What is your source for gas availability?

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 - 09:50 am: Edit

Saw it on tv or YouTube, don’t remember where but I don’t watch stuff that’s not solid. Maybe military show, maybe sun.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 - 11:02 am: Edit

"Putin will draft 500,000 men into the military"

I think TRY should be inserted into that quote...

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 - 11:06 am: Edit

Oh, he will draft them, but whether they show up when they get their post card...

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 - 11:13 am: Edit

USAF C17 just arrived in Moscow. I am guessing it has aboard the "Stuff" Potus would need for a visit. Like the beast, etc. And of course, (censored by me)...

By Michael Novean (Insomniac) on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 - 02:37 pm: Edit

According to news reports, the C17 had a ROCC (Roll-On Conference Capsule) as payload

https://www.twz.com/air/usaf-c-17-makes-extremely-rare-visit-to-moscow

By Jeff Anderson (Jga) on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 - 05:23 pm: Edit

How many of those half-million men will try to flee the country, ask for asylum in Poland, will the Poles honor those requests, and how will Putin respond to that?

I'm getting big-time nervous about all that...

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Wednesday, August 26, 2026 - 06:44 pm: Edit

Most are escaping to Georgia, Armenian, or the Stan’s.

By Mike Grafton (Mike_Grafton) on Thursday, August 27, 2026 - 11:31 am: Edit

IIRC, Poland has set up a fence & is returning all who attempt to enter from Byelorussia.

Given the season, they should just "go camping" into Finland or Norway...

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, August 27, 2026 - 01:35 pm: Edit

Procurement: Logistics Of Blood Banks
August 27, 2026: World War II was the first war for Americans where most of the casualties were from combat wounds and injuries rather than disease picked up while in the combat zone. World War II was medically revolutionary for two things. Antibiotics, like penicillin, and the quick availability of blood for badly wounded soldiers.
British doctors discovered antibiotics in the 1920s, but the United States could mass-produce these life-saving drugs. As for emergency blood supplies, Charles Drew, an African American MD, developed the techniques and practices that made it possible to get freeze-dried blood powder in sterile packets for civilian and military casualties. The powder was reconstituted with sterile water to make whole blood. This saved tens of thousands of lives during World War II and continues to do so in the 21st century. During and after the war, this powder was shipped long distances by ship, plane, and truck. Dr. Drew also organized nationwide blood collection and distribution networks, with the help of like-minded medical professionals.
Another 21st-century development was advances in emergency medicine, administered by civilian EMTs (Emergency Medical Technicians) or military combat medics, which have made huge strides. Now, new medical tech is coming in the form of band-aids or bandages for people with minor bleeding injuries like cuts or scrapes. Some people do not heal as quickly, and these minor injuries can take a long time to heal. The solution is the self-monitoring polymer band-aids or bandages. This smart bandage tech has completed animal testing and now faces up to a decade of human tests and development of larger bandages before it is generally available.
This smart bandage is worn for a week or two until the chronic bleeding is healed. The smart bandage consists of two parts. The most obvious part appears to be a disposable band-aid or bandage containing biosensors, electrodes, and hydrogel with medications, along with a device that delivers low-level electrical stimulation to speed healing. The second component is a flexible, reusable electronic patch that monitors the healing process by tracking temperature, pH, and other factors, allowing a doctor or medical technician to monitor healing. Each year, millions of people have slow-healing wounds, and the smart bandage is designed to speed healing.
The smart bandage builds on two decades of major advances in emergency and combat medicine. These new techs and procedures led to a reduction of combat deaths by more than half since 2003. This resulted from new treatments for wounds that previously had no battlefield treatment. That meant the victim would die before more extensive treatment could be applied. Chief among these were deep (abdominal or thigh) wounds where large arteries (like the abdominal aorta) were opened. When that happens, the victim bleeds to death in minutes.
There have been several new battlefield treatments for catastrophic injuries like this. The first appeared in 2013 as a belt placed on the abdomen and activated. A bladder inflates, which puts sufficient pressure on the abdominal aorta to stop the bleeding or reduce it enough to make it possible to get the casualty to a surgeon. The belt does not always work. This led, in 2014, to the introduction of another more thorough solution. This was XStat, a syringe-like device that injected nearly a hundred small cellulose sponges into deep wounds. The tiny sponges were infused with anti-bacterial and clotting chemicals that stop the most severe bleeding in 20 seconds or less. The latest version of XStat sponges also contains a material that can be detected by X-rays, allowing a surgeon to be sure all the tiny sponges are removed later.
While tourniquets have been around for thousands of years, these devices work only on limbs and not well enough when major arteries are extensively damaged. Preventing death from most other rapid blood loss situations was achieved with the development and widespread use of powders and granules that could quickly stop the bleeding. First (in 2004) came special bandages like the Chitosan Hemostatic Dressing (more commonly called HemCon). This freeze-dried substance caused rapid blood clotting and was incorporated into what otherwise looked like a typical battlefield bandage. This bandage greatly reduced bleeding, which had become the most common cause of death among wounded American troops. This device was a major breakthrough in bandage technology. Over 95 percent of the time, the HemCon bandages stopped bleeding, especially in areas where a tourniquet could not be applied. It did not work in extreme cases, especially when the abdominal aorta was involved. Medics followed HemCon with WoundStat powder to control bleeding that HemCon could not control. While medics and troops prefer the bandage-type device, there are situations where WoundStat (a fine granular substance) is a better solution (especially in the hands of a medic). Only the medics got packets (usually two) of WoundStat powder. That's because this is only needed for deep wounds and has a theoretical risk of causing fatal clots if it gets into the bloodstream.
WoundStat was one of many new medical tools for battlefield medicine that greatly increased the effectiveness of immediate medical care for troops, within minutes or seconds after they were hit. This effort consisted of three programs. First, they developed new medical tools and treatments that troops could be taught to use quickly and safely. This included stuff like HemCon. Then came the equipping of medics (about one for every 30 or so combat troops) with more powerful tools, so that troops were less likely to bleed to death or suffocate from certain types of wounds that are not fatal if treated quickly enough. Finally, the Combat Lifesaver program more than tripled the number of "medics" by putting selected soldiers through a 40-hour CLS (Combat Lifesaver) course in the most common medical procedures soldiers can perform to treat the most dangerous wounds they usually encounter. These CLS-trained soldiers were not medics, but they did make true emergency medical treatment more widely available in combat. In other words, CLS-qualified troops are sort of "medics lite," which is close enough if you are badly wounded and in need of some prompt medical treatment.
Over the last two centuries, major wars have produced significant improvements in medical care. This is what has happened since 2001, but at a much faster pace. For example, since September 11, 2001, over two million American troops went off to war and about two percent of them were killed or wounded. Only 12 percent of the 57,000 combat zone wounds were fatal, the lowest percentage in military history. This was largely due to major improvements in dealing with rapid blood loss from a major artery being severed and the increased speed with which complex medical care could be delivered to wounded troops. New medical technologies also made it possible to detect injuries (like brain trauma) that, in the past, were very difficult to detect and treat.
The Combat Lifesaver course teaches troops how to do things like insert breathing tubes and perform other emergency surgical procedures to restore breathing. The CLS troops have skills most likely to be needed in life-saving situations when a medic is not available. The additional emergency medical training and new emergency first aid gear (the "CLS bag") have saved hundreds of lives and reduced the severity of even more wounds. Enough troops have taken CLS training so that there is one for every 10-15 combat troops and one for every 20 or so support troops on convoy or security duty.
These developments also appealed to civilian emergency medical services, and many experienced combat medics left the military to work as EMTs, improving care for civilian accident victims. This was similar to what happened to the EMT field after the Vietnam War, when ambulance crews rapidly evolved from simply transporting accident victims with basic first aid to EMTs who could administer procedures previously handled only by doctors. This followed World War II, when wartime demands drove the mass production of newly developed antibiotics, sparking a revolution in surgical techniques.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, August 27, 2026 - 01:36 pm: Edit

