destroyed, three more damaged. Infantry troops around the building fired their rifles in a failed attempt to stop the drones. SUCHOMIMUS, YouTube, a highly reliable source.

The Wildberries Bingo Card shows that (ranked in order of size) hubs 2, 3, 6, 10-14, 17, 22, 26, 29, and 30 have been totally destroyed. Hubs 5, 7, and 10 have been damaged but are functional.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 - 07:58 am: Edit

Remarkable that even with the obvious warning, Wildberries was unable to make their warehouses less flammable in the last couple of weeks.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 - 11:08 am: Edit

Not much you can do with an existing building in two weeks. Fire extinguishers are not a lot of help when a drone hits.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 - 12:02 pm: Edit

Trump says an Iran deal is imminent.
Iran says there are no negotiations going on.
Trump says if no deal he will decapitate Iran.
Media leaks say the US is out of precision bombs.
Trump says we have plenty with more being built.
Iran says they are talking with Oman about a deal to charge tolls.
Retired generals say Oman cannot be trusted.
I say “we need to wrap this up with Iran’s unconditional surrender.”
Reality says: “house cats don’t surrender, they plot revenge.”

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 - 12:35 pm: Edit

I don't think Poland is going to let Ukraine go under. Think "Special Military Operation" to de-nazify Kallingrad.

I can't imagine it taking more than 48 hours to achieve tactical success. The mopping up might take a while.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 - 02:44 pm: Edit

Russia will file a protest, Mike, are you sure we can stand that?

