Russian corruption was so bad (no better now) that no mini-Marshall Plan was ever going to work. Which is why it was laughed out of senate hearings.

Ukraine remains pretty bad, a little better than it was but it's gaining only in comparison to Russia which is getting worse. Some countries are worse but it's hard to tell since there are at least six self-appointed rating agencies and they don't agree on much, each having their own agendas, goals, and blindspots. In the end, there is no way to objectively rate things and it all comes down to "this one looks worse than that one on this issue" which means subjective judgement, not objective numbers.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, August 06, 2026 - 08:34 am: Edit

A typical day in THE UKRAINE WAR.

The Yaroslavl refinery, one of the largest, was hit and set on fire.
It is 15 miles northeast of Moscow.
It supplies most of the fuel for the city of Moscow.
The smoke column was visible from most of Moscow.

The Wildberries hub in Aleksin is still burning.
This is 200 miles northeast of the Ukraine border.
This seems to be a new attack but I haven’t confirmed that yet.

The Rosneft Bashneft UNPZ refinery at Ufa is burning after a drone strike for three consecutive days.

MiG29s hit a Russian drone base in Soledad, Donetsk.

A fire erupted at the main Roscosmos scientific institute in Moscow, possibly a drone strike. This is the hub of Russian orbital operations.

Drones hit the Belgorad airport.

The Nemesis brigade continues to wreck Russian logistics in Kherson and Zaporische. They have destroyed 500 trucks and 400 smaller vehicles in one month. Logistics hubs 200km from the front were wrecked. Most trucks are hit from behind which is easier but skilled drone operators are now making frontal attacks to destroy the tractors and kill the drivers, causing some drivers to refuse to drive any more.

The destruction of the Wildberries hub in Saint Petersburg has left that city’s economy in a crisis as homes and businesses can no longer get deliveries of needed items.
THE SUN

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, August 06, 2026 - 02:11 pm: Edit

Murphy's Law: Foreign Aid For Ukraine Backfires
August 6, 2026: Since early 2022, NATO countries have provided Ukraine with several hundred billion dollars’ worth of weapons and military supplies. While the Ukrainians appreciate this, their most significant battlefield successes have come from weapons developed by Ukrainian individuals, small groups, and the small companies that these entrepreneurial efforts create.
Defense firms in NATO nations struggle to understand how this works. Traditional defense production relies on orders for batches of expensive weapons. Larger weapons can take from weeks to years to build. Smaller weapons and munitions can be produced quickly, but only from a few factories. In wartime, it can take a few months or more than a year to establish new arms plants and begin production. No NATO nations are at war and producing in wartime mode, but Ukraine is. As for the use of all the NATO military aid, Ukraine has been winning its war largely with Ukrainian-made weapons. Their response has been to build whatever they need, quickly, driven by necessity and the will to survive. It has filled gaps where traditional weapons were unavailable or inadequate. Ukrainian-designed and manufactured drones have become essential.
Ukraine’s innovation was crucial in defeating Russian efforts to occupy more territory. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian defense industry is moving toward production on a scale that would have seemed impossible a few years ago. The rapidly expanding drone production is less a fixed system than an evolving one: initially primarily defensive, but steadily expanding across the air, sea, and now ground combat zones.
What began as an improvisation is increasingly hardening into a durable, technological defense system, as the country seeks to become an indigestible steel porcupine for its rapacious neighbor. Since the full-scale invasion, Ukraine’s defense-industrial base has grown at an unprecedented pace, with annual production capacity increasing five times to $50 billion.
Chinese Mavic drones, for example, became emblematic of the war not because they were built for combat, but because Ukrainians adapted them to drop grenades when no better option existed. That was followed by Ukraine’s repeated examples of how drones assembled quickly, continuously adapted, and fielded at scale can have a major impact on the battlefield. For the defenders, it’s been a race to build effective, low-cost systems that can be quickly mass-produced. Ukraine was soon assembling its own drones and eventually building drone components as well.
This is underlined by the 2025 American-Israeli war in Iran, which is offering reminders that expensive and procurement-heavy systems do not guarantee a quick victory; see, for example, the reported destruction of 16 Reaper drones over Iran, each costing up to $30 million. Meanwhile, an opponent equipped with cheap drones can still impose disproportionate costs and disrupt forces in ways that traditional procurement models struggle to match. Russia was also slow to absorb some of the lessons. But bogged down in trench warfare in eastern Ukraine's Donbas, it was eventually forced to adapt, increasing its own drone capability with the help of partners such as China and Iran.
Ukrainian drones are not a revolution in physics or materials; rather, they are a revolution in application, scaling, and adaptability. They systematically changed the balance on the battlefield. Now Ukraine’s drone wall is expanding. Mid-range strike drones have wreaked havoc on Russian air defenses, aided by the increasing use of Starlink connectivity over occupied territories.
Ukraine’s drone production has resulted in the use of drones that can strike several thousand kilometers into Russia against major cities like Moscow and St Petersburg as well as oil production, export facilities, and factories supporting the arms industry. Russia is poised to cut oil output by a fifth following Ukrainian drone strikes on port facilities; tankers are meanwhile backed up in the Baltic Sea as they cannot fill up at damaged docks.
The most strategically significant development of this war is Ukraine’s ability to strike Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure across vast distances. Ukraine can now reach from the Arctic submarine bases to southern energy infrastructure. Russia cannot defend everything.
Ukraine is also pouring millions of dollars into missile development to match the success of its drones. Ukraine’s defense minister said the government is acting like a venture capital investor by giving large grants to local companies. Ukraine has now developed and built drones that can hit targets from 500 kilometers to several thousand kilometers inside Russia.
At sea, Ukrainian naval drones have effectively forced Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to retreat to Novorossiysk, more than a thousand kilometers from the Crimean Peninsula. The drones are being used to attack shadow-fleet oil tankers, including those operating near the Turkish Straits. Ukrainian drone vessels are now being adapted to carry interceptor drones, extending Ukraine’s defensive reach across the Black Sea.
Units that use ground combat drones reduced frontline infantry requirements by up to 30 percent initially and may reach 80 percent in the future. Recently, one machine-gun-equipped ground robot reportedly held a position for 45 days. Ukrainians are right when they send robots, not humans, into combat. Now Ukrainian engineers are working on ways to integrate land drones into the fortification network. While Russia has continued to pound Ukrainian cities with drones and missiles, Ukraine has developed low-cost interceptor systems that are attracting worldwide interest, including in the Middle East.
With its young, technology-focused defense officials, many of the key elements are beginning to align. Across the battlefield, drones and other emerging systems are helping fill critical gaps, and Ukraine will continue using that unequal advantage to deny Russia the chance to achieve its goals.


FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, August 06, 2026 - 02:11 pm: Edit

Korea: South Korean Drone Warriors
August 6, 2026: The South Korean military is training half a million drone operators, using men drawn from the army, navy, air force, and marines. South Korea is building its own drones, and once domestic demand is fulfilled, drones will be another one of many South Korean weapons exports. South Korea will also offer training services, using former South Korean soldiers with drone experience. In part, this is a response to North Korea sending troops and weapons to assist Russian forces in Ukraine. Those North Korean soldiers who survive return as combat veterans.
Meanwhile, South Korea is the tenth largest weapons exporter worldwide. South Korea is also the fifth-largest defense manufacturer, with $10 billion in annual defense exports. South Korea is increasing its own defense budget by 8.6 percent to $47 billion in 2026. South Korea also helps the US Navy, which lacks sufficient shipyards for maintenance. South Korea is now doing a lot of work on U.S. warships in South Korean shipyards. South Korea is also developing a 4.5-generation version of its KF-21 fighter for delivery in 2026. South Korea is a major exporter of defense systems, ammunition, and weapons for warships. South Korea is providing European NATO nations with munitions and weapons to prepare for a potential Russian attack on those nations by 2030.
As a result of the Ukraine War, Poland, which borders Ukraine and Russia, decided to expand its armed forces, including the purchase of a thousand new South Korean K2 tanks. Most of these tanks will be produced in Poland under license, in cooperation with the South Korean manufacturer, which continues to supply some components. This will begin in 2026, making Poland the largest user of K2S, while South Korea has only a few hundred. Poland will also become the European country with the largest force of modern tanks. This is mainly to deter any Russian attacks on Poland or the neighboring Baltic States.
Currently, Poland has nearly 200 K2 tanks, as well as similar numbers of K9 self-propelled 155mm howitzers and Homar-K rocket launchers. Homar is similar to the American HIMARS vehicles. The Homar fire control system can handle HIMARS rockets, as well as several other rocket types. Poland can use HIMARS rockets as well as a wide variety of South Korean rockets.
South Korea is not only much wealthier than North Korea but also a major manufacturer and exporter of industrial goods, including modern South Korean-designed weapons. One of the best examples is the K2 Black Panther tank, which compares favorably with the latest version of the American M1. Unlike earlier South Korean-designed tanks, the K2 contains no American technology and is a completely South Korean creation. This allows the K2 to be freely exported, resulting in over 1,000 K2S in production or on order, most of which are for export customers.
The high quality of the K2 comes with a high price of over $8 million each, making it the most expensive tank in the world. In 2023, South Korea approved the production of the fourth batch of K2S, bringing the total to 410 K2S. That’s fewer than the 980 K2S Poland is acquiring. Poland faces a more formidable threat from Russia than South Korea faces from North Korea. While the K2 was a significant investment in South Korea’s defense capabilities against the persistent threat posed by North Korea, it has also proven to be a highly profitable export item.
Poland received its first 180 K2S in 2025 and has begun producing the remaining 820 in Poland under a manufacturing license. The K2 was developed by the South Korean Agency for Defense Development and manufactured by Hyundai Rotem. Introduced in 2014 after over two decades of development, the first model was a 56-ton tank armed with a 120mm NATO-compatible main gun, carrying 40 shells. The main gun has an autoloader, reducing the crew size from four to three. The autoloader enables the K2 to fire ten or more aimed shells per minute.
