Regarding the latest upgrades to the B-52 force, do you think we'll be upgrading them with SFB type Impulse Engines by 2300? I think they'll still be in service then.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 08:41 am: Edit

Yesterday, Netanyahu rejected the U.S.-led 15-point "Board of Peace" plan for Gaza.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 02:28 pm: Edit

Well, Jessica, you like it when Ukraine rejects Trump's proposals, so do you or don't you like it when Israel does the same thing?

By A David Merritt (Adm) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 02:52 pm: Edit

Honestly, the issue I see here is that PM Netanyahu is a seriously conservative politician, in a country that has a significantly far right wing, as does the rest of the Middle East. In order to stay in power PM Netanyahu needs to make policies that will not meet with approval from many of his neighbors, and President Trump needs to work with the other Middle Eastern countries, if he continues to avoid making preparations for a land invasion, and be willing to carry it out if needed. As long as PM Netanyahu and Prince Mohammed bin Salman do/can not work together President Trumps options are constrained.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 02:56 pm: Edit

Attrition: The Scourge of Islam
August 10, 2026: Why are most terrorism deaths the result of Islamic radicalism? Worse, why is that form of terrorism most common in the Middle East among the Arabs, especially those from the Arabian Peninsula where Islam first appeared 1,500 years ago? Until recently, it was difficult for people in most Middle Eastern countries to openly discuss this tendency, let alone its origins or what could be done about it. That has been changing over the last decade and accelerated in 2017 as Arab nations, especially the oil-rich ones in Arabia, openly developed closer ties with Israel mainly for protection from Iranian threats. A side effect of that was that it has become possible for Arab journalists and officials to openly, in the media, discuss Israel and why it is a good idea for the Arab states, who have been in a state of war with Israel since the late 1940s, to now openly treat Israel as an ally. The main reason is obvious; Israel is the military superpower in the region, despite containing only two percent of the people in the Middle East.
Worldwide Islamic terrorism-related deaths have fallen by over 50 percent since 2014, when there were 35,000. Global deaths hit 19,000 in 2017 and under 14,000 for 2018. Since 2014, five nations Iraq, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Syria, and Pakistan have accounted for most of these deaths. The largest source of Islamic terror deaths during that period was ISIL/Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, a more radical faction of al Qaeda that currently is where the most radical practitioners of Islamic terrorism are found. Islamic terrorists continue to be, as it has been since the 1990s, the main source of terrorism-related deaths, accounting for about 90 percent of the fatalities. The remainder of the terrorist-related deaths are ethnic, often tribal, conflicts in Africa and Asia. Purely political terrorism accounts for a fraction of one percent of all terrorist-related deaths and is outnumbered by terrorism deaths inflicted by common criminals.
Arabs don’t like to dwell on their key role in creating and sustaining this scourge of terrorism. At the same time, their new allies, the Israelis, have a different list of notable accomplishments, including great success in dealing with Islamic terrorism. Arabs don’t like to discuss why the Arabs and Israelis are different, at least not in public. But thanks to the internet, anyone curious about Israeli military capabilities can find out in private. What Arabs can discuss openly is the Israeli achievements in science and technology. It is no secret that Muslims, despite having a population 85 times larger than Jews, win one Nobel prize for every 33 awarded to Jews. Arab journalists place less emphasis on that and more on the fact that tiny Israel is one of the top creators of new inventions worldwide. Arabs attribute this to more effective educational institutions and policies. Arabs can now admit that their government has not been as pro-science/technology as the Israelis in particular and Jews in general. Some Arab leaders attribute the disparity to Arab engineers and scientists being lured to the West by better pay and fewer restrictions, but the basic problem is that there are more opportunities for engineers and scientists in the non-Muslim world.
What is still avoided is a public discussion of the cultural crisis in the Arab world in particular and the Muslim world in general. The crisis is characterized by widespread corruption and a lack of economic, educational, and political progress and performance. By whatever measure you wish to use- Nobel prizes, literacy rates, patents awarded, books published or translated, GDP growth- the Arabs have fallen behind the rest of the world. Part of the problem is the Arab tendency to blame outsiders and to avoid taking responsibility. Tolerating tyranny and resisting change don't help either. Those attitudes are shifting, ever so slowly.
The exact nature of this lethal cultural miasma is best described by enumerating its major components. Let’s start with the fact that most Arab countries are a patchwork of different tribes and groups, and Arab leaders survive by playing one group off against another. Loyalty is to one's group, not the nation. Most countries are dominated by a single group that is usually a minority, like Bedouins in Jordan, Alawites in Syria, Sunnis in Iraq, and Nejdis in Saudi Arabia. All of which means that leadership jobs are assigned not by merit but by loyalty and tribal affiliation.
Islamic schools favor rote memorization, especially of scripture. Most Islamic scholars are hostile to the concept of interpreting the Koran, which is considered the word of God as given to His prophet Mohammed. This has resulted in looking down on Westerners who will look something up if they don't know. Arabs prefer to fake it and pretend it's all in their head. While failure is accepted as the price of learning and success in the West, that sort of thing is not an option for most Arabs. Improvisation and innovation are generally discouraged. Arab government organizations go by the book, while Westerners are more likely to rewrite it and thus be much more effective. Despite years of Western advice on this matter, many Arab officials stick with the old, less effective traditions.
There is little middle management, like NCOs in the military. The ruling class consists of owners, officers, and officials, while everyone else is treated like a different social caste and there is no effort to bridge the gap using what the West calls middle management. The majority of people are treated harshly. Work accidents that would end the careers of Western managers, officers, or officials are ignored in the Arab world, and nobody cares. This is slowly changing, with the steady growth of a proper NCO/sergeants corps and middle management, plus better management attitudes towards their subordinates. But the old ways often return, with disastrous effects on the morale and effectiveness of the average Arab.
Not surprisingly, in Arab cultures, the ruling class is despised by their subordinates, and this does not bother the leaders much at all. Many Arab leaders simply cannot understand how treating subordinates decently, unless they are family, will have any benefit. This is another old tradition that dies hard.
Paranoia prevents adequate training. This is made worse by the habit of Arab tyrants insisting that their subordinate organizations maintain little contact with one another, thereby ensuring that no subordinate leader can become powerful enough to overthrow the commander. Subordinate organizations are purposely kept from working together or communicating on a large scale. Arab subordinate leaders don't have as broad a knowledge of what their subordinates do as their Western counterparts do. Promotions are based more on political reliability than proficiency and efficiency. Arab leaders prefer to be feared, rather than respected, by their subordinates. This approach leads to poorly trained populations and low morale. A few rousing speeches about the Muslim Brotherhood before a national emergency boils over does little to repair the damage. Many, if not most, Arab leaders now know that the paranoia and parochialism are bad, but ancient traditions are hard to abandon.