Russia: Medical Mystery
August 27, 2026: Civilians throughout Russia are suddenly realizing that the war in Ukraine is not going well. That’s because Russia has suffered nearly 1.5 million casualties so far, including half a million dead. There are so many casualties that these soldiers are now being sent to hospitals all over the country. This is embarrassing because the government insists Russia is winning the war. In reality, Russia is suffering eight casualties for every Ukrainian one. Worse, the Ukrainians are increasing their use of ground combat drones armed with machine guns. There have been a growing number of incidents where Russian troops surrender to these drones. The drone operator then has his drones escort the prisoners back to where soldiers can take over.
The problems with Russian casualties sent to distant hospitals, some several thousand kilometers from Ukraine, are that some of these medical facilities are overwhelmed and local patients are not admitted unless they are critical, and elective procedures are delayed until the emergency situations die down. Meanwhile, there is a nationwide shortage of blood and medical supplies, as well as Feldsher, the traditional untrained medics the army has used for centuries. Many of the casualties are Feldsher, and a priority is given to healing lightly wounded medics so they can go back to work in Ukraine or in hospitals all over Russia full of wounded soldiers.
To complicate matters for the families of the wounded, Russia has not published casualty figures since mid-2022, to conceal from the public how badly Russian forces were doing in Ukraine. Russians can still get the casualty data via the internet, even though Putin has tried to restrict access. This has made it difficult because most of the Russian economy and government depend on internet access.
There are clear signs that Russia is losing the war in Ukraine. Of the two million casualties suffered by both sides so far, 70 percent of them were Russian. The ratio of Russian to Ukrainian casualties has changed over the last three years from 2-1 to the current 8-1. The Ukrainians have long made the most of being on the defensive. Ukraine has developed specific tactics for this, and Ukrainian soldiers are trained to be very effective at causing lots of Russian casualties. Until this year, Russia could mobilize enough new troops to replace losses. That is no longer the case, and in the last few months Russia has been able to replace only about 90 percent of its losses. This is getting worse. The deteriorating Russian situation also shows up in advance rates, which were 50, 70, and 90 meters per day during three recent battles. These are among the slowest advance rates in any conflict since the start of World War II.
The primary source of Russian losses has been Ukrainian drones. These drones come in an increasing number of types, and new models appear rapidly. Russia has been unable to compete. To make matters worse, Ukraine has developed an effective drone interceptor, further diluting Russian offensive efforts. Over the last year, Ukrainian long-range drones have intensified their attacks on military and economic targets in western Russia, including major cities like Moscow and St Petersburg. These attacks are bringing the war home to Russian civilians who have been told for years that Russian forces were winning.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, August 27, 2026 - 01:42 pm: Edit

Armor: New Russian T 72B3A tank
ugust 24, 2026: For over half a century, T72 tanks have formed the backbone of the Russian tank force. Earlier this year, a new version, the T-72B3A, entered service and has recently appeared in Ukraine. The T-72B3A builds on the T-72B3 upgrade package developed in the early 2010s, integrating modern fire controls, including thermal sights, as well as Relikt explosive reactive armor and a new 2A46M-5 smoothbore gun. The new tank has some lifesaving improvements, including an upgraded Arena-M APC/active protection system. Arena-M has been around for at least two years but has limitations in a drone environment. Arena-M uses a Doppler radar, and unless the Ukrainians are determined to get a particular tank with drones, it will require 20 or more drones to do so.
Although Russia gives a lot of publicity to its more modern tank designs, such as the T-14, T-90, and T-80BV, most of the new tanks the Russian army has received since 2000 have been refurbished and significantly upgraded T-72B3s. Before the Ukraine War, the Russian Army had about 3,000 tanks in service, and 65 percent of them were T-72B3s, which you hear little about. The new breakthrough design, the T-14, has fewer than 100 in service, and production cuts, which began in 2015, were recently announced, with only 10-20 units built per year. The T-14 is mostly about publicity. The T-90 has been produced in large quantities, but not for Russia. The T-90 was a 1980s project intended to incorporate T-80 features into numerous T-72 upgrades. Originally designated the T-72BU, Russia renamed it the T-90 when it began production in 1993. That helped make the tank an export success, with most (84 percent) of those produced exported. In fact, India and Algeria each have more T-90s in service than Russia. Worse, Russia has quietly put over a third of its newly built 550 T-90s into reserve. While the T-90 was loudly proclaimed the next big thing, the Russian army preferred the refurbished T-72B3. These proved more reliable, though that got little publicity. While all the upgrades (new engine, gun, fire control, and protection) made it nearly as expensive as the T-90, troops preferred it, and older officers quietly agreed it was a better tank than the new T-90/T-72BUs.
This apparently has something to do with the T-72BU's design (trying to merge T-80 elements into the T-72 design) and the decline in manufacturing quality in the Russian defense industry after the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991. Since the T-72B3 was introduced in 2013, it has been produced in far greater numbers than any other tank, and that continues. Especially telling was how T-90s began to be taken out of service (and put in reserve) as soon as enough T-72B3s became available. At the same time, the most popular Russian tank for export customers is the T-72B (a B3 with fewer upgrades), and these cost nearly two million each but can be delivered within a few months of signing the contract. The T-72B3 has been so popular among Russian troops that the government is giving it greater publicity in state-controlled mass media.
Russia still has over 3,000 late-model T-72s in reserve (storage) because these are so frequently reconditioned and upgraded for Russian use and export customers. It appears that all of these will eventually be returned to service once refurbished and upgraded. Production of the T-72 continues, but mainly under different names and often outside Russia.
The T-72B3 turned out to be nearly as expensive as the T-90, but early tests showed it was worth the cost. This was evident in early 2015, when the first T-72B3 tanks entered service in the Russian Army. While the T-72B is a 1980s model with modern fire control and additional armor, the T-72B3 is a more recent upgrade with more advanced, expensive equipment. This includes an improved fire control system and 21st-century communications equipment. The T-72B3 costs nearly twice as much as the T-72 B and is part of Russia's effort to modernize its armed forces. Most T-72s in service are pre-1991 models that are very inferior to the most modern American, European, and Chinese tanks.
The T-72 is a Soviet second-generation tank that entered production in 1971. At least 25,000 T-72 tanks were built, making it one of the most widely produced post–World War II tanks, second only to the T-54/55 family. The T-72 was widely exported and saw service in 40 countries and in numerous conflicts. Improved variants are still being built for export customers. The T-72 was the most common tank used by the Warsaw Pact from the 1970s to the Soviet Union's collapse. It was also exported to other countries, such as Finland, India, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and the former Yugoslavia, and was copied elsewhere and built both with and without licenses.
Poland and Czechoslovakia produced licensed versions of the T-72 for other East European countries. These tanks had better, more consistent manufacturing quality but had inferior armor compared to Russian-made models, lacking the resin-embedded ceramic layer inside the turret front and the glacis armor. The Polish-made T-72G tanks also had thinner armor compared to the Soviet Army standard of 410 mm for the turret. Before 1990, Soviet-made T-72 export versions were similarly downgraded for non-Warsaw Pact customers, mostly the Arab countries. Many parts and tools are not interchangeable among the Russian, Polish, and Czechoslovakian versions, causing logistical problems.
The T-72 shares many design features with earlier Soviet tanks. Some of these are viewed as deficiencies in a direct comparison with NATO tanks, but most reflect how these tanks were envisioned for employment, based on the Soviets' practical experiences in World War II. The T-72 is extremely light at 41 tons and much smaller than its Western counterparts. Some roads and bridges in former Warsaw Pact countries were designed so T-72s could use them easily, while NATO tanks could not pass at all or could do so only at very low speed. Yet this lighter weight is a feature for many less affluent users, such as those in Nicaragua.
The basic T-72 was relatively underpowered, with a 780-hp supercharged version of the 500-hp V-12 diesel engine block originally designed for the World War II-era T-34. The 0.58 m, 23-inch-wide tracks run on large-diameter road wheels, which make the T-72 and its descendants easy to identify. The T-64/80 family has relatively small road wheels. One reason the T-72B3 is so popular is its very reliable, capable 1,130-hp engine, which old-timers have always wished the original T-72 had.
The T-72 has a comprehensive NBC nuclear, biological, and chemical protection system. The inside of both the hull and the turret is lined with a synthetic fabric made of a boron compound, meant to reduce penetrating radiation from neutron-bomb explosions. The crew receives clean air through an extensive air-filtration system. A slight overpressure prevents contamination from entering through bearings and joints. An autoloader for the main gun allows more efficient forced smoke removal than traditional manually loaded tank guns, so NBC isolation of the fighting compartment can, in theory, be maintained indefinitely. Exported T-72s lack the anti-radiation lining, and most users don’t use or maintain the NBC protection system.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, U.S. and German analysts examined Soviet-made T-72 tanks equipped with ERA (explosive reactive armor) blocks mounted on the turret and front. It was found that this ERA rendered most modern American and German tank projectiles ineffective. This led to the development of more modern Western tank ammunition, such as the M829A2 and M829A3. Russian tank designers responded with newer types of reactive and composite armor. ERA is still a popular and relatively inexpensive upgrade for exported T-72s.
The T-72B3 addressed most of the complaints about earlier upgrades, often because the Russians had the opportunity to buy Western armor and fire-control equipment, at least until the 2014 sanctions were imposed. Many export customers preferred to equip their T-72s with this gear, as did India with their T-90s. Russian manufacturers managed to match a lot of the foreign equipment, or at least earlier models of it. Thus, the T-72B3 has thermal sights that enable the gunner to spot other tanks at night up to 8 kilometers away and positively identify them at about a third of that distance. The T-72B3 incorporates many world-class protective features, not just in defense against enemy armor-piercing rounds but also landmines and roadside bombs. The T-72B3 has a modern fighting compartment with flat-screen displays, some of them simply showing what is in the vicinity of the tank. In addition to modern communications, the T-72B3 has electronic sensors and some electronic jamming capability. But most importantly, the T-72B3 is reliable and, as the saying goes, “it just works.” That feature hasn’t been common with Russian tanks since World War II, when the T-34 was a breakthrough design that was technically inferior to Western, especially German, models, but it just worked.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, August 27, 2026 - 01:43 pm: Edit