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 - 04:16 pm: Edit

China: Miracles Needed To Take Taiwan
August 4, 2026: Scenarios for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan primarily focus on the Taiwan Strait and China’s Fujian province. That makes sense. Crossing the Strait from a point in Fujian to Taiwan’s shoreline is one of the shortest routes, either by sea or by air, from 165 to 220 kilometers in a straight line. American Navy officials pointed out that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan was impossible, at least as long as the American Navy was willing to help Taiwan defend itself. Most Taiwanese support a vigorous defense against any Chinese invasion effort.
Part of the American military support is dozens of Virginia-class SSN submarines that can lay mines off Chinese ports and naval bases. This would be a nightmare for Chinese consumers and the ruling CCP/Chinese Communist Party. CCP power depends on providing steady employment for most Chinese and export markets for Chinese goods. China is the second largest exporting country in the world, right behind America.
Meanwhile, China is building a large amphibious fleet in an effort to threaten Taiwan with a convincing capability to seize this wayward Chinese province. This fleet is more likely to be used in the South China Sea, where China is trying to seize islands and fishing groups within the Philippines EEC/Exclusive Economic Zone.
The growing Chinese amphibious assault force includes new ships such as the 41,000-ton Type 076 LHDs. These are larger than the previous Type 075 LHDs. The 076 is a drone carrier, the first ever. The 076 is also an amphibious assault ship that carries 1,200 combat troops and several dozen trucks and combat vehicles. The troops are put ashore by two dozen helicopters, while two air-cushion vessels bring the vehicles ashore.
The first Chinese LDS was the Type 075. In early 2025, China put into service the fourth of eight 37,000-ton Type 075 LHDs, which can deploy helicopters to deliver troops ashore. Construction of the first LHD began in 2011, and it entered sea trials by August 2020. The first LHD entered service in 2021, and the second and third in 2002. The fourth is due this year.
The Chinese LHD is 237m long and 35m wide. Air defense consists of two 30mm CIWS Close-In Weapons Systems and two HQ-10 SAM Surface-to-Air Missile launchers. There is a crew of 1,100 sailors and capacity to carry up to 1,200 troops, who are put ashore using about 20 transport helicopters and a few landing craft. There is a well dock in the rear for loading Type 726 air-cushioned landing craft as well as conventional landing craft. The vehicle deck carries an undetermined number of trucks, ZBD05 amphibious Infantry Fighting Vehicles and ZTD05 amphibious light tanks. Vehicles can also be driven on or off the LHDs via ramps, like a Roll On-Roll Off or RO-RO vehicle transport.
This ship is designed to carry 30 helicopters of various types. China does not have any heavy-lift helicopters or tilt-wing transports like those that operate off American amphibious ships. China also lacks VTOL (Vertical Takeoff and Landing) warplanes like the F-35B or the earlier Harrier. China is currently using the 13-ton Z-8 naval helicopter transport on amphibious ships. The Z-8 is based on the French Super Frelon. The Z-8 can carry 20 or more troops and also be armed with missiles, rockets, and machine guns. China has a growing number of helicopter gunships, and these have been seen practicing operations from warships. China is also introducing a copy of the American 11-ton SH-60 naval helicopter.
The Type 75 is similar to the eight American 41,000-ton LHD helicopter carriers, which can carry up to 20 F-35B fighters. The design of these American mini carriers was influenced by the earlier eight Wasp-class LHDs. The last of these amphibious assault ships, the Makin Island LHD-8, entered service in 2009 and was followed by two more that underwent drastic modifications, leading to their designation as LHAs because they were slightly larger at 45,000 tons and lacked the internal dock for landing craft. The additional space was devoted to more fuel, weapons storage, and aircraft maintenance. The LPDs tend to carry twelve 21-ton V-22 tilt-rotor aircraft, eight AH-1 helicopter gunships, ten F-35B Vertical Take Off and Landing VTOL stealth fighters, four 33-ton CH-53K, and 4 Navy CH-60 helicopters. In both cases, actual air combat elements, the term for the reinforced combat aircraft deployed on these vessels, may vary depending on the mission. The LHA-6 is being built with these new VTOL aircraft, tiltrotors, and helicopters in mind.
Meanwhile, China was scaling up. As of early 2021, they had six Type 071-class amphibious ships in service. The first one arrived for duty in 2007, and by the time the second one entered service in 2011, the Chinese apparently realized they would need more than the four they originally planned to build. Meanwhile, China is also expanding its marine infantry force from three to seven brigades, each with over 5,000 troops.
The 071s are Landing Ship Dock or LPD-type vessels and were the largest ships in the Chinese Navy until the first aircraft carrier entered service in 2013. But while Chinese aircraft carriers are still a work in progress, the LPDs were quickly found work. This makes Chinese neighbors uncomfortable.