Arab leaders often do not trust each other. While an American manager or officer can reasonably be confident that the others they work with will be competent and reliable, Arabs in similar situations seriously doubt that their peers will do their jobs on time or accurately. This is an inefficient and sometimes fatal attitude. It's been difficult getting Arab leaders to change when it comes to trust.
Arab leaders consider it acceptable to lie to subordinates and allies to further their personal agendas. This has had catastrophic consequences throughout Arab history and continues to make progress difficult. When called out on this behavior, Arabs will assert that they were misunderstood. This is still going on.
While Western American middle managers and Westerners in general are only too happy to impart their wisdom and skills to others because teaching is the ultimate expression of prestige, Arabs tend to keep technical information and manuals secret. To Arabs, the value and prestige of an individual is based not on what he can teach but on what he knows that no one else knows. This destructive habit persists despite years of American advisors patiently explaining why it is counterproductive.
While Westerners thrive on competition among themselves, Arab leaders avoid this as the loser would be humiliated. Better for everyone to fail together than to allow competition, even if it eventually benefits everyone. This attitude is still a factor in the Arab world.
Westerners are taught leadership and technology; Arabs are taught only technology and not nearly enough. Leadership receives little attention, as Arab leaders are assumed to know it by virtue of their social status as appointed leaders. The new generation of Arab leaders has been taught leadership, but for too many of them, it is an alien concept they do not understand or know how to apply.
Initiative is considered a dangerous trait in the Arab world, so subordinates prefer to fail rather than make an independent decision. Large-scale enterprises are micromanaged by senior leaders, who prefer to suffer defeat rather than lose control of their subordinates. Even worse, an Arab manager will not tell a Western counterpart why he cannot make the decision, or even that he cannot make it, leaving Western managers angry and frustrated because the Arabs won't make a decision. The Arab leaders simply will not admit that they do not have that authority. The new generation of Arab managers has been sent to Western management schools, but there's still little enthusiasm for initiative, which is often seen as a decadent and dangerous Western import.
Lack of initiative makes it difficult for Arabs to maintain modern equipment. Complex modern devices require on-the-spot maintenance, and that means delegating authority, information, and tools. Arab cultures avoid doing this and prefer to use easier to control central repair shops. This makes the timely maintenance of equipment difficult. Entrepreneurs, often non-Arab Muslims, frequently handle a lot of the maintenance. This is still a problem throughout the Middle East, where the oil-rich nations have most of their non-government operations staffed by foreigners.
Security is maniacal. Everything, even vaguely military or government-related, is top secret. While Western military and corporate promotion lists are routinely published, this rarely happens in Arab organizations. Officers and managers are suddenly transferred without warning to prevent them from forming alliances or networks. Any team spirit among officials is discouraged.
All these traits were reinforced from the 1950s to the 1980s by Soviet advisors and by admiration for the success of Soviet socialism and management practices. To the Russians, anything government-related was secret, subordinates were scum, there was no functional middle management system, and everyone was paranoid about everyone else. These were not communist traits but Russian customs that had existed for centuries. They were adopted by the communists to make their dictatorship more secure from rebellion. Arab dictators avidly accepted this kind of advice but were still concerned about how rapidly the communist dictatorships all came tumbling down between 1989 and 1991. Russian influence is still fondly remembered because the Russians developed highly effective police-state methods. This made it easier for the police and military to control a country, even if despicable methods were used. While these Russian techniques can work to hunt down terrorists in a police state, they don't work in any other useful endeavors, and that’s the main reason the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
These counterproductive traits are ancient and predate Islam, but the nature of Islamic theology has perpetuated them in Muslim nations. While the West eventually separated church and state, helped by a few useful bits of advice in the Christian Bible, that is more difficult with Islam because the word Islam literally means submission and Muslim scripture is quite specific about Islam being a way of life and a form of government as well as a religion.
Most of these bad habits are ancient, but they are not immune to change, even when Islam is involved. A quick look at the history of the Islamic world since World War II shows one constant: poor leadership. There are exceptions. Turkey, starting in the 1920s, sought to reform and modernize its governmental and cultural institutions, including a clear separation of church and state. Malaysia, after a chaotic beginning in the 1950s, sorted itself out and created an efficient government by Muslim standards, adopting much of the English common law used during Britain's colonial rule. This included a judiciary that was rather incorruptible, especially by local standards. This gave Malaysia a big economic advantage, and led to rapid economic growth, despite some loud political squabbles. Islamic radicals never got a foothold in Malaysia, although some exist there. But Malaysians in general, and local counter-terrorism forces in particular, are not hospitable to Islamic terrorists.
These reforms are always under assault by Islamic conservatives. The Islamic party that has run the Turkish government since 2003 has become increasingly paranoid about religion and anyone not Muslim. The Turkish president has been openly accusing the non-Muslim world of making war on Islam. This is the same attitude Islamic terrorists use to justify their attacks on non-Muslim targets. Yet Turkey has remained a member of NATO and taken strong measures to shut down Islamic terrorist groups inside Turkey.
Since the 1920s, Turkey has kept church and state separate, but the current government wants to change that and is gradually doing so. One threat involved a proposal to undo the 1928 law that made the Roman alphabet standard. This would be done by again teaching the Arabic alphabet in schools and eventually dropping the Roman alphabet completely. This proposal was defeated, but the government did make it legal to teach the old Turkish documents using Arabic script in religious schools. In 1928, the adoption of the Roman alphabet linked Turkey more closely, culturally and economically, with the West, and those connections are proving difficult to undo. Going back to the Arabic alphabet was very unpopular and the government quickly discovered that most Turks opposed this change. In response to this defeat, the government added more mandatory Islamic religious instruction in schools.
To make matters worse, the Turkish Islamic politicians got elected to power on the promise of cleaning up the corruption that was increasingly hurting the economy as well as politics and life in general. For nearly a decade, the Islamic politicians did reduce the corruption, but then evidence began to appear that many of the Islamic politicians had themselves become corrupt in addition to threatening to end the separation of church and state as well. The Islamic government sought to silence those who were openly criticizing bad behavior by pro-Islam politicians. This despite the fact that ISIL considers the current Turkish government un-Islamic and wants to replace it, by force if necessary, and make largely secular Turkey part of the new caliphate. Most Turks oppose ISIL, but most Turks don’t want a civil war over the issue and are trying to settle the matter via elections. That may or may not work depending on how many Islamic politicians agree to respect the democratic process. Yet Islamic radicals are quite certain that democracy, and many other Western customs like education for women and free speech, are un-Islamic and must be avoided. The constant in the current outbreak of terrorist violence is religion and particularly Islam. It is dangerous to point that out, but, as the Arabs have discovered, even more dangerous to try and ignore.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 02:58 pm: Edit