Tank-to-tank combat is usually short and intense. The tank that fires first and delivers the most well-aimed shells will win, even against multiple opponents. K2 armor includes metal and ERA explosive reactive armor in addition to an APS Active Protection System to intercept anti-tank guided missiles, ATGMs, and RPG/rocket-propelled anti-tank grenades. The 12.7mm machine guns on top of the turret can be operated from inside the tank using RWS/Remote Weapons System technology. The K2 also includes NBC (Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical) protection.
The K2’s armament is equally impressive. Its main armament is a domestically produced Rheinmetall 120mm L/55 smoothbore gun equipped with an autoloader. This gun, compatible with all standard NATO tank rounds, can also launch the advanced KSTAM Korean Smart Top-Attack Munition, an intelligent, fire-and-forget projectile that targets the thinner top armor of most tanks. Secondary armament includes a 12.7mm heavy machine gun and a 7.62mm machine gun.
The tank is further enhanced by a domestically developed auto-target detection and tracking system that incorporates hunter-killer functionality. The K2’s electric gun and turret driving system, along with the stabilization of its gunner’s primary sight and commander’s panoramic sight, enable effective day and night operations. The K2 also features an advanced suspension system that offers multiple positioning options to maximize combat effectiveness across various terrains.
With a top speed of 68 kilometers per hour on roads and 40 kilometers per hour cross-country, an auxiliary power unit allows the tank to remain stationary while keeping all its electronics powered and ready for action, without operating the main engine. The success of the K2 design has attracted numerous export customers.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, South Korea has emerged as an unexpected arms supplier for Ukraine, though not directly. South Korean law prohibits weapons sales to countries at war, so Seoul complies with—and effectively works around—this restriction by selling arms to Ukraine’s allies. Those allies then transfer to Ukraine the weapons that South Korean equipment replaces. This arrangement matters because South Korea has become a major defense producer. By 2019, it was the world’s 10th-largest defense manufacturer, up from 13th a few years earlier. In 2024, it ranked 8th in defense exports with a 2.8 percent share, behind the United States at 39 percent, Russia at 19 percent, and France at 11 percent. FYEO

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Thursday, August 06, 2026 - 02:34 pm: Edit

Ukrainian corruption.

It MAY start being reduced to a significant degree, several high ranking Ukrainians have been prosecuted for corruption, primarily to keep Europe and the US sending aid.

It remains to be seen if this is an actual improvement, or a temporary one during the war.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Thursday, August 06, 2026 - 04:50 pm: Edit

President Donald Trump’s frustration over the Iran war boiled over at Camp David last week, where he demanded answers from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on why he had apparently been misled on extreme munitions shortages that now threaten to limit military options with Iran, two people familiar with the exchange told The Washington Post.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, August 06, 2026 - 05:28 pm: Edit

Washington Post…. Yeah

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Thursday, August 06, 2026 - 06:55 pm: Edit

WaPo under Bezos is a different creature than it was before. That said, they're hardly the only outlet to be reporting on severe shortages of ATACMS and PrSM missiles. We've been relying heavily on both, along with Tomahawks, for strikes into Iran, rather than manned aircraft using precision bombs, and that reliance has run through most of our ATACMS and PrSM stocks, along with just under half of our Tomahawk stocks.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Thursday, August 06, 2026 - 08:23 pm: Edit

Several sources (MSM) have reported that the United States has a “high degree” of air superiority over Iran and the Hormuz Strait, but Iran is still able to operate low level using low cost/drones contesting low level U.S. dominance.