Support: Military Wargaming Update
August 25, 2026: Since the 1970s, the American military, and the Army in particular, have been developing generations of wargames, combat simulations, and theater-wide systems that enable commanders to experiment with different tactics, strategies, and doctrines.
In the 21st century, military wargaming uses more automation, usually called AI or Artificial Intelligence. Interfaces are easier to use, and computing power is much cheaper and more powerful. Running What If? simulations takes seconds, and users get a short, succinct summary of the wargame results.
Plenty of information explains how a wargame works and how to design one. A primary source is The Complete Wargames Handbook, available online. One chapter covers Designing Manual Games, which is often done before creating a computerized version. Like modern games, these manual games are also available to play on a PC or laptop. You can also play on your phone if you can get used to the much smaller viewing area.
How to Do It Yourself: Game design is a lot like writing a book, term paper, or other nonfiction. In many respects it's actually easier. But in some respects, it's definitely different. In this section, I will explain the differences.
The main difference is the structure of the work. A nonfiction writing assignment is basically an act of communication. The writer collects, reorganizes, and presents data in a form that the reader can easily use. I call this type of communication linear. That is, we start at the beginning and proceed word by word, sentence by sentence, paragraph by paragraph, page by page along the line laid down by the author. A game, on the other hand, is nonlinear. To be sure, it starts at a beginning, but from there on it is primarily an exercise in choices and options, with different paths that the reader or gamer may follow. Designing a game is working with a much more structured piece of work than is writing nonfiction. For one thing, a game is much more graphic than a literary work. A game is much more precise. Even on a "literary" level, it is mainly a set of instructions. But minor mistakes or ambiguous passages that might not seriously harm a nonfiction work can cause grave problems in a game.
There are many rules to designing games. Above all, two game design rules control all others. First, and most important, is:
Keep it Simple.
The second rule is nearly as important but a bit more complex to use. The second rule is:
Plagiarize.
Plagiarism is a dramatic way of saying, "use available techniques." If you try to plow too much new ground, you're not going to get very far, and you will have an extremely difficult time in keeping your game sufficiently simple to be manageable.
Keeping a game design project simple is very difficult. Once you get going, you'll be tempted to add this and add that. A game design is a very dynamic activity. It soon acquires a life of its own, asking questions and offering parts of the answer. The game designer is sorely tempted to go deeper and deeper. Without some years of experience and a high degree of professional discipline, it is extremely difficult to do a simple game that is not a truly incomprehensible one. For a game is, in addition to being a source of information, also a form of communication. If the information cannot be communicated, the game does not work. You've got to keep it simple.
Using available techniques gives you a wide range of proven procedures for designing a game that gives you the most bang for the buck. I assume you only have limited time for designing a game, and I presume you would prefer to spend less of your time banging your head against a wall and more time refining a functioning game.
There are no iron-clad guaranteed ("follow these rules and you cannot fail") guidelines for designing a game. I do have, however, 10 steps which are generally followed in designing games successfully. The number of steps has actually changed over the many years that I have been designing games. But in essence, these 10 steps, albeit rearranged and occasionally renamed, have remained remarkably consistent.
1. The first, and most important step, is concept development. At the start, you must decide what you want to do.
2. Next comes research. You will have done a little of this during the concept development stage. At this point, you must fill in as many of the gaps in your knowledge as you can.
3. This is what I have dubbed integration. This is where you take all of the research material and your knowledge of game mechanics and integrate it into a prototype game.
4. Now you flesh out this prototype, coming up, in effect, with something that looks remarkably close to the finished game. In some cases, if you're lucky or the phases of the moon happen to be just right, your prototype will be exactly like your finished game.
5. Prepare a first draft of your rules. Many people skip this step, preferring to keep the rules in their heads a little longer. They usually come to regret this.
6. This is one of the more difficult steps: game development. This means playtesting, changing the game, rewriting the rules, and taking a lot of abuse from people who would rather play than design and don't appreciate how hard it is to get anything done.
7. I call this step blind testing (computer game designers call it beta testing). This is where you take your physical prototype and written rules and send them to somebody who can play the game without you. This is often very revealing.
8. Editing. This step occurs when all of your blind-testing results have come back and have been integrated into the manuscript. Somebody else should now take over and edit the manuscript. This also means playing the game with all your final corrections and changes and generally trying to smoke out as many gremlins as possible.
9. Production. If you are going to publish the game, this is the production step. This is where many things can go wrong. Rules have to be typeset, and things can get scrambled about. You have to prepare the artwork from your prototype, and things can change again. There is much potential danger in this phase of game design.
10. Feedback. This step is also critical if you plan to design more games. This is the feedback step, where you must systematically collect player feedback to see what you did right and what you did wrong.
These steps are used to publish historical games. Most people apply their game design skills to modifying existing games or designing games that will most likely never be published. For these unpublished games (I deliberately refrain from calling them amateur because I am consistently impressed by the quality of unpublished games compared to many that are published), the designer's effort should focus on producing a game the designer can easily and effectively use. This means all 10 steps are used, although blind testing, editing, and production tend to be folded back into development and prototype construction. But it would not be that difficult for a gamer to conduct a blind test, have another player edit it, and then go through some simple production procedures, which would let the gamer give out copies of his game without the expense of actually publishing it. I will explain these techniques further on.
There is a lot more to the 10 game-designing steps than I have briefly explained. The tricks of the trade make these steps work. The tricks uncovered in the last thirty years could fill a few books. In order to get across to you a good number of these tricks in a format that you can use, I will describe the actual design and development of a game that was prepared expressly for this book. Although it's a rather small game, it includes the same elements as much larger games and requires the designer to follow the same steps, encounter the same problems, and solve them.


FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, August 27, 2026 - 01:43 pm: Edit

Iran: Fixing Iran Is Futile
August 24, 2026: The progress of this year’s Iran war has proven perplexing for America and its Persian Gulf allies. Weeks of bombing Iran have had no effect on the Iranian government or its ability to continue firing missiles and drones at regional targets. In other countries, this tends to be because the population is either inspired to respond to the attackers or tacitly supports its government in defending the nation rather than demonstrating against it. Neither of those factors is present in Iran, where 80-90% of the population hate the corrupt mullah regime and its security forces to the extent that most Iranians have ceased being Islamic. Most likely the reason for the regime’s resilience is because about 1% of the total population are murderous regime protection forces who have killed scores of thousands of rebellious Iranian civilians, most recently about 30,000 in January 2026.
Iran is also proving that it had more missiles available than the Americans suspected. This occurred despite the Israeli network of operatives inside Iran. Apparently, this force was told to stand down until the bombardment ended, while still trying to obtain information on current missile and drone supplies. These weapons are well concealed and guarded. American satellite and drone surveillance has apparently failed at gathering such information. Plus, Iran has received significant stocks of missiles, drones, and rocket fuel precursor chemicals since the war started.
The Iranians are clever in other ways and have based their current tactics on those that worked during 2024 and 2025 confrontations. The Iranian military has always prepared for prolonged conflicts, and what is happening now is another example of that.
Iran does not try to defeat American forces but is continually working to keep their resistance going. That’s an ancient strategy; the American hero of the 18th-century revolution, George Washington, beat the British by keeping the rebel forces intact and a constant threat. Eventually the British gave up because the war seemed endless and the expense was something Parliament would not tolerate.
Iran has made several critical errors. Not only has it relied on one resource for most of its exports, but it also has relied on only a few trade routes; Iran relies too much on the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, a blockade against the Strait of Hormuz, combined with cutting off some of the trade between Iran and its neighbors, has struck a devastating blow to Iran’s economy. This has caused the pay of its regime protection forces to go down – some units’ pay is already several months in arrears.
The current American strategy is to continue its blockade of Iranian ports and eventually attacks on land and Caspian Sea routes. If most of this traffic were blocked, Iran would have no income and no imports. A siege, rather than constant air strikes, will make Iran, or at least the Iranian people, more amenable to unconditional surrender. That’s the only form of surrender that works.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, August 27, 2026 - 01:43 pm: Edit

Russia: Russians Discuss Another Revolution
August 25, 2026: A growing number of Russian civilians are witnessing Ukrainian drone strikes in their vicinity. Major Russian cities are regularly being attacked, and for over a year Ukrainian drones have been destroying the fuel infrastructure to the point where Russians have an increasingly difficult time finding fuel for their vehicles. Commentators in Russian media dismiss the idea of another revolution, even as many Russians view another 1917 as a reasonable, if desperate, solution to their worsening situation. Contemporary Russia suffers high inflation, growing shortages and unemployment.
The most recent Russian Revolution was in 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed into 14 new nations, including Russia and Ukraine. The invasion of Ukraine was Russian leader Vladimir Putin's initial effort to reassemble the Soviet Union. The Ukrainians resisted to the point that a growing number of Russians question the wisdom of restoring the Soviet Union. The Special Operation, as Putin describes the war, has killed over half a million Russians and left three times as many with disabilities, visible scars, or bad memories of their time in Ukraine.
The Russian government outlaws public criticism of the war, and broadcast commentators and news readers must comply or lose their jobs. Russian media is full of people saying what people don’t want to hear: that the war will continue until it is won. The Ukrainians are not cooperating; instead, they are doing more of their fighting using air, land, and naval drones. The Ukrainians minimize their own casualties, and currently for every Ukrainian killed or wounded, there are eight Russians. Ukraine is working to make this ten-to-one or more.
Meanwhile, Russia is concentrating on preparing the younger generation for this forever war. In northwestern Russia, a Murmansk lyceum/high school hired former disabled soldiers who had served in Ukraine. The soldiers taught students about the many types of drones and how to care for and operate them. The students also watched videos and were directed to TV shows that showed more footage of the war in Ukraine. A state-controlled TV channel regularly shows videos about the war in Ukraine. Naturally, these videos ignore the enormous casualties Russian forces have taken. Instead, the videos focus on the practical aspects of how the war is fought. There are an increasing number of videos on drone warfare.
Most civilians know what really goes on in Ukraine. Wounded or disabled Ukraine war veterans are constantly returning home and telling their friends and neighbors about the war. The high school students hear about this. While some are discouraged about eventually going to Ukraine, others are willing to accept the challenge, and large signing bonuses are being offered. Large sums, over $20,000 per new soldier, used to be paid. But the state has run out of money, and current high school students will have to decide if much lower signing bonuses are worth the risks. Vladimir Putin says Russia will keep fighting until Ukraine is conquered. Only time will tell how that will work out.
Russia has established thirteen VOIN/Fighter centers. VOIN is used to expose teenagers to military life by giving them military uniforms, regular military orientation, and some training to prepare them for joining the military via conscription or volunteering. The VOIN training for teenagers also includes a lot of education and indoctrination about the importance of patriotism and preparing to defend Russia. This is one of the reasons Russia never refers to its invasion of Ukraine as an invasion. According to the government, the fighting in Ukraine is a Russian internal matter to suppress separatist activity by some people in southern Russia who call themselves Ukrainians and are fighting to create an independent country called Ukraine.
Since 2022, VOIN centers also trained Russian army reservists headed for Ukraine. Recently, the number of reservists called up has overwhelmed the VOIN system, and reservists are sent to Ukraine without any preparation. Losses are higher for these reservists.
The Russian government complains that the Ukrainians, which it calls separatists, have been a problem for a long time but that now they have massive military support from NATO countries. This fits the government claim that the NATO defensive alliance against Russian aggression is a Western conspiracy to surround and subjugate Russia. For centuries, Ukrainians have been fighting Russian efforts to turn them into Russians. When the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991, Ukraine finally became independent. Russia wants Ukraine back as part of Russia.
Russia also revealed a list of several former parts of the ex-Soviet Union, now neighboring countries, that it wants to make part of Russia. Some of those neighbors are NATO members. Ukraine wants to join NATO, and NATO agrees, but only after the Russian invaders have been expelled. So far, the Ukrainian resistance has killed or disabled over a million Russian soldiers and destroyed most modern Russian tanks. In response, Russia took thousands of 1960s-era T-62 tanks out of storage and sent them to Ukraine to provide more targets for Ukrainian tanks and anti-tank weapons. A growing number of the Ukrainian tanks are Western models, which have demonstrated a clear superiority over any Russian tank they encounter.
Defeats and losses in Ukraine are downplayed by Russian media. The government explains, but cannot prove, that the fighting is taking longer because of NATO support; this is supposed to include NATO troops doing much of the fighting. No captured NATO soldiers have been revealed because there aren’t any.
Many Russians, including the teenagers and especially Russians who have served in Ukraine, are dubious about their government’s claims about a purported NATO plot to conquer Russia. Some older Russians remember why the Soviet Union fell apart. It wasn’t because of NATO aggression; it was because most citizens of the Soviet Union saw that the Soviet Union was a failed dictatorship that was not helping the people of Russia. That resulted in the collapse of the Soviet Union, something the Soviets could not suppress with persuasion, threats, or the use of armed force. The people had made up their minds, and the security forces refused to fight Russians over this. The Soviet Union lost half its population to newly formed nations, including Ukraine, one of the Union's most prosperous regions, and few Ukrainians wanted to remain under Russian domination. This is why a lot of the VOIN training for teenagers is ideological, stressing the importance of preserving Mother Russia above all else.
Another function of VOIN is to train army reservists in combat techniques before they are activated. Most of these reservists will be called up to fight in Ukraine, and VOIN concentrates on that because the VOIN training is likely all that they’ll ever get. Most of these men know what is going on in Ukraine and are not enthusiastic about going there and dying. For Russian troops in Ukraine, morale has been low for some time, and that is visible in the reluctance for Russian attacks to move forward with much determination. Even in the defense, Russian troops are more interested in retreating to Russia than in halting the growing number of Ukrainian attacks. There have been growing incidences of Russian troops deliberately seeking an opportunity to surrender to the Ukrainians. Since the invasion began in early 2022, Ukraine has lost about a third as many troops as Russia. In the last year, Ukraine has been losing proportionately less than before because Ukrainian morale and combat ability have improved, and the Russians have suffered because of that.
VOIN centers matter because, historically, newly conscripted Russians received nothing like the months of basic and advanced training Western recruits received. The results were more effective Western soldiers, and Russian leaders agree Russia should provide the same training and increase the proportion of volunteer, or contract, veterans in the military, especially the army. It was too expensive, as was extensive recruit training. Typically, new recruits get a week or so of orientation, such as how to wear the uniform, recognize different ranks, and respond to them. The recruits are quickly sent off to a unit, where they are supposed to receive “on the job” training but rarely do. Traditionally, this was even done in wartime when civilians suddenly in uniform had to cope and survive as best they could.
In general, VOIN is an effort to address the lack of training new recruits receive, and the lack of training reservists receive, many of whom are veterans of active service. Russia wants and needs to replace their poorly trained and easily killed troops with ones that have had some training to avoid or reduce that problem, with some training these troops had never received before. Whether they actually do so depends on traditional Russian corruption and official Potemkin Village games run by superior officers.
The VOIN training for teenagers is an enhanced version of the familiarization training many, but not all, high school boys have received. Russia wants to make VOIN available everywhere without making it too expensive to maintain everywhere. That will take a considerable effort, which Russia probably can’t afford.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, August 27, 2026 - 01:48 pm: Edit