Air Defense: USMC Adopts Israeli Iron Dome
August 9, 2026: In order to fulfill the requirement for MIRC/Medium-Range Intercept Capability air defense, Marine forces operating in the Western Pacific now have Iron Dome batteries. Testing and training have been completed for the new American mobile Iron Dome system. The Marines have already tested Israel’s Iron Dome Tamir missiles as part of its mobile MRIC system. Existing Iron Dome missile launchers hold 20 Tamir missiles. Each 160mm-diameter Tamir weighs 90 kg and is 3 meters long. Tamir’s guidance system has a radar and a proximity fuze that detect the size and speed of a nearby target and detonate the warhead only if the right type of target, such as a drone, cruise missile, or rocket, is detected. Because of the addition of American features to destroy cruise missiles and large drones, the cost per Tamir missile rose from $50,000 to nearly $150,000. MRIC uses its Tamir missiles in conjunction with a Marine radar and command-and-control system. For MRIC, the Americans also manufactured Tamir missiles but rebranded them as Skyhunter missiles.
The Army's HEMTT (Heavy Expanded Mobility Tactical Truck) is used to transport a mobile Iron Dome system for use by the Army and the Marines. These vehicles have a diesel-electric drive, so there is plenty of power for the radar and electric motors used by an anti-aircraft system. The 8x8 HEMTT trucks are built for cross-country operations and kept pace with armored formations during the 1991 and 2003 wars. Most of the 13,000 Army HEMTTs normally haul nine tons of cargo or 2500 gallons of fuel. That’s enough capacity for a mobile Iron Dome.
Six years ago, Tamir proved its ability to down cruise missiles and drones using the Iron Dome radar and fire control system. In that test, Iron Dome systems on land and Israeli ships were integrated into a multi-layer air defense system that included David’s Sling and the Arrow ABM/Anti-Ballistic Missile system. MRIC can use other air defense search, fire control, and targeting management systems. With that, Israel began offering the Tamir missiles and launchers to customers such as the American MRIC.
Continuous Israeli upgrades of Iron Dome enabled it to shoot down various types of drones. This required some software modifications and was done at the request of the American Army. Iron Dome was already capable of shooting down aircraft and helicopters. The UAVs were often much smaller, but so are the rockets and mortar shells Iron Dome can knock down. The United States has contributed over a billion dollars to the development and procurement of Iron Dome. Periodically adding new features like this helps export sales.
The Americans were impressed, which led to the development of MRIC to support mobile combat units. Iron Dome has been in service since 2011 and has proven itself in combat. Iron Dome uses two radars to quickly calculate the trajectory of the incoming rocket and do nothing if the rocket trajectory indicates it is going to land in an uninhabited area. But if the computers predict a rocket is coming down in an inhabited area, one $50,000 Tamir guided missile is fired to intercept it. This, and the fact that the Iron Dome fire control system can track hundreds of incoming missiles at once, makes the system cost-effective. So far, Iron Dome has shot down over 800 rockets, which is about 85 percent of the rockets it calculated were headed for a populated area. The Tamir missiles are effective against rockets, mortar shells, and 155mm artillery shells. Iron Dome can also shoot down aircraft and helicopters at altitudes up to 10 kilometers/32,000 feet. Iron Dome is Israel’s principal defense against short-range rockets fired from Gaza or Lebanon. Work is underway to extend the Iron Dome's range from 70 to over 200 kilometers, but it is stalled due to budget shortages.
The MRIC radar operates differently to determine which incoming threat justifies an interceptor missile. In a combat situation, the areas to be defended often change. MRIC provides Marines or soldiers moving into a new area with protection against the most threatening rocket, artillery, or mortar fire. This gives the advancing forces an edge and demoralizes defenders.
Israel initially designed Iron Dome to only defend stationary targets. By 2014, Israel had fifteen batteries of Iron Dome and over 2,000 Tamir missiles. That was enough to shut down the Hamas effort to hit Israel with thousands of rockets. Each battery has radar, fire control equipment, and 3-4 missile launchers and costs about $37-50 million depending on how many missiles it is shipped with. With the current system, a battery with two radars and three launchers costs about $100 million and can protect an area of about 150 square kilometers.
In 2014, the American Army purchased an Iron Dome anti-rocket battery from Israel, mainly to determine if Iron Dome would be worth getting for deployment in Iraq and Afghanistan, where American troops were still stationed. This American purchase was the first export sale of Iron Dome. The Americans bought two more batteries in 2020 and 2021. Israeli efforts to export their Iron Dome anti-rocket system were slow initially but eventually succeeded with Azerbaijan, India, and several other countries placing orders. The Israeli manufacturer of Iron Dome thought this would make Iron Dome a hot export item. After all, Israel is one of the top ten weapons exporters in the world. A major reason is that most of Israel’s arms exports are combat-tested. Although the Iron Dome system had succeeded in shooting down about 85 percent of the rockets headed for Israeli populated areas, that was a unique situation. Continued success eventually made Iron Dome exportable, especially after the anti-aircraft, drone, and cruise missile capabilities were added. The Americans were willing to buy more Iron Dome systems but wanted access to the fire control source code. Israel refused because American security is less strict than Israel’s and a leak of that source code would enable an enemy to determine exploitable weaknesses in Iron Dome. This software dispute was eventually resolved.
The main problem is that Iron Dome was designed to deal with an enemy that is a terrorist organization operating out of Gaza that is basically home for Palestinian refugees who have been there for over 60 years and want nothing less than the destruction of Israel. Hezbollah, a similar organization, controls southern Lebanon and is also dedicated to the destruction of Israel, using 40,000 unguided rockets they received from Iran. This is the unique situation that Iron Dome was designed to deal with. When faced with a massive launch of rockets at once, Iron Dome is unable to shoot down all of those headed for populated areas. While the intercept rate is lower, Iron Dome has shown it can still reduce Israeli casualties and property damage. Iron Dome recently added a high-powered laser device that can knock down many rockets but at shorter ranges. MRIC may also receive the laser weapon, but it will require a large generator on the MRIC to supply power.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 02:58 pm: Edit