These LPDs are 210m long, 25,000-ton amphibious ships with a flight deck for up to four helicopters and a flooded well in the rear for landing craft. It normally carries four hovercrafts in the well and two smaller landing craft suspended on davits. The ship can carry up to 800 troops and up to 20 armored vehicles. Max speed is 46 kilometers an hour, with a cruising speed of 33 kilometers an hour. At that speed, a Type 071 can stay at sea for up to 60 days. The 071-class ships are similar to the American 25,000-ton San Antonio-class and the French 21,500-ton Mistral-class. The 071s have the smallest crew, at 120, compared to 180 on the Mistral and 396 on the San Antonio.
Type 071 armament consists of a 76mm gun, four 30mm anti-missile autocannon, and four 18-tube decoy/chaff dispensers for anti-missile work. Each 071 is believed to cost about $300 million, less than half what a San Antonio or Mistral cost. The Type 75s appear to have the same four 30mm autocannons plus two HHQ-10 anti-aircraft missile launchers. These have a range of about six kilometers.
It is now clear that China will soon have eight LPDs plus eleven of the larger Type 75s. These ships will be crucial in establishing and supplying small outposts in the South China Sea and elsewhere off the Chinese coast where there are more disputed islands. The recent appearance of 071s in the Indian Ocean indicates Chinese amphibious ambitions have a very long reach indeed. When not serving as the intimidator, the 071s stand ready to help with natural disasters in the region. In both cases, the 071s show countries in the region that China now has a large fleet and can be your friend or the neighbor who quickly and unexpectedly invades you from the sea.
The Chinese Navy has been seen exercising with LHDs, civilian ferries, and RoRo ships. Construction of these ships was subsidized by the government with the understanding that these vessels were not part of the navy reserve fleet of support ships, which includes cargo ships, troop transports, and fuel transports. Another recent development is a barge carrying a 130-meter-long road platform for use in coastal areas that lack beaches but are close to roads. The new Chinese landing barges can approach these areas once Chinese commandos or paratroopers have seized a small portion. The barge gets close enough to the coastline for its road platform to be shoved or carried forward somehow to plop down near a coastal road.
Six years ago, Taiwan undertook an expensive upgrade of its defenses against the threat of Chinese invasion. This included an order for nearly two billion dollars’ worth of American weapons. This purchase includes 135 SLAM-ER Standoff Land Attack Missile - Expanded Response missiles, eleven HIMARS High Mobility Artillery Rocket System guided missile launchers, and six MS-110 reconnaissance pods.
The AGM-84K SLAM-ER entered service in 2000. It is a 675-kg cruise missile with a range of 270 kilometers, a speed of 855 kilometers per hour, and a GPS/shape-recognition guidance system that has proved very accurate. The target can be changed, or the mission aborted remotely by the pilot at any time. SLAM-ER costs nearly a million dollars each and has a 220 kg warhead based on the one used on the Tomahawk cruise missile. SLAM-ER is actually a scaled-up Harpoon anti-ship missile.
HIMARS rocket launcher vehicles fire GPS-guided rockets at targets nearly a hundred kilometers distant. Half of the new HIMARS order uses heavier trucks with added armor. These heavy trucks are typically used as wreckers to retrieve vehicles that get stuck. HIMARS can also fire larger, longer 300-kilometer-range ATACMS rockets, as well as PrSM missiles with a 500-kilometer range.
Perhaps the most useful item ordered is the MS-110 reconnaissance pods. These are digital, high-resolution, multi-spectral camera pods, usually carried by an F-16 fighter jet. These pods look like large, streamlined bombs and use digital cameras to photograph large areas at high resolution and in Multispectral Imaging. This means the high-resolution digital photos are not only in color but also capture data across seven bands of the electromagnetic spectrum. This includes items visible and invisible to the human eye, making it difficult to use camouflage to hide things and electronic signals. This type of camera is superior to film cameras because no film development is required, and digital images can be analyzed more easily with software, rather than relying mostly on human photo interpreters. The infrared/heat sensor of the MS-110 can record everything in the aircraft's flight path, horizon-to-horizon. This means the pod can be carried on an F-16 flying just outside Chinese territorial waters, which extend 22 kilometers from the coast, and photograph Chinese territory more than 300 kilometers inland. The pod records many gigabytes of data to onboard storage devices and can also transmit less detailed data immediately to a ground station. The pilot can also see what the pod sees, using one of the cockpit displays. Although similar to targeting pods, the recon pods are also designed to take high-resolution pictures of large swaths of terrain below, even as the aircraft moves along at 15 kilometers per minute.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 - 04:17 pm: Edit