Intelligence: Illegals Electronic Surveillance
August 23, 2026: The current American government established DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency in early 2025 and dissolved it last month. The goal was to upgrade computer systems and network technology. This would increase the national government’s productivity. Identifying the problems was easy; they had done that many times before. The problem was enacting the reforms. Organizations and their employees targeted for reassignment or dismissal resisted. While public opinion favored the reforms, those losing their jobs went to court. The court proceedings slowed things down but largely failed to stop DOGE
What really mattered was DOGE gaining access to all the entitlement, welfare, and U.S. Treasury disbursement databases of the U.S. federal government, which has allowed total information awareness of the vast majority of every illegal alien's electronic activity.
The American government has been trying to create legal precedents so it can now act on that information before hostile federal employees disrupt the DOGE efforts by cutting off access to government funds and requiring them to report to local immigration offices on pain of debanking if they don't. The government knows which bank accounts are used by illegal aliens because most federal benefits are sent electronically.
The economic impact of millions of illegal aliens suddenly leaving could be a disaster for the Real Estate industry in some states and cities. Rental properties and large numbers of government-subsidized Section 8 housing, losing their paying tenants within a month or so, are going to cause a massive deflation in property values and rents, particularly in Democratic Party-governed urban areas with lots of illegal aliens. This means the 2028 elections and 2030 census will create a crisis for the Democratic Party: millions, perhaps ten million or more illegal aliens, will either go back to their country of origin or hide from census officials.
What these illegals will not be receiving are any more government benefits. This will lead to even more illegals leaving. That process can be measured by how much the U.S. unemployment rate declines as legal U.S. residents can now get the jobs the illegals formerly did for less money.
Efforts to get court approval for illegals to stay and collect benefits failed. The full Fifth Circuit considered the issue and issued an extraordinary precedential order making it clear that illegal aliens do not have a constitutional right to move about freely in America during their removal proceedings.
The illegals are an everyday problem for Americans living near the Mexican border. In one case, ranchers along that border have used ground radar to detect illegal migrants passing through their land. When illegals were detected and confirmed by other sensors (day/night cameras and ground sensors), a call was made to the Border Patrol, which came and made the arrests.
The ranchers were using a British Blighter B202 Radar. This 16 kg device has no moving parts and can run unattended for 12 hours on a single battery. The radar can detect people walking up to 4 kilometers away (and large vehicles up to 8 kilometers away). You can connect the radar to the internet and monitor it from anywhere. The radar software plots the speed and path of anything it detects. The radar does a 78-degree horizontal scan (electronically, not mechanically), and a 20-degree vertical scan. The software can transmit updates every five or one second. It can track up to 700 separate contacts at once.
Police departments and commando units use the Blighter B202 for surveillance. For commandos, the Blighter B202's best feature is its lightweight design (the lightest ground radar available). California ranchers use radar to discourage people smugglers from using their property and to reduce frequent property damage and the risk of other crimes.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, August 27, 2026 - 01:49 pm: Edit

Support: Autonomous Drones
August 22, 2026: The American military considers a Class 5 drone to weigh at least 600 kg and operate at up to 5,500 meters. Current Group 5 drones include the MQ-9 Reaper, RQ-4 Global Hawk, and MQ-4 Triton. Several new Class 5 aircraft are in development, and one of the most interesting is Thunder, expected to make its first flight by 2027 and enter service in the early 2030s.
This is a drone version of the AH-64 gunship, but smaller and lighter. It uses OSTR/Optimum-Speed Tiltrotors that vary rotor RPM to maintain efficiency across different flight conditions while reducing power demand and fuel use during operations, and it is silenced to make it more difficult to detect near the ground. Thunder is being built with commercial and military models in mind. In combat, an AH-64 crew will control several Thunder drones. A few Thunders and an AH-64 will make a very powerful combination.
Thunder is a twin-tilt rotor aircraft. The V-22 was the first American tilt-rotor military aircraft. Users liked the unique hybrid, but early models proved very expensive to operate. Eventually, they addressed all the problems. Thunder can carry ten Hellfire missiles, pods for dozens of guided 127mm rockets, and several smaller 12.3 kg reconnaissance and surveillance drones that can remain airborne for up to four hours. Drone interceptors can also be carried. Earlier this year, Anduril developed a new drone weapon for the Apache attack helicopter in only six months. This weapon was tested when an AH-64 launched this drone for the first time. It flew 457 kilometers and had an impact comparable to that of a Hellfire missile. The 10-ton AH-64E carries a pilot and a weapons officer, as well as up to 16 Hellfire missiles plus the 30mm automatic cannon. Sorties average three hours. The AH-64 can operate at night and has a top speed of 260 kilometers an hour.
Other types of autonomous weapons and systems are already available. European defense manufacturer Thales has an autonomous mine-clearing system. The French Navy will be the first to use it and, if it works, other NATO nations will likely adopt it. Test and evaluation models are currently used, and production models are expected by 2028.The big advantage of the new Thales system is that it uses unmanned drones using sonar to find bottom mines. These are the most common mines currently used. Older floating mines could be spotted easily and destroyed using drone-delivered explosive charges or autocannon fire by a manned ship. It’s safer to let the drones do all the work, but if you are in a hurry, autocannon fire will do the job.
The new Thales system uses several different types of sonar to detect mines, including lidar. The minesweeper drones are five meters long, half a meter in diameter, and weigh half a ton. The drones can operate at depths up to 300 meters and run for up to ten hours before recharging.
Taiwan successfully conducted sea trials for six SeaShark 680 naval drones. These drones, including the larger SeaShark 800, carry payloads that include an autonomous guidance system, navigational sensors, explosives, and an AI-enhanced navigation and communications system that enables groups of SeaSharks to form and maintain a swarm formation despite enemy electronic jamming. Taiwan is buying 1,350 SeaSharks at $750,000 each. The larger SeaShark 800 will carry a ton of explosives.