Winning: Ukrainian Black Sea Victory
August 9, 2026: Ukraine recently won a significant victory in the Black Sea. This took place in the Sea of Azov, an extension of the northeastern Black Sea. Last month, Russia assembled 38 tankers in the Sea of Azov near the damaged Kerch Strait bridge. Operating under international sanctions, the Russian shadow fleet tankers were attempting to deliver fuel to the remaining Russian bases on the Crimean Peninsula. Ukrainian drones attacked these ships, and by the end of July, about 40 of these ships had been sunk or so damaged as to be unfit for service. The Ukrainian drones continue searching for Russian freighters, ships, and tankers, and by the end of the year, Russian ships will no longer operate in the Sea of Azov. That means little Russian commercial shipping will be able to operate in the Black Sea at all.
It was only two years ago that the Russian Black Sea Fleet was largely destroyed by Ukrainian airborne and naval drones, as well as land-based anti-ship missiles. About a third of Russian ships survived, and these took refuge 488 kilometers away in east coast Black Sea ports. The Black Sea Fleet remained there until Ukrainian drones came for all Russian shipping in the area. There were other problems with repairing damaged ships.
Since the 1990s, a Russian military modernization effort has been underway as the government has recognized the need to address rapidly aging military equipment. In many cases, these purchases were essential because new equipment and weapons purchases stopped, with a few exceptions such as ballistic missiles, during the 1990s. As a result, most of the armed forces were still using Cold War-era weapons and equipment manufactured in the 1970s and 80s. Fortunately, even older 1950s- and 60s-era equipment was not discarded after the armed forces shrank by 80 percent in the 1990s. Since Russian defense industries were never world-class, the Russian military was usually stuck with Cold War-era equipment that was not competitive with the newer generations of weapons and accessories that Western forces were receiving.
It was believed that, by the end of the 1990s, at least a third of the Cold War-era equipment would be replaced. In some categories, especially those requiring new technology, over 80 percent of the older equipment needed replacements. The government had been telling the military about these big plans, and when they didn’t deliver, morale suffered. This happened quickly in the Navy because officers and sailors had been told that money would be available to maintain more ships, allowing them to spend more time at sea. It turned out that existing ships couldn’t handle heavy use and workload because corruption crippled repair efforts. That meant there had to be either more new ships or expensive, extensive refurbishments of existing warships. After the 1990s, the air force resumed long-range air patrols over areas off the Russian coast, which had not seen Russian navy or air force activity since the 1980s. From 1991 until quite recently, Russian warships spent most of their time tied up at dock, meaning an entire generation of sailors lacked experience at sea.
The big problem so far is that the new equipment we have received is unimpressive. The troops can go online to find videos and technical specifications for many contemporary Western ships and equipment. The Russian equivalents rarely look good in comparison. But at least they aren’t stuck with aging Cold War-era equipment that rarely works.
The Russian armed forces have already come to grips with the fact that they will never return to the glory days of the Soviet Union, which dissolved in 1991. The army was called the Red Army back then, and the mighty Soviet naval force was known as the Red Fleet. During the Cold War, the armed forces had five times as many troops, over five million of them. Before 1991, the military received 10-20 percent of the national GDP, estimated at about two trillion dollars. No one is sure of the exact amount, as the communists were not big fans of accountants and accurate financial reporting. Currently, Russia is playing by Western European rules regarding military spending, with no more than 3-4 percent of GDP going to the military. With a $2.1 trillion economy that continues to grow, the generals and admirals can expect a lot more cash to work with. But most of this money went to replace Cold War-era weapons, which were considered outdated and of limited usefulness in the 21st century. At that point, the Ukraine War and widespread use of air, land, and naval drones emerged to change everything.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 02:59 pm: Edit