Logistics: American Ukraine Support So Far
August 4, 2026: Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, America and European NATO nations have been the major suppliers of military and economic aid to Ukraine. Europe has provided $226 billion, including $86 billion for the military. America has sent $195 billion, in addition to a $20 billion loan administered by the World Bank. Equipment to integrate with and sustain Ukraine’s systems and to protect critical infrastructure. America provided most of the military aid. Thirty-six countries made major arms transfers to Ukraine from 2022 to 2025. Nearly all were wealthy democracies.
A partial list of military weapons sent to Ukraine between 2020 and 2024 includes: 10,000 Javelin anti-armor systems, 3 Patriot air defense batteries and munitions, 120,000 other anti-armor systems, and reloads. 12 NASAM systems, 3,000 Stinger anti-aircraft systems, HAWK air defense systems and munitions, 10,000 TOW missiles, laser-guided rocket systems, 50,000 grenade launchers and small arms, AIM-7 air-to-air missiles, 500 million rounds of small arms ammunition, grenades, RIM-7 missiles, AIM-9M air-to-air missiles, 100,000 sets of body armor and helmets, anti-aircraft guns and ammunition, night-vision devices, surveillance systems, thermal imagery systems, optics, and laser rangefinders, VAMPIRE anti-drone systems and munitions, C-4 and other explosives, anti-drone gun trucks and ammunition, explosive ordnance disposal equipment, anti-drone laser-guided rocket systems, M18A1 claymore mines, air defense systems components, anti-armor mines.
Other anti-drone equipment. Mine-clearing equipment, Obstacle-emplacement equipment. Medical supplies and Field equipment, cold-weather gear, generators, and spare parts, Air-to-ground missiles, Chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear protective equipment, HARM/High-speed anti-radiation missiles, Precision aerial munitions, 29 armored bridging systems, 6,000 Zuni aircraft rockets, Rocket launchers and ammunition, 20,000 Hydra-70 aircraft rockets, 25mm ammunition, Counter–air defense capability, Air-to-ground munitions, 20 Mi-17 helicopters. Support equipment for F-16s.
Artillery included 200 155mm Howitzers and 3 million rounds, including 7,000 precision-guided rounds and 100,000 anti-armor mine rounds, 72 105mm Howitzers and 1 million rounds, 10,000 203mm rounds, 400,000 152mm rounds, 40,000 130mm rounds, and 40,000 122mm rounds, 60,000 122mm Grad rockets, 40 HIMAR systems.
Explosive and combat drones, 300 mortar systems, Switchblade drones, 700,000 mortar rounds, Phoenix Ghost drones. ALTIUS-600 drones that can also be used for surveillance
European nations also provided $122 billion in financial and emergency assistance. This made it possible for the Ukrainian government to pay workers' pensions. The government must maintain essential public services, such as hospitals, schools, and housing for displaced civilians. This ensures economic stability and maintenance of essential infrastructure. Contributions include:
$50 billion of financial assistance in 2022-2025
$34 billion of financial assistance mobilized from the Ukraine Facility
$16 billion of financial assistance directly from EU Member States in grants, loans, and guarantees
$3 billion in loans from the EIB and EBRD guaranteed by the EU budget
$4.8 billion in internal refugee aid, emergency assistance, budget support and crisis response, including $122 million to rebuild Ukrainian schools
Over 157,000 tons of in-kind assistance, including medical supplies, mobile hospitals, shelters, school buses, ambulances, and power generators, with an estimated value of over $1 billion, have been provided via the EU Civil Protection Mechanism by 35 participating countries, coordinated by the EU. There were 5,136 EU-coordinated medical evacuations of Ukrainian patients to hospitals across Europe.
While NATO admitted to sending substantial material aid to Ukraine, they were less forthcoming about how closely Ukrainian and NATO military commanders worked together. This collaboration began before the 2022 Russian invasion. In 2014, when Russia seized the Crimean Peninsula, NATO personnel were already helping discover exactly what the Russians were doing and what their goals were. This required collaboration between Ukrainian and NATO intelligence, espionage, and covert operations organizations.
This very active partnership did not come quickly or easily. For example, American forces withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, something Ukrainians were afraid would happen to them a year later. U.S. and NATO officials explained that while Afghanistan was a landlocked, undeveloped nation in Central Asia, Ukraine was a part of Europe. The Ukrainian desire to join NATO was one of the reasons Russia invaded. Russia considered Ukraine a part of Russia that had become independent via a NATO strategy of slowly taking Russia apart. Russians saw themselves as the victim here, and some Westerners agreed with that. Ukrainians explained that Russia was never a victim and often a predator. For centuries, Russia has been absorbing neighboring states. Most countries currently bordering Russia will confirm that, and those that don’t are intimidated by Russian threats, or at least their current leaders are.
The Russians apparently didn’t know how thoroughly and quickly the Americans and NATO allies came to aid Ukraine. Shortly after Russia invaded, several senior Ukrainian generals were shown the top-secret operations center NATO had built in Germany to coordinate support operations for Ukraine. That was not just about supplies of weapons and munitions, but also intelligence from listening into secret Russian communications and a continuous photographic record of what the Russians were doing. At that point the Ukrainian generals realized they had a chance against the Russians. They were surprised at how well NATO had prepared for a war that was only a few months old.