Procurement: Ukrainian Drone Industry
August 22, 2026: The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been going on for 12 years so far. Currently, Ukraine is winning the war while also creating a thriving military drone industry, with more than 200 manufacturers. Among the drone models being built for the Ukrainian military are the Bird, priced at $69,200 each. Swan X50, $24,200; BPA Gara Esse U, $548,000; Khaba Bomber, 300 km, $9,200; and dozens of other models, including the ubiquitous quadcopter battlefield drones, that account for 80 percent of Russian casualties. In some battles, Russian soldiers trying to maneuver under a swarm of drones were wounded within 30 minutes. The surviving Russians crawled away and sought whatever cover they could until Russian drones arrived to disrupt the Ukrainian attacks.
Current sales of these enterprises exceed a billion dollars annually and are increasing rapidly. Ukraine is the world's foremost drone designer, innovator, and manufacturer. China has supplied many drone components after years of restricting exports to Ukraine. Other suppliers have emerged, and China now competes with these Western suppliers to maintain its share of the Ukrainian market. China is still supplying Russia, but is still advising Russia to end the war if they want to halt the damage to its economy.
Ukraine's GDP is $138 billion, compared with Russia's $2.6 trillion. While Russia's GDP is larger, as it has been since Russia and Ukraine emerged from the wreckage of the Soviet Union, Ukraine is in a much better position for growth. Ukraine is using more ground drones, and that has reduced Ukrainian casualties to the point that for every Ukrainian soldier killed, eight Russians die. And then there is the growing use of long-range drones to damage the Russian economy. Oil storage facilities, refineries, military manufacturing operations and much else are targets. This includes a growing number of Wildberries warehouses. This is the Russian version of Amazon, with interesting military uses mostly tied to corruption, and Wildberries losses bring the war home to millions of Russian civilian consumers. Civilians in several major Russian cities are also witnessing Ukrainian air strikes on nearby military facilities. Russians ask, if we are winning the war, how is all this happening?
The corrupt military uses many variations of theft and the sale of military equipment, notably the ancient supply-sergeant thefts of military uniforms, equipment, and personal weapons supposedly issued to new recruits. They used to offer those only to individual recruits or their families willing to pay, and to republics or local governments willing to pay and provide them to recruits. Then Wildberries appeared as an ideal intermediary for such transactions. Apparently higher-value items are sold there as well.
Russia has suffered the greatest losses in personnel and equipment; it cannot win in any real sense and is scrambling to use remaining Russian resources to make it appear Russia is still in the war. The crippled Russian economy, along with rising unemployment and prices, has led more Russians to talk about another 1917. That ended centuries of Russian Czarist rule, which ended during a civil war that the Communists won. The Soviet Union lasted until 1991, when it collapsed after going bankrupt and split into 14 republics, including the Russian Federation and Ukraine. Russian leader Vladimir Putin thought he could restore the Soviet Union, and his first conquest would be Ukraine.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Thursday, August 27, 2026 - 01:50 pm: Edit

Russia: Continuing Ukraine's Strategic Air Campaign Against Russia
August 21, 2026: Since 2023, Ukrainian long-range drones have been carrying out attacks deep inside Russia. The initial attacks damaged or destroyed over 30 oil storage sites and refineries. Subsequent attacks damaged or destroyed two electrical power substations and a full-cycle metallurgical plant, Russia's largest, capable of producing high-quality metal for automotive and defense manufacturing. This attack cut off vital supplies to three plants that manufactured automobiles and trucks.
So far this year, Ukrainian drones have hit over a million targets. Over 90 percent of Ukrainian attacks on the Russian military are carried out using drones. That includes hundreds of drone strikes deep inside Russia. Targets include military, economic, and infrastructure sites. These strikes often involve explosions near major cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as near military facilities on Kronstadt Island. These targets were hit multiple times.
Russian leaders are dismayed at how effective the Ukrainians have been at destroying valuable Russian economic assets with long-range drone attacks. Not only do most of the Ukrainian drones manage to evade Russian air defense systems, but the attacks on petroleum storage sites usually result in spectacular, difficult-to-extinguish, and long-lasting fires. These fires are visible to many Russian civilians who no longer accept the government explanation that the fires were the result of accidents. Sometimes Russian oil storage sites are near factories that use the fuel in their operations. When factories go up in flames, and oil supplies are cut off, many Russians lose their jobs. The damage is even more widespread because the large oil losses have caused shortages for Russian consumers.
It got worse when Russian civilians found long waits at petrol stations, where you had to wait hours, or even days, to get refueled. Some station personnel demanded bribes to fill your tank. It was worse near the Ukrainian border, where drones were attacking bridges, barge canals and tunnels in an effort to block or disrupt efforts to supply Russian forces in Ukraine. Soldiers were phoning home to complain that they were often without food, water or ammunition because of what their officers described as transportation problems. Many Russian soldiers knew what was really happening as they tried to drive any kind of vehicle anywhere within 20 to 30 kilometers of the front line. Ukrainian drones seemed to be hunting for targets around the clock. While Russian drones sought the source of these attacks, they increasingly ran into Ukrainian drone interceptors. Behind this was the fact that Ukraine was producing millions more drones than Russia and many new drone types.
The drone offensive has also hit key targets in the Crimean Peninsula. In addition to road traffic, the drones are going after military targets while allowing fleeing civilians to drive back to Russia. Radars, air defense systems, electronic warfare equipment, ports, shipyards, barracks, munitions storage sites, airbases, and anything else the Russian military could use were being systematically destroyed. Ukrainian guerrillas operating in Crimea give detailed reports of the damage, from close personal inspection. The guerrillas are also preparing to support a Ukrainian ground invasion of Crimea and a campaign to make Crimea Ukrainian again after twelve years of Russian occupation. Other Russian-occupied portions in eastern Ukraine are also threatened, and some pro-Russian militia groups are negotiating to switch sides and escape post-war prosecution.
Russian leaders are distracted by economic and political problems at home, including the growing Russian dependence on Chinese economic and military support and the problems caused by the current Iran War. China gets most of its oil from Iran, and currently those shipments are blocked by the American Navy. Iran, China, and North Korea were the three major sources of military support, and all three are currently busy solving their own problems.
The Ukrainian attacks have significantly reduced oil production and refining in Russia. As a result, Russia banned oil exports until internal oil supplies returned to normal levels. Civilians complain about the lack of air defenses inside Russia. Before the war, air defense systems existed around major cities and key industrial targets. After the invasion, Russian forces encountered growing problems inside Ukraine and needed defenses against growing Ukrainian missile attacks. That meant Russia gradually withdrew S-300 and shorter-range air defense systems from its interior. The Ukrainians took advantage of this with the long-range drones they built and could use without NATO restrictions on targets deep inside Russia.
This means considerable Russian resources are now devoted to repairing, restoring, and maintaining petroleum storage and refining operations inside Russia. Less and less fuel is available for internal use and export. The Ukrainian attacks continue, much to the embarrassment of the Russian government and its claims of imminent victory in Ukraine.
It got worse when Russian civilians found long waits at petrol stations, where you had to wait hours, or even days, to get refueled. Some station personnel demanded bribes to fill your tank. It was worse near the Ukrainian border, where drones were attacking bridges, barge canals and tunnels in an effort to block or disrupt efforts to supply Russian forces in Ukraine. Soldiers were phoning home to complain that they were often without food, water or ammunition because of what their officers described as transportation problems. Many Russian soldiers knew what was really happening as they tried to drive any kind of vehicle anywhere within 20 to 30 kilometers of the front line. Ukrainian drones seemed to be hunting for targets around the clock. While Russian drones sought the source of these attacks, they increasingly ran into Ukrainian drone interceptors. Behind this was the fact that Ukraine was producing millions more drones than Russia and many new drone types.

FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Sunday, August 30, 2026 - 11:40 pm: Edit

Russia tripled its attacks on grain carrier ships this year, shutting off most of Ukraine’s grain exports. Ukraine offered to stop attacks on Russian ships carrying grain and oil in exchange for Russia stopping attacks on ships exporting Ukrainian wheat. Russia said no, it was winning that part of the war.