Russia: Attacking The Shadow Fleet
August 8, 2026: Two months ago, the Russian oil tanker Deliver was seized in the Mediterranean by a French warship. The Deliver was using falsified or meaningless documents and, like so many other Shadow Fleet tankers, was either underinsured or uninsured and operating under a false flag. Delivery purported to be registered in Cameroon, but wasn't. Any of those failings is illegal under maritime law and entitles any nation to seize a ship. This power was used only rarely until the US captured Venezuelan dictator Maduro and asserted these powers. In the past few months, other nations, such as Britain, France, and Germany, have also begun to do so.
Earlier this year, Germany began seizing illegal Russian Shadow Fleet tankers that move sanctioned Russian oil to customers worldwide. This Shadow Fleet consists of about five hundred ships, many of them barely seaworthy and lacking insurance. Since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and was hit with the first of several rounds of economic sanctions, the Shadow Fleet began with about a hundred ships and grew each year. Oil is Russia’s principal export and the source of the money needed to maintain its forces in Ukraine. Germany is one of the 32 NATO nations enforcing the sanctions, which has led to the current crackdown on Shadow Fleet ships in the Baltic Sea. This body of water can only be entered via the Danish Straits. At the other end of the Baltic is the Russian port of St Petersburg. If the German crackdown continues and intensifies, the Baltic will no longer be available to the Shadow Fleet.
Russia’s economy and war effort against Ukraine are financed by oil and other energy exports. Russia is operating under severe economic sanctions imposed to reduce that income and create economic conditions for Russia that make it difficult to impossible to continue its war in Ukraine.
The key to Russian oil exports is the use of foreign tankers to smuggle its petroleum and coal from Russia to overseas customers. 80 percent of China's oil is transported by pipeline and cannot be disrupted. China accounts for nearly half of Russian petroleum and other energy exports. It’s the other half that is at risk because of a growing list of sanctions.
The economic sanctions were imposed on Russia because of its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, in an effort to reduce its hard currency income from exports of oil and natural gas. These are the main Russian exports and the major source of income for the Russian government and war effort. To evade these sanctions, Russia created a growing shadow fleet of oil tankers purchased and/or leased abroad and obtained unrestricted access to a Chinese smuggler haven maintained in Hong Kong.
Current estimates are that over 500 tankers are smuggling sanctioned Russian petroleum to customers in China, India, the European Union/EU, Turkey and Myanmar. Most refined petroleum products go to Turkey, China, Brazil, Singapore and India. The rest goes to nine countries in the Middle East, Africa and Taiwan. China has been buying 47 percent of the crude oil, while India takes 37 percent, followed by Turkey and the EU with six percent each. China, India and Turkey account for about 90 percent of Russian income from the sale of oil, natural gas and coal. The U.S. is imposing additional tariffs on countries that import Russian oil. India is already subject to these tariffs, which increase what it has to pay for imports from the United States. The Americans are negotiating with China and Turkey over what tariffs are being imposed to discourage Russian oil imports.
The nations enforcing the sanctions, particularly the United States, have tracked the routes of the Russian shadow fleet and noted Hong Kong's key role in arranging the movement of sanctioned Russian oil to its primary customers in China and India. Hong Kong is also a major source of weapons and munitions for sanctioned nations. A current customer is Russia. Hong Kong does this by allowing Russian tankers and cargo ships, operating under false credentials to conceal their Russian affiliation, to bring in Russian oil and other raw materials. The Russian ships then leave Hong Kong carrying weapons for their war in Ukraine.
Another major player in the Russian smuggling effort is North Korea. For years, North Korea has been buying small, second-hand cargo and tanker ships and using them for smuggling. A favored evasion technique is to take on or transfer cargo at sea within its own territorial waters. The North Korean merchant fleet consists of about 150 ships, mostly purchased from Chinese firms.
North Korea is a notorious and persistent maritime smuggler. Because of North Korean smuggling, the United States expanded its maritime smuggling and sanctions enforcement program in 2018 when a new multi-national enforcement organization was created. Initial members were the United States, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Britain, France, South Korea, and Japan. The Enforcement Coordination Cell, or ECC, is enforcing the UN sanctions that curb North Korean smuggling related to items needed for their nuclear and ballistic missile programs. In addition, the ECC allowed member nations to enforce other sanctions or naval missions that their governments prioritized. The U.S. has since invited India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines to join and assist with monitoring growing Chinese violations of offshore water rights, especially in the South China Sea and other areas of the West Pacific.
The ECC focuses on the 2,000-kilometer-long shipping lane from the Indian Ocean, through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea, to North Korea. Along this route, not only North Korean-flagged ships participate in smuggling, but also Chinese, Taiwanese, Liberian, and Sri Lankan ships, as well as independent vessels that fly whatever flag they believe will keep them from being seized for smuggling. Earlier U.S. efforts had already identified many North Korean and Iranian-owned tankers and cargo ships that were often engaged in smuggling. This led Iran and North Korea to use their own ships less and willing foreign ships instead. These third-party ships are the ones the ECC sought to identify. These ships can be identified, along with their owners, and the owners can have banking and other sanctions placed on them. Many nations not part of the ECC but economic partners of ECC members will cooperate if a smuggler ship visits one of their ports. At that point, the captain can be arrested and the ships detained.
The ECC member warships do not depend on inspecting suspicious ships while at sea but on confirming who is where and when. This is especially useful for spotting smugglers who often turn off their location beacons and continue in running dark mode. These location beacons transmit their current ID and location to any nearby ships and, often via satellite, to their owner and international shipping organizations. The location data, past and current, can be found on several public websites. The beacons exist mainly as a safety measure for ships operating at night or in bad weather in heavily used shipping lanes. Smugglers have learned to turn off their beacons near a port where they are assumed to have docked or anchored offshore, waiting for a dock to become available.
Some smugglers are using spoofing, a form of jamming that just modifies the beacon signal to present a false location. This is where warships and maritime aircraft come in: they can identify ships visually or by radar, followed by visual inspection. This is more damaging to the smugglers because it provides more evidence that their ship was involved in smuggling. With enough evidence, you can go after the ship owners and seize the ship whenever it enters coastal waters within 22 kilometers of land belonging to a nation that will seize outlaw ships. The United States has also seized such ships in the open sea, a practice that governments can and have undertaken under international law.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 03:00 pm: Edit