The surprise was quickly followed by massive and continuous shipments of weapons, munitions, and economic assistance. NATO analysts knew that Ukraine was the home of a very entrepreneurial and inventive people. When it came to science, technology, and manufacturing, Ukrainians were able to conceptualize, develop, and build new military equipment in record time. About 1% of Ukraine’s 42 million people were involved in the manufacturing effort that took place in homes, garages, abandoned factory buildings, barns, or outdoors when the weather permitted.
While NATO admitted to sending substantial material aid to Ukraine, they were less forthcoming about how closely Ukrainian and NATO military commanders worked together. This collaboration began before the 2022 Russian invasion. In 2014, when Russia seized the Crimean Peninsula, NATO personnel were already helping discover exactly what the Russians were doing and what their goals were. This required collaboration between Ukrainian and NATO intelligence, espionage, and covert operations organizations.
This very active partnership did not come quickly or easily. For example, American forces withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, something Ukrainians were afraid would happen to them a year later. American and NATO officials explained that while Afghanistan was a landlocked, undeveloped nation in Central Asia, Ukraine was a part of Europe. The Ukrainian desire to join NATO was one of the reasons Russia invaded. Russia considered Ukraine a part of Russia that had become independent via a NATO strategy of slowly taking Russia apart. Russians saw themselves as the victim here, and some Westerners agreed with that. Ukrainians explained that Russia was never a victim and often a predator. For centuries, Russia has been absorbing neighboring states. Most countries currently bordering Russia will confirm that, and those that don’t are intimidated by Russian threats, or at least their current leaders are.
The Russians apparently didn’t know how thoroughly and quickly the Americans and NATO allies came to aid Ukraine. Shortly after Russia invaded, several senior Ukrainian generals were shown the top-secret operations center NATO had built in Germany to coordinate support operations for Ukraine. That was not just about supplies of weapons and munitions, but also intelligence from listening into secret Russian communications and a continuous photographic record of what the Russians were doing. At that point, the Ukrainian generals realized they had a chance against the Russians. They were surprised at how well NATO had prepared for a war that was only a few months old.
The surprise was quickly followed by massive and continuous shipments of weapons, munitions, and economic assistance. NATO analysts knew that Ukraine was the home of a very entrepreneurial and inventive people. When it came to science, technology, and manufacturing, Ukrainians were able to conceptualize, develop, and build new military equipment in record time. About 1% of Ukraine’s 42 million people were involved in the manufacturing effort that took place in homes, garages, abandoned factory buildings, barns, or outdoors when the weather permitted.
This very active partnership did not come quickly or easily. For example, American forces withdrew from Afghanistan in 2021, something Ukrainians were afraid would happen to them a year later. American and NATO officials explained that while Afghanistan was a landlocked, undeveloped nation in Central Asia, Ukraine was a part of Europe. The Ukrainian desire to join NATO was one of the reasons Russia invaded. Russia considered Ukraine a part of Russia that had become independent via a NATO strategy of slowly taking Russia apart. Russians saw themselves as the victim here, and some Westerners agreed with that. Ukrainians explained that Russia was never a victim and often a predator. For centuries, Russia has been absorbing neighboring states. Most countries currently bordering Russia will confirm that, and those that don’t are intimidated by Russian threats, or at least their current leaders are.
The Russians apparently didn’t know how thoroughly and quickly the Americans and NATO allies came to aid Ukraine. Shortly after Russia invaded, several senior Ukrainian generals were shown the top-secret operations center NATO had built in Germany to coordinate support operations for Ukraine. That was not just about supplies of weapons and munitions, but also intelligence from listening into secret Russian communications and a continuous photographic record of what the Russians were doing. At that point, the Ukrainian generals realized they had a chance against the Russians. They were surprised at how well NATO had prepared for a war that was only a few months old.
The surprise was quickly followed by massive and continuous shipments of weapons, munitions, and economic assistance. NATO analysts knew that Ukraine was the home of a very entrepreneurial and inventive people. When it came to science, technology, and manufacturing, Ukrainians were able to conceptualize, develop, and build new military equipment in record time. About 1% of Ukraine’s 42 million people were involved in the manufacturing effort that took place in homes, garages, abandoned factory buildings, barns, or outdoors when the weather permitted.
FYEO