Russia is now exporting North Korean factory workers to replace Russian factory workers who joined the Army.

Russia is struggling to pay the money promised to the families of soldiers killed and is reporting dead soldiers as missing to avoid payments.

Ukraine is rapidly ramping up to producing one million drones a month most of them short-range types which are incredibly cheap. Ukraine wants funding to push this to 20 million drones a year.

The EU is loaning Ukraine $105 million over the next two years.

Both sides are using older tanks like Leopard 1 and T55 as self propelled howitzers. The mass tank attacks expected by Russian and NATO doctrine have been abandoned. Both sides are using single tanks as infantry support to knock out bunkers and key weapon positions.

Drones are now causing 65% of casualties.

The campaign against Wildberries are intended to convince Russian oligarchs to stop or remove Putin.

THE MILITARY SHOW

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 31, 2026 - 12:54 pm: Edit

Italy’s new aid package include four batteries of SAMP/T NextGen air defense launcher with Aster30 missiles, said to be equal to Patriot. They are also providing seven long range radar stations. This is funded by that big EU loan. The first missiles will arrive in October.
Ukraine government sources

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 31, 2026 - 03:14 pm: Edit

France has agreed to let Ukraine build Aster30 but needs Italy to sign off. Italy probably will.

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 31, 2026 - 03:15 pm: Edit

Procurement: Secret German Drone Factory
August 31, 2026: Germany, like most other major military powers, watched with great interest as Ukraine invented modern drone warfare in order to defeat Russian invaders. Ukraine quickly turned to NATO nations for assistance and received it. So far, 57 percent of the military aid Ukraine has received has come from European nations, with the rest from America. This has turned Europe into a major drone designer and manufacturer. One such German firm, Helsing, is currently producing HF-1 and HX-2 drones. The latter weighs 12 kg. Over 10,000 of these drones have already been delivered to Ukraine, and more are on the way. Helsing is also developing a larger jet-powered drone for reconnaissance, surveillance, or attack by launching smaller drones at distant targets.
The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine was a wake-up call for Germany. The German military, known as the Bundeswehr, was upgraded and expanded. Within two years, Germany had, for the first time, reached the NATO goal of two percent of GDP spent on defense. That’s more than $75 billion. This pays for an army brigade to be created and stationed in Lithuania, which borders Russia. The Bundeswehr is buying the Israeli Arrow air defense system to shoot down any Russian missiles aimed at Germany. Another air defense system deals with drones and aircraft.
At sea, the naval branch of the Bundeswehr sent a frigate to help deal with the situation in the Red Sea. The Houthi rebels in Yemen were trying to halt shipping moving north to the Suez Canal or an Israeli port in southern Sinai. For the first time since World War II, a German warship opened fire on an armed enemy. This was part of a multinational effort to suppress the Houthi threat. All that firepower worked, as the Houthis declared a ceasefire because they had run out of missiles, men, and militancy.
Unfortunately, the Bundeswehr has come up short on manpower. While the German government supports and pays for rearmament, many military-age German men are reluctant to commit. The Bundeswehr is short a quarter of the personnel it needs to operate all these weapons. One problem is that the Bundeswehr is supposed to have 203,000 active troops but can attract only 184,000, plus 35,000 reservists. This may change if Russian forces advance on Germany rather than just threaten to. The last time the Russians invaded in 1945, the Germans fought to the end.
These problems come at a time when the United States has withdrawn its security pledge to support European NATO nations in defending Europe. This contrasts sharply with the situation before 2022. The United States has had military bases overseas since World War II ended in 1945. These included over 300 installations dispersed throughout 49 countries in Europe and Japan. There were 225 in Germany, but between 1994 and 2014 most were shut down or transferred to the German Bundeswehr. This gradually changed, especially during the 1948-1991 Cold War. After 1991, American military facilities expanded overseas beyond Western Europe, and by 2024 there were some 800 bases in seventy countries.
By 2009, the dwindling U.S. forces in Europe were turning into museums, literally. Since World War II, American military units have casually preserved many historical artifacts. After spending over half a century in Europe, the U.S. Army force went from two corps and over six divisions with 18 combat brigades there during the Cold War, to the current four brigades. During the Cold War, over 300,000 U.S. troops were in Western Europe. That gradually shrank to about 40,000, and by 2025 there were 84,000 U.S. military personnel in Europe.
Worldwide, by 2021, the United States had 642 bases in 76 foreign nations and 159 in overseas American territories. American military personnel were in 170 nations worldwide. Some of these are military attachés at embassies. There are now 100,000 troops in Germany, Italy and Britain, with another 56,000 in Japan, 24,000 in South Korea, about a thousand in the nine Philippine bases and 15,000 in the Middle East. The U.S. has 123 bases in Germany, 113 in Japan, and 79 in South Korea. These include the modest Al Udeid airbase in Qatar and the massive Aviano military base complex in Italy, which hosts 49 American bases.
By service, the Army operates 220 bases in 29 overseas locations. The U.S. Marine Corps maintains 31 bases, the U.S. Navy 97 and the Air Force has 170 in nine foreign regions including Japan with 52,852 personnel, the Philippines with about a thousand, Germany 34,894, South Korea 23,732, Italy 12,319, Papua New Guinea a hundred or so, Britain 10,180, Bahrain 3,424, Spain 3,253, Poland a few dozen, Turkey 1,683, Kuwait a few hundred, Belgium 1,119, Australia about a hundred and Cuba 572. The Bundeswehr also has many temporary sites for special operations.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 31, 2026 - 03:15 pm: Edit