Russia: Penal Battalions Evolve
August 8, 2026: Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, it began recruiting convicts from prisons. If a convict soldier survived a certain period at the front, they received a pardon. So far, several hundred thousand convicts have served as infantry for the war in Ukraine. This is not a new policy, for in World War II Josef Stalin ordered the formation of Penal Battalions in 1942, and these men, called shtrafbats, were encouraged by a secret police machine-gun emplaced behind them to kill any soldiers who hesitated or retreated. Over 400,000 shtrafbats served during the Great Patriotic War, as World War II was called in Russia. Most did not survive the war, although those who performed heroically or accomplished a significant battlefield feat were often promoted, or restored to their pre-shtrafbats rank and received medals. Total losses in that war were 27 million, about 13 percent of the prewar population. Most of the losses were civilians caught in the middle of the largest and most devastating war of the 20 th Century.
In the Ukraine war, Russian shtrafbats are treated in a similar fashion, although rehabilitated Russian soldiers will often desert rather than return to the Ukrainian battles, where drones in the air and on the ground make life miserable and short for Russians unfortunate enough to find themselves there. In at least one battle, the average lifespan of Russian soldiers was about 30 minutes.
Russia has been having other problems. Since they unexpectedly invaded Ukraine in 2022, Russian soldiers have been seeking ways to avoid going to war. Russians quickly realized that Ukraine was a dangerous place for armed Russians. For Russian deserters, Russia was also a dangerous place to be. The penalty for desertion, if caught and convicted, is ten years in prison. After that, you are considered an unreliable traitor in Russia. If deserters leave Russia for another country, they are often seen as possibly dangerous visitors, and some are accused of being spies or saboteurs.
The growing number of Russian soldiers deserting the army is an obvious sign of the unpopularity of the war in Ukraine. It’s illegal in Russia to openly oppose the war. Laws that made opposition to the war illegal are a recent development. This means the Russian media cannot mention that Russian forces have suffered 1.5 million dead, wounded, and missing so far. The growing number of deserters is something the government is keen to keep secret. Military-age Russian men are willing to do just about anything to avoid fighting in Ukraine. So far, over a million military-age men have fled the country to avoid the war in Ukraine. Getting out of Russia legally is a problem but not impossible to solve. These men believe the war will continue until Russia gets a new leader.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 03:01 pm: Edit

Air Defense: Machinegun Drone Destruction System
August 7, 2026: The USMC has converted its standard M240 7.62 mm machine guns into automated systems for drone interception and destruction. This is done by adding an automated AI-controlled mount, creating the L-MADIS/Light Marine Air Defense Integrated System. Also known as Bullfrog, the L-MADIS equipment will be distributed to Marine units expected to encounter small- and medium-sized attack drones as are encountered in Ukraine. L-MADIS will detect, track, and identify targets, but the Marine operator makes the firing decision.
L-MADIS fires 850 rounds per minute, which means each destroyed drone costs about $20, mostly for ammunition and wear and tear on L-MADIS. The M240 has been in use since 1977. Designed in Belgium by FN Herstal, each M240 weighs 12.54 kg and has a 630 mm long barrel. Effective firing range is 800 to 1,800 meters, depending on the mount used and the stability of the firing position. Each M240 costs about $7,000. Soldiers and Marines often use the M240 while advancing, with the machine guns forcing enemy troops to keep their heads down. Ammunition is in the form of fifty-round links. Each ammo bag is attached to the weapon's side.
When it first entered service, the M240S had a malfunction once every 7,000 rounds fired. That has improved over the decades, and failures now occur every 26,000 rounds. These failures can be quickly fixed, but when they occur in combat, the operator must rely on his training to recover quickly.
The Marines are particularly adept at developing special training methods. For example, several decades ago, they developed their Talking Guns tactic, in which two machine guns work in tandem. Each gun fires a short burst, then waits to hear the other gun fire its short burst before firing another. This ensures that the bursts are the proper six to eight seconds apart. Talking guns don't really help when the two machine guns are firing on different targets, although they do help each gun maintain its timing. It would be better to train each gun crew to count its own intervals, as it is difficult in combat to hear clearly what the other gun crew is doing.
There is also a tendency of one gun to increase its rate of fire when the second is reloading. This doesn't accomplish much if the two guns are not firing on exactly the same target. Doctrine calls for the gunner's left hand to remain on the elevating wheel of the traversing & elevation mechanism. This allows the gunner to adjust the fall of his rounds as needed or as directed by the team leader. Without intense training, however, the gunner tends to move his hand back to the gun after each adjustment. This makes the weapon less stable and harder to adjust quickly. Training gun teams on a firing range tends to get them used to thinking they are fighting alone rather than as part of a platoon.
Troops must also be trained to maintain situational awareness. During training maneuvers, a sergeant or officer should periodically ask the team what else is going on around them to encourage them to keep the broader picture in mind. When two machineguns are working together, something the Marine Corps demands of its riflemen, the junior gun crew should be deployed farther forward than the senior crew. This will allow the senior team leader to keep an eye on the other gun and coordinate barrel changes and reloading. One good trick is to start with a 100-round belt for one gun and a 200-round belt for the other. After firing the initial belt, each gun uses 200-round belts. This helps stagger the reloading cycles. The doctrinal rate of fire is a burst of 6-8 rounds followed by a pause of 6-8 seconds. As a practical matter, if friendly troops are not exposed while advancing on the target, a 10-12-second pause will be sufficient to keep the enemy pinned down.
More than half of American military operations are offensive, but over 90 percent of machine gun training focuses on defensive tactics. Gun crews should be trained in how to select and occupy a firing position while remaining under cover. One training technique is to tape a laser pointer to a cleaning rod. Insert this into the barrel of the weapon when dry firing inside a dimly lit large building, and the team leader can track the abilities of the gunner to aim and adjust his weapon. Gun crews should carry empty sandbags to help them set up interim firing positions during an advance. If they have access to a vehicle, they should have filled bags on it to get the gun into action faster.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 03:12 pm: Edit

Lots of politicians have "other than national interest" restrictions on their positions.

Putin cannot back down without ending up out a window.

Hamas cannot back down without admitting that the whole "mission from God" thing was made up.