One would think that, at some point, the U.S. would move away from using high capability /high cost missiles and drones to a cheaper or less expensive way of delivering weapons that is more sustainable.

Does the US military still use JDAM bombs? (Joint Direct Attack Munitions ?)

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, August 06, 2026 - 09:21 pm: Edit

Bezos is certainly a different creature, but WaPo has a history of inventing things that never happened.

That said, I don't see how we cannot be really short of at least some munitions, but that doesn't mean we don't have others.

On other fronts, Putin is reported to have called Ukraine an "angry tomcat I hold by the tail" in a conversation overheard by two generals or colonels or janitors or hookers or someone else.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Friday, August 07, 2026 - 02:16 pm: Edit

B-52 upgrade project status:

There are 13 parts to this project:

1. Commercial Engine Replacement Program (CERP): Replacing the legacy Pratt & Whitney TF33 engines with eight modern Rolls-Royce F130 engines, including new nacelles, struts, and integration adjustments.

2. Radar Modernization Program (RMP): Swapping the aging Cold War radar with a modern Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar system derived from fighter technology for better mapping and targeting.

3. Core Avionics, Digital, and Structural Updates.

4. Modern Digital Cockpit:

A. Upgrading analog flight instruments and aging displays to modern multi-function digital flight displays and advanced avionics.

B. Upgraded Electrical Generators: Increasing electrical power capacity to support the draw of new digital glass displays and advanced sensors.

5. New Landing Gear & Structural Overhauls: Refreshing high-stress airframe components and structural mounting points to accommodate the new heavy propulsion and avionics packages.

6. Communications and Defensive SystemsCommunication System Upgrades (Multiple Sub-projects):

A. Incorporating up to six modernized, secure satellite and tactical data-link communication line architectures to survive in contested battlespaces.

B. Advanced Targeting Pod Integration: Upgrading interfaces and digital processing for modern targeting and surveillance pods.

7. Strategic Weapon IntegrationAGM-181 LRSO Integration: Modifying internal and external pylons to deploy the new nuclear-armed Long-Range Standoff cruise missile.

8. Conventional Weapons Upgrades: Expanding the internal smart weapons bay launcher capacity for advanced conventional precision-guided munitions.

(Note: The remaining specific line items managed under the Air Force Platform Integration Plan track.

9. specialized software suites,

10. electronic warfare countermeasures, and

11. ground-based training simulator device overhauls.

(The remaining two parts are unspecified testing and life extension procedures related to the airframe of subject B-52 aircraft.)

The information above was provided by several sources including dept of war, defense trade journals and some Main Stream Media sites.

The reason I posted this today, is because 10 of the 13 modules are reported to have failed to meet bench mark deadlines.

It should be noted that it is reported that the first two points above (related to engine and radar upgrades) represent 88% of the total value of the program costs, and are in compliance with deadlines.

I have not been able to identify which of the other modules is in compliance, nor have I been able to find any information as to what and why the other modules have failed to keep up to the budget or the original schedule.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Friday, August 07, 2026 - 06:09 pm: Edit

Aug 5: There was a drone attack on a German airport at Leipzig, Russia is suspected.

Aug 1-2 Saratov refinery hit.
Aug 2 Car bomb misses a 4-star general and kills a 2-star general
Aug 4 Wildberry facility in St Petersburg destroyed.
Aug 5 Car bomb injures head of Russian drone company
Aug 5-6 Yarolsalv refinery hit

THE SUN
Aug 5-6 Ufa refinery hit. Engles airbase hit.
Aug 7 Yeketerina Wildberry facility hit.
Aug 8 fuel convoy en route to Crimea destroyed

During that week, Russia fired 1066 missiles and drones into Ukraine. Many were shot down. This included 129 ballistic missiles fired and 29 shot down by Patriots.

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Friday, August 07, 2026 - 06:33 pm: Edit

re: B-52...

Have to wonder, if they will ever put rails
between the engines and mount AMRAAMs for the like at some point....

By Burt Quaid (Burt) on Friday, August 07, 2026 - 07:13 pm: Edit

Why are they able to do upgrades like this to the B-52 but not the B-1? Did they just not make them like they used to?

burt

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Friday, August 07, 2026 - 09:00 pm: Edit

The B-52 has a very low cost per hour to fly, as well as a longer loiter time.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Friday, August 07, 2026 - 09:57 pm: Edit

The Russian railroad system (and remember they have no interstate highway system east of Moscow) is facing a crisis.