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 - 09:10 pm: Edit

Reduce inventory, especially flammable inventory? Have firefighting capability on site 24/7 until that was done?

I bet Amazon could have done it. But they are in a country where:

-- people have the habit and permission take sensible actions without waiting for higher approval
-- they don't have the option of unilaterally changing the terms of service to screw their sellers. I mean they could change it, but the sellers would need to be allowed to not accept
-- others could be found to hold some of the inventory without stealing it
-- there is enough gasoline for the job

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 - 09:20 pm: Edit

To reduce inventory you have to move it somewhere. There aren't a lot of million square foot warehouses standing empty.

Not going to help much as the building itself is flammable.

But I suspect the Russians would do well to follow the advice of my esteemed colleague, even if they have to hand-carry the merchandise to a thousand smaller buildings.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 - 09:41 pm: Edit

Wildberries has found a solution! They are banning camera phones at all of their warehouses. Button phones only.

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Tuesday, August 04, 2026 - 09:57 pm: Edit

A huge issue is all the paper from products boxes and packaging. There is lint and similar things everywhere in these warehouses. Cleaning that up will not be a fast process, but it burns fast.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 - 05:22 am: Edit

The Wildberry hub in Tula has been hit and totally destroyed. These hubs apparently do not have fire extinguisher systems. Two new hubs are being built in Kazakhstan. At 150,000 square meters this was the eighth largest. SUCHOMIMUS

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 - 11:22 am: Edit

North Korea is sending ballistic missiles and crews to Russia. Presumably they will launch them at Ukraine.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 - 12:36 pm: Edit

1) if those places aren't sprinklered, they got no chance. Even if the fire department is on site. Given Russian use of bribes to avoid building to spec, I'd bet even a sprinkler system installed isn't going to perform to design.

2) Against a facility like this I'd use HE incendiary filler in the warhead. Basically C4/ PETN/ etc. with the addition of magnesium or aluminum powder/ flake. HE breaches the building and the rest sets the contents on fire.

3) By the way, the Russians use the "European" style fire truck. So 500 to 700 gpm. Much lower flow rates through smaller "deck guns" and nozzles. Plus they don't use "Larger Diameter Hose" for supply lines. Even small departments these days in the US and Canada use 5" supply lines that will allow an ordinary pumper to flow 2000+ gpm. YES, most pumpers are rated at 1250 gpm or so. But that is from draft (i.e. sucking it out of a pond/ river/ swimming pool/ portable tank. everyone knows that sucking water up is harder than just moving it along horizontally. And "friction loss" in fire hose is a real thing. If anyone really wants to geek out email me so SVC doesn't have a stroke.

4) and then there is the issue of how big are those water mains. Size matters. Basically you want enormous pipes, with lots of "static" and "residual pressure." Again email me to geek out. Do civil engineers do flow rate calculations or just ME & FPE? Chief Heydt (RIP) used some standard formulas back in the day, but he had the advantage of having final signing authority to build anything in his district. So he'd up watermain sizes, move hydrant locations, and require looped systems (all of which cost money; not a lot but enough that we'd get whining every time a developer had to change his prints or I'd catch them cheating).

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 - 01:24 pm: Edit

1. Wildberries buildings have no sprinkler systems.

2. That HE/Incindi things is actually what Ukraine says it is using.

3. Actually SVC is fascinated. Europe has really old cities with narrow winding streets not wide streets on 1/16 mile grids like the US. Their fire trucks carry more stuff than US trucks but pump less water. Houses are smaller.

4A: There is a constant war between engineers and accountants over how much beyond the bare minimum will actually get built. Cities set building codes to whatever they think is reasonable and developers are always trying to get the city to relax the standards and save the developer money. Amarillo still builds all that water/drainage stuff for the developer but now makes the developer pay for it, and is always upping the standards and making a "profit" on the "sale" of the watermains and drains.

4B: There are few walls between engineer disciplines (other than software engineers) and water mains might be handled by civil, mechanical, or other types of engineers depending on who the company/community hired. I am a civil engineer and worked for a natural gas company but I did civil stuff (concrete, roads, a bridge, drainage, brick and wood and metal buildings) and sometimes I did electrical, oil and natural gas (compressors, refineries, pipelines), and mechanical engineer tasks. I did design, inspection, construction, and anything else that was needed. The company had only three "field engineers" (one electrical, one civil, and one oil/gas) and three supervisory engineers (oil/gas, civil, and mechanical). We also had five engineering technicians who did mostly construction supervision. My assistant was a Marine Gunnery sergeant. He could not get along with anyone but me. I could not get along with anyone but him. We had six glorious years together and he didn't like my replacement. For that matter, civil engineers come in sub-specialties: roads/transportation, earthwork/drainage, structural, and military (kind of a mix of all three plus some stuff the other three don't do).