Iran's guards corp cannot back down without ending up in front of firing squads.

Both red and blue in this country are medium-sized tents and have to keep everyone inside the tent.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 03:22 pm: Edit

Not wanting to tread on Jessica's Toes - I don't think specifically Netanyahu has much choice.

Accept Trumps deal - Trump calls and thanks him - and the Israeli Right Wing dump in/he loses in their elections.

Reject Trumps deal - Trump calls him threatens bim what ever - but the Israeli Right Wing worships him/he wins their elections.

Israel clearly has a choice and hopefully Hamas can be persuaded the Pen is mightier than the Sword (but if you try and pull a fast one and don't go throug with it, Gaza gets swept of 100% of it's population and the UAE gets to build Western "Dubai".)

But Politics is Politics - and alas the death of Yitzhak Rabin showed not everyone is willing to put their nation first.

By Paul Howard (Raven) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 03:37 pm: Edit

Didn't watch it (I think there was shall we say a strong politcal element ot it) - but I caught a commment saying the Challenger II was the best tank in the world and in Ukraine it showed why and so NATO should buy them.

A quick search shows of the 14 Challener II's sent - 2 to 4 have probably been destroyed - so probably 25%+ are destoyed.

31 M1's sent and 20 to 27 have been destroyed - so probaby 70%) destroyed.

Leopald II - numnbers are less vague, 160+ have been sent and 35 to 40 are recorded as killed - might be less than 30% therefore.

Some might have been partly destroyed and repaired - hence numbers do vary.

With more tanks Leopalds and M1's might have been used more AND needed to be repaired less strong - so loss numbers might again paint a different picture.

Assuming Costs might not be the same (a Leopald II 2A4 is clearly cheaper than a 2A6) - which Tank would people go for?

By Garth L. Getgen (Sgt_G) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 05:54 pm: Edit

I think it matters HOW they were destroyed, not just the numbers or percentage destroyed, to get the whole picture if which one is 'best'. If Tank A have a weakness that can easily be fixed, it becomes a better tank. If Tank B's weakness can't be fixed of costs too much, it remains a 'good but not great' tank.


Garth L. Getgen

By MarkSHoyle (Bolo) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 08:15 pm: Edit

Numerous videos (I imagine coming out of Russia) of the Drone attacks on the Wildberry sites....

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 08:38 pm: Edit

When someone says "this tank is best, you should buy it" I realize I'm talking to a salesman not a military analyst who knows what he's talking about.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 08:54 pm: Edit

In other news: Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey have announced a mutual defense pact. It's an interesting combination - Pakistan has nuclear weapons, Turkey has a ridiculous number of troops, and Saudi Arabia has more money than Midas, which gives them a fair few options.

By Jessica Orsini (Jessica_Orsini) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 08:58 pm: Edit

Steve: the situation in, and Trump's plans for, Gaza are rather different from the situation in, and Trump's plans for, Ukraine. The 15-point proposal was pretty much the last best chance at actually getting peace in Gaza. The "let Russia keep what they took and, by the way, you agree to be a neutral state" proposal for Ukraine was a 21st-century Sudetenland affair that would see Russia coming back in a few years to try to take more bites from the apple.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 10, 2026 - 10:59 pm: Edit

I don’t know that any peace deal for Gaza would work other than shipping an entire population to Alpha Centauri. You cannot make any deal with radical islamists who thing God assigned them a mission. It would be like telling Texas that the only path to peace with Oklahoma is to shut down the definition of Texas.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 - 01:22 pm: Edit

1) Dissolving the UN special status of the Gaza "refugees" would be a start. Some are now 5th or 6th generation refugees.

2) "Currently, Russia is playing by Western European rules regarding military spending, with no more than 3-4 percent of GDP going to the military. With a $2.1 trillion economy that continues to grow," umm, no. Both the % of GDP and growth statements are just wrong.

3) For a Gaza peace deal there needs to be serious consequences for violations. Like a 200 meter exclusion zone inside Gaza. Which will move in as violations continue. IMHO Israel should start by just not interacting with Gaza. No water supplied, no electricity supplied, no traffic except via the Egyptian border... Recognize the PA as a sovereign state over JUST the west bank and pull out indefensible settler enclaves. Yes this will hurt.

By Douglas Lampert (Dlampert) on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 - 01:27 pm: Edit

I think Isreal cutting off Gaza would quickly kill most of the population of Gaza, AFAIK, they have no fresh water supplies except unpaid for supplies from Isreal.

By Steve Petrick (Petrick) on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 - 02:17 pm: Edit

I recall reading that the Arabs were sucking the water from the water table DELIBERATELY to cause salt water to infiltrate the system and thus ruin the Israeli farmland and so drive the Israelis from the Holy Land. This particular scheme made no mention of what the Arabs would do with the wasteland they intended to inherit.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 - 03:08 pm: Edit

China: The Economy Crashes
August 11, 2026: Between April and June, the Chinese economy expanded more slowly than it had since 2022. The cause of this was declining household consumption, which blurred manufacturing efforts and exports. All this increased anxiety over the prospects of long-term sustainability and the creation of unbalanced growth.
Local and international economists expected five percent growth in the first quarter. Actual performance was 14 percent less. China's economy expanded at its slowest pace in over three years in the second quarter, with weak household consumption clouding prospects for strong manufacturing and intensifying concerns over the long-term sustainability of its unbalanced growth model.
All consumption is down in China, particularly among the affluent and the 200 million-strong middle class. Imports of high-end foreign goods have fallen by nearly half. These affluent Chinese have cut their consumption of non-essential items to a fraction of their normal levels. Chinese retail outlets are suffering, with layoffs and bankruptcies spreading. For the majority of Chinese, this means more unemployment and a desperate scramble to secure or create new jobs in the still-vibrant gig economy. High-tech export industries are still going strong, as is demand from overseas customers.
The current economic problems were not so much a surprise as a continuation of economic woes that have been underway for some time. Four years ago, China’s economic problems continued to worsen, notably in bank failures, unemployment rates, and economic growth. About a fifth of 16- to 34-year-olds in China seeking work failed to find it. That’s twice the rate for other industrialized countries. More of these young job seekers, especially recent university graduates, are settling for lower-paying, low-career-growth government jobs. The youth unemployment rate is partly due to the rapid growth in the number of university graduates. At the end of the 20th century, it was one million grads a year. Now it's 11 million a year.
The GDP growth rate continues to slide, and bank failures are growing. The government has stopped announcing annual GDP growth rates and now says it will do its best to sustain economic growth. Those efforts are concentrating on preventing a collapse of the financial system. Bank failures are a major and growing part of the problem. China implemented bank deposit insurance in 2015. It covers losses in bank failure of up to $75,000 per depositor. That protects all but a few percent of depositors, who hold less than half of banks' liquid assets. The problem is the bank must officially fail before depositors can get their money. Currently, nearly half a million depositors are unable to access their money, and the government further erodes confidence in the banking system by tolerating banks' excuses (“we are upgrading our software”) to delay triggering deposit insurance payouts. Customers who protest publicly are silenced by changing their health status to “infected”. Anyone with that designation cannot appear in public without risking arrest and confinement. The more frequently and longer these tactics are used, the more people will lose confidence in the banking system. There is already a lot of illegal activity and corruption in the banking system, and learning more about it has long-term effects on popular attitudes towards the government. This is one reason for the problems contained within Evergrande, the largest real estate firm in China. Evergrande is still sliding towards bankruptcy. Efforts to prevent that have failed so far.
China’s economy was already slowing down when the current covid19 shutdown in Shanghai and elsewhere made matters worse. There is also an unresolved real estate bubble, and more Chinese banks are experiencing liquidity problems as they struggle to meet withdrawal demands. The economic damage caused by all this led to a $5 trillion stimulus program to alleviate worker suffering and provide businesses with the cash needed to keep operating. The actual decline in GDP growth is a state secret but is believed to be severe enough to cause GDP to shrink and mark the official end of decades of high GDP growth. China’s economy, at $18 trillion (or less) per year, is the second-largest in the world. The Americans have economic problems, but not to the extent China does.
This is mainly about the size of their $117 trillion in government debt, which is nearly four times the size of the U.S. debt. China's debt is 6.5 times GDP, while the U.S. debt of $29 trillion is 1.26 times GDP. It’s worse when you take population size into account. China has about four times the population of the U.S., meaning the average Chinese person has about 16 percent of an American's income while carrying far more government debt per capita. Much of that debt stems from millions of housing units built by local governments that few Chinese can afford or choose not to consider, because many of these Ghost Cities are too far from where the jobs are or so defective as to be useless. China’s bond market is the second largest in the world after the United States. With this kind of debt, quality (the ability of debtors to repay) is a major factor. The quality of Chinese debt is much lower than the U.S. or the West in general, and the extent of this problem was deliberately hidden by debtors, especially local governments, for decades. Some of that bad debt is related to BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) projects, which is currently about $60 billion. Poor management, COVID-19, and local violence and corruption turned most of that debt into a liability, or worse, because default either means China assumes ownership of the project or the local government interferes and creates a diplomatic as well as economic problem. All this makes China’s real estate bubble far more dangerous than those encountered in previous major economies.
The situation in the South China Sea is becoming more difficult for China because the Philippines has implemented measures to reduce the Chinese threat by curbing corrupt Chinese influence in the country. That is the main reason why the new Filipino government is canceling three Chinese-financed railroad construction projects worth nine billion dollars. This was part of a $24 billion Chinese proposal for projects that improved Filipino ports and transportation networks. The cancellation of these projects has been under consideration for over a year due to vague loan terms and China's failure to perform. The Chinese are believed to be using the loan program as a weapon to coerce the Philippines into making concessions in the South China Sea.
A national opinion survey conducted at the end of June found that Filipinos trusted the United States, Australia and Japan the most while trusting China and Russia the least. Respondents were asked to rank a list of 10 nations by trustworthiness. The results of the survey, ranked by trust, were the United States, Australia, Japan, Germany, South Korea, Britain, Indonesia, India, Russia, and China. There was some support for China, but the U.S. had more than three times as much support. This meant the Americans had the support of most Filipinos while China had only a small minority. Only Russia and China had the majority of Filipinos mistrusting them. Trust of Russia used to be positive, but the February invasion of Ukraine and Chinese support for it made Russia nearly as untrustworthy as China to most Filipinos. Until China expanded its “lost territory” claims to the South China Sea nearly two decades ago. China was seen as a potential ally of, and investor in, the Philippines. Despite numerous Filipino diplomatic efforts, China refused to compromise on its claims. At this point, China is seen as the greatest threat to the Philippines, especially since the Chinese appear to have additional claims on Filipino territory and independence as a nation.
FYEO

By Carl-Magnus Carlsson (Hardcore) on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 - 03:08 pm: Edit

Got a source for that? Can't find anything online.
Only that it is the usual causes for problems in the region; over-extraction, armed conflict, mismanagement etc. and, in this case, living in one of the most arid places on the planet.

By Douglas Lampert (Dlampert) on Tuesday, August 11, 2026 - 03:29 pm: Edit

Yeah, I'm dubious about deliberately drawing water from the aquifer to hurt Isreal. If you're draining your own aquifer, the effects on Isreal are likely to be less than what you're doing to your own grandchildren. To draw from the Israeli aquifer, you'd need to do some angled drilling, and it's likely that Isreal would be better at that game than the arabs.

I'm fairly sure I'd heard the idea that this was being done deliberately somewhere else, and dismissed it as excessively unlikely.

The intersting water proposal is a canal/pipe from the Mediteranian to the Dead Sea, you could use the power from the dropoff to both provide hydro-electic power and for large scale reverse osmosis water desalination. It's one of those proposals that if these people weren't all shooting at each other semi-regularly, this would be a wonderful thing to everyone's benefit.