Iran: Ending the Iran War
August 31, 2026: The Iran war won’t end until the religious dictatorship and its IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) defenders are no longer operational. The Americans have been maintaining a blockade and putting diplomatic and military pressure on those who assist Iran in switching to land routes and the Caspian Sea to maintain some import activity. The blockade has reduced oil exports to less than 100,000 barrels a day. China is the primary customer for Iranian oil and is complaining openly to the United States and privately to Iran about this. China is being told the blockade will continue until Iran surrenders and that oil is available from other suppliers, including the United States. The Chinese had warned Iran that their aggressive foreign policy would eventually cause them a lot of harm, and now that has come to pass.
Inside Iran, the decades-old Israeli Mossad operatives network continues to function despite the arrests of hundreds of suspected foreign spies. The Iranian government has been trying to destroy this network for decades, without success. Most network members are Iranians who want to overthrow the religious dictatorship and bring back democracy and a functioning economy. The Ayatollahs, the IRGC, and their Basij militia are suffering because of the blockade. The Ayatollahs and their extended families are getting by, although only one Ayatollah is still alive. The IRGC and their families amount to over half a million people who expect to be well fed and otherwise taken care of. The Basij and their families amount to another half million entitled defenders of the dictatorship. Most Iranians resent these privileges but feel it would be counterproductive to fight back without access to weapons. The Americans have tried to arm some Iranian civilians, but the progress of this effort is kept secret.
The longer the blockade goes on, the more intense the pressure on the Ayatollahs and their armed minions gets. The Ayatollahs and their followers know that most Iranians want them gone, preferably dead and gone. Then there is the internal communications situation. Iranians have been under an internet blackout for nearly six months, with connectivity flatlining at less than two percent of normal levels. Restrictions on global network access continue to hinder online commerce, payment systems, and digitally dependent sectors of the economy.
In early January, after nearly two weeks of protests in Iran, government leaders enacted an internet blackout. The capital experienced extensive telephone and internet blackouts, with additional disruptions reported in Isfahan, Lordegan, Abadan, parts of Shiraz, and Kermanshah. CyberWar specialists reported that Iran's National Information Network was also fully disconnected, even internally within Iran.
Although the blackout had eased by 28 January, severe limitations remained. The Iranian Minister of Communications recognized that the shutdown was costing the economy $35.7 million a day. In April, another official estimated the direct cost of the shutdown at $30-40 million per day, and said adding indirect costs brings the true impact closer to $70-80 million per day. That means the total cost so far is over $13 billion.
That means online sales fell by 80 percent during the Internet shutdown, while the Tehran Stock Exchange overall index lost 450,000 points over a four-day period, and $1,677,000,000. In January 2026, the number of financial transactions in Iran had dropped by 185 million. This has only gotten worse since then.
The Internet blackout, which initially did not affect satellite internet connections like Starlink, has expanded into efforts to shut down Starlink, along with operations to seize satellite dishes to hinder Internet access. The Internet blackout has been described as an attempt by the government to cover up the 2026 Iran massacres.
As of 16 February, internet traffic in Iran had been reduced by half. At the same time, internet prices increased by 18 percent, bringing the total increase to 52 percent.
Following the 28 February Israeli American attacks on Iran, there was a renewed nationwide internet blackout in Iran, as Western internet experts reported internet connectivity in Iran dropping to 4 percent of the usual activity of ordinary levels. Iranians abroad said they could not communicate with relatives in Iran or connect to the Iranian intranet. In early March, internet traffic was calculated at about one percent of the usual connectivity.
By late August, the shutdown had been underway for six months, making it the longest national internet disruption recorded worldwide. Iranian technicians began restoring internet access to elite users, while most of the population remained without access. As of mid-April, the shutdown was projected to have cost the economy $1.8 billion. Internet connectivity remained extremely limited, restricting access to independent information sources. In the second week of April, Iranian internet experts admitted that there was no firm schedule for reinstating the internet.
Back in February, Iran emerged from its self-imposed internet blackout that was used as part of an effort to curb anti-government protests. That January 8-28 blackout was more extreme than any nation had ever endured. Mobile networks, text messaging services, and landlines were disabled, and Starlink was blocked. When a few domestic services became available, the government removed specific social features, such as comment sections on news sites and chat boxes in online marketplaces.
What remained operational, at least for a while, was the government-controlled and monitored national Intranet. This system was available only inside Iran, and users could not contact anyone outside Iran without government permission and monitoring. The current system prevents Iranians from using VPNs or special SIM cards for phones to communicate. Chat functions in nonpolitical apps like ridesharing or shopping platforms are also blocked. Any channel that allows two people to exchange text is seen as a threat. Then there was shortwave radio, which has limited range and
The Iranian government has its priorities, and information control is more important than a functioning economy, growing poverty, and the ability of Iranians to assemble to protest government policies or use the internet to discuss these problems with other Iranians or the outside world.
All this suppression came under attack at the end of February when the United States, Israel, and a few other nations declared war on Iran. If the current Iranian government collapses, the attacking coalition should promise to promptly restore internet and messaging services throughout the country. Many Iranians have discovered that the internet is something worth fighting and dying for. A post-war Iranian communications net could also benefit from adding technologies that are harder to whitelist or block, such as mesh networks and D2C/Direct 2 Consumer technologies that bypass the choke points of state-controlled ISPs/Internet Service Providers.
FYEO

By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 31, 2026 - 03:16 pm: Edit

Winning: Ukrainian Global War
August 30, 2026: In the last year, Ukrainian attacks on Russian interests have spread to the Mediterranean and Africa. Russia fears this will subsequently mean Russian shipping and military targets are at risk. In West Africa, Ukrainian drones and military advisors are making possible devastating local groups’ attacks on Russian forces seeking to keep the current Malian military government in power,
Ukrainian operatives have attacked Russian commercial shipping in the Mediterranean several times. This is in addition to naval and aerial drone attacks in the Black Sea, which have paralyzed Russian naval operations in the Black Sea while Ukrainian drones continue to attack Russian ports and naval bases in the Black Sea and its northeastern extension, the Sea of Azov.
The Ukrainian style of drone warfare is being adopted worldwide, and Ukrainian veterans of the war are in demand overseas to show how drone war is carried out. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 turned a local problem into a conflict with global impact. These were the result of economic disruption caused by the fighting inside Ukraine and unexpectedly severe economic sanctions imposed on Russia. Both nations were key components of the global food, energy and raw materials supply system.
In addition to the sanctions, Russia found that its armed forces were far less effective than it and other nations believed. This had different implications depending on whether you were an ally of Russia or a potential victim. The Russian military was revealed to be riddled with corruption, poor leadership, and a government that underestimated how serious those known problems were. Ukraine was the first widespread and intensive heavy use of Russian weapons by Russian troops since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Many of the Ukrainian weapons were similar or even identical to those used by Russia, but Ukrainians were more motivated and better prepared for combat than the Russian invaders. Another embarrassing revelation was that the Western weapons Ukrainians used heavily, especially portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems, were far more effective than the Russians expected. Russia has long been a major arms exporter, and existing and potential customers are revising their purchasing plans. Nations already equipped with many Russian weapons and military gear also have to revise their military plans.
Russia is also a major exporter of fuel, food and raw materials. Russia is the major supplier for some raw materials. Customers can find other suppliers but often at great expense, especially when time is a factor. European nations have become increasingly dependent on Russian oil and natural gas. The Russians assured skeptical European customers that it was in everyone’s interest to honor these energy export deals because Russia had become dependent on tech, manufactured goods, and specialized services supplied by their European energy and raw materials customers. The extent of the economic sanctions imposed by the West in response to the Ukraine invasion surprised Russia. As did the realization that their former European customers could afford to pay the high cost of switching suppliers. The smaller, weaker Russian economy couldn't shield the average Russian from the sanctions' economic impact. The Russian government tried to shift the blame to the unreliable foreigners. That excuse was showing its age, and more Russians are inclined to blame their own government, the same government that eventually outlawed any public expressions of doubt in the capabilities of government officials.
Foreign trade accounts for about 28 percent of Russian GDP, and the 2022 sanctions have disrupted about half of it. China is Russia’s largest trading partner and, together with Belarus and a few other nations, continues to trade with Russia. Sanctions have halted the other half, creating major problems for the Russian economy. The disrupted exports are a more manageable problem for the trading partners involved, which are mainly industrialized nations in the West.
All this undermines Russia's future economic prospects. This negatively affects Russian allies. These foreign supporters now see their powerful patron as less powerful than believed and now feel desperate or simply afraid. And then there is China, which does not have allies, only trading partners and tribute states. Russia is now moving from trading partner to lower tribute-state status.
China has territorial claims on Russia on or near the Pacific coast. Japan disputes Russia's ownership of some Pacific Coast islands that Russia took at the end of World War II. Until recently, Japan was rather timid in its requests to Russia about these islands. Once it became clear how poorly Russia was doing in Ukraine, Japan has become more open and aggressive about the island dispute and Russian efforts to keep Japanese fishing boats out of areas they have long worked in.
Since the 1990s, China has modernized and expanded its armed forces to the point where, on paper, it has stronger ground, air, and naval forces than Russia. Chinese forces have not been in combat since the 1970s, and back then found the less numerous but more experienced and motivated Vietnamese surprisingly effective. Russia encountered a similar situation in Ukraine. A major difference between China and Russia is that China studies and learns from its mistakes and others'. Russia did not pay attention, especially to what was going on in Ukraine between 2014 and 2022. China has paid attention to how Ukraine prepared and how the West responded. This matters to China because of its efforts to take Taiwan and the South China Sea. Taiwan was also paying attention, especially since 2014, and has increased its preparations to defeat a Chinese attack. Massive sanctions on China would be another matter because China is now the world's largest trading nation, followed by the U.S. and Germany. These three nations are the only ones with trade exceeding $1 trillion. Russia was 19th before the sanctions and, with the sanctions, will be fortunate to remain in the top 30 nations. If China faced the degree of sanctions Russia received, the results would be catastrophic because, while the Chinese economy is much larger than Russia’s, it is much more sensitive to major disruptions. While China is still a communist police state, there is greater risk of major internal unrest if the economy is mismanaged. Heavy foreign sanctions are seen as mismanagement.

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By Steve