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 - 03:07 pm: Edit

Peace Time: Civilian Drone Control
August 5, 2026: Civilian use of drones for land survey, collecting marketing data, and construction supervision is endangered as American federal and state governments rush to regulate drone use. This is due to the Ukraine War use of drones and overactive imaginations of journalists and government bureaucrats about what should be done. To a bureaucrat, the usual response is to appear as active as possible, no matter what collateral damage that causes. In the current situation, regulations have been issued making it illegal for businesses to use drones as they have for years. Civilian use of drones is also restricted, but since many of these users are adventurous teenagers, enforcement has been difficult. This won’t last long, as most of those involved are voters and the businesses contribute large sums to politicians. That buys them access to government officials to make complaints and get problems resolved.
This is not a new problem. In late 2018, Britain faced an aviation crisis after someone allegedly flew a drone near a runway at Gatwick Airport outside London on several occasions. Between December 19 and 21, more than 100 people, including police officers and airport pilots, reported seeing the drone. Some drone sightings near airports turn out to be plastic bags blown by the wind, but this one appeared to be genuine. Initial attempts to resolve the situation failed, delaying or canceling flights for more than 140,000 passengers. The mystery operator was never identified, and the incident ultimately cost more than $66 million.
The airport initially brought in an inexpensive and widely used AeroScope UAV/Unidentified Aerial Vehicle detector. AeroScope is made by DJI, the Chinese firm that builds most of the drones on the market. DJI includes a microchip in its drones that embeds the drone operator's information in the control signal. AeroScope is a briefcase-sized device that uses two small antennas to monitor for a DJI control signal within 5 kilometers. If a control signal is detected, the AeroScope display shows the AeroScope operator data about the DJI drone, including location, altitude, speed, direction, takeoff location, operator location, and an identifier such as a registration or serial number.
The Gatwick drone was either not a DJI model or was one that had been altered, not easy to do but possible by someone familiar with drone control hardware and software. The military was consulted, and they brought in one of their recently acquired Drone Dome systems a few months earlier. These cost $3.4 million each and consist of a 360-degree radar system, an electro-optical day/night surveillance unit, and a wideband detector. With all this, Drone Dome can reliably detect any small drone or fixed-wing drone within 3,500 meters. Most quadcopters and fixed-wing models encountered are larger and can be detected out to 10 kilometers. Once spotted, Drone Dome can use a focused jamming signal to disrupt radio-control signals and force the drone to crash or operate erratically. Drone Dome has an optional laser gun that can be aimed to destroy the drone at ranges up to 2,000 meters. In a combat zone, you can also employ machine guns to bring down the drone. The British military did not purchase the laser option but was able to reliably detect a wide range of small quadcopters from several manufacturers during tests earlier in 2019. It was not revealed whether Drone Dome detected anything at Gatwick, but the drone sightings stopped, and Gatwick has since brought in a similar system to be permanently available to detect illegal drones operating around the airport.
FYEO

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 - 03:50 pm: Edit

With regard to the 1992 Soviet collapse: it didn't need to turn out like it has.

The West was enjoying what it referred to as the "peace dividend" as the Cold War ended, and there was a real opportunity on the table. Some small portion of that "dividend" could have been set aside and used as a sort of mini-Marshall Plan to help the new non-Soviet Russia step out of the mire of 70 years of Soviet failures. They could have been helped to reenter the community of free nations.

Instead, what the West did was turn a blind eye while profiteers dove on Russia like cats on kibble, building on the old Soviet black markets and turning them into massive criminal enterprises, and built towering scams that would have made Bernie Madoff blush. What looked hopeful in '92 was utterly squandered by 2000, and the nascent democracy was smothered in its crib by the new oligarchs.

As lost opportunities go, this one was massive.

By Mike Curtis (Nashvillen) on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 - 04:17 pm: Edit

State Law in TN prohibits any state agency (including counties) from purchasing any UAV not on the USDAA blue list. Those UAVs are not nearly as good or reliable as the non blue list UAVs and cost three or more times as much.

What happened was two US Manufacturers spent funds on lobbying out their competition instead of improving their product to be competitive. This will, in my opinion, lead to a loss of life at some point with public safety use.

It is really frustrating to try to purchase a 20k UAV package and have to either go to bid on a 60k package or limit the package to less than 50k and just get three quotes due to purchasing regulations.

Now the FAA is cracking down on our use of these platforms even for those of us with Part 107 Commercial UAV licenses. I have a feeling that within two years UAV use for local governments will no longer be a thing and, again, lives will be lost due to this.

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 - 05:11 pm: Edit

UAVs are ideal for search and rescue, and the above regulations are stupid.

Having serious regulations on armed UAVs would make sense.

By William Jockusch (Verybadcat) on Wednesday, August 05, 2026 - 05:32 pm: Edit

Jessica, at the same time, Russians showed a lack of determination to get things right. In contrast to Ukainains, who had their Orange Revolution and their Maidan.