1. The special winter diesel fuel has not been made since March; it is usually made and stored because the refineries must run year round to produce enough. When winter comes, winter diesel is going to be at 50% of need at best.

2. Railcars need special bearings to carry the loads on the axles. These are made in Germany, the US, and Sweden, all of which have stopped selling them. The Chinese went into business making them but their bearings are @#$% and burn out very quickly. Domestic production is worse. The Russians are steadily stealing bearings from some rail cars (which are sidelined) and using them to keep the rest of the fleet running. This reduces overall capacity.

3. Rail crews are in desperately short supply, as many of the younger men were drafted or called up as reservists. Trains that have always had two engine drivers now have one, and even working 20 hour days things aren't going well. The crews have long past the point of exhaustion. Some rail crews have left the country to avoid the war.

4. Incidents of sabotage and arson are growing from one in 2023 to over 100 this year so far.

GEONETWORK

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Friday, August 07, 2026 - 10:15 pm: Edit

Putin's campaign to conquer the Donetsk fortress belt and force Ukraine to cede the entire province has failed. Putin claimed to have captured the first city, but Ukraine holds 80% of it and there are only small Russian patrols in the gray zones. In the end, it he takes that city, it will cost 200,000 casualties. Russia cannot possibly afford 600,000 casualties to take the other three as the tide continues to turn against him.
THE MILITARY SHOW

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Friday, August 07, 2026 - 10:21 pm: Edit

Russia plans to launch national mobilization in October, drafting 500,000 men into the Army. So far he has relied on "volunteers" and "recruits".

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Friday, August 07, 2026 - 10:55 pm: Edit

Ukraine claims it can hit targets 3000km from the firing positions, although it has yet to prove that and drones (or cruise missiles) have to wiggle through air defenses, losing some "crow flies" range. Zelensky claims that by the end of 2026 they will have new cruise missiles that can reach 4000km. Someone wise cracked that Japan had better be nice to Ukraine. Ukraine claims that by Jan 2028 they will have cruise missiles with a range of 10,000 km, enough to cover all of Russia and hit oil refineries in Calgary, Canada.

The new ballistic missiles due to enter service in September or October include:
FirePoint-7 with a range of 200km.
FirePoint-9 with a range of 800km.
Moscow is about 400km away.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Friday, August 07, 2026 - 11:00 pm: Edit

FirePoint product catalog. Be the first kid on your block to blow up another block.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fire_Point_(Ukrainian_firm)

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, August 09, 2026 - 07:20 am: Edit

Russia’s economy is under stress.

Taxes have gone up, hurting the economy.

Millions of workers are either not getting paid on time or are being forced to take unpaid leave. Many are now expected to work on unpaid leave days. The government has ordered all companies to designate 1% of their employees as available to be pressured into the military. Government agencies outside of defense are cutting staff by 20%.

The arms industry is booming, adding workers and shifts. Oligarchs are making fortunes and do not want the war to stop as they will lose money.

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, August 09, 2026 - 08:18 am: Edit

Military watch magazine reported in late June/early July 2026, that Russian modern tank production (T-90M) is slipping again, to as low a annual rate of just 200-250 units.(roughly Half of what they produced just two years ago.). Stockpiles of old tanks at various Depots are very low.

There are reports that the proportion of armored units to infantry has declined since 2022 to date, but actual numbers are hard to find.

It is also reported that Russia is training 30,000 to 40,000 new recruits annually (various MSM sites), but sparse details compared to what was reported just two years ago.

There are unconfirmed reports that Russia may increase its mobilization status from 1% currently, to a higher percentage, confirming in essence what SVC posted above.

This is NOT good news for Russia or Putin.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Sunday, August 09, 2026 - 10:16 am: Edit

30 to 40k PER MONTH

By Jeff Wile (Jswile) on Sunday, August 09, 2026 - 08:14 pm: Edit

Correction noted:

In double checking, I came across another figure, that year to date, the short fall in under recruitment of new Recruits for the Russian Army is currently some 65,000. The early results for July 2026 is under 1,000. (Which means the July 2026 deficit is 29,000 to 39,000 soldiers.)

Perhaps there is an under reporting error, but if true, spells disaster for Russia.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 12:21 am: Edit

The shortfall goes back to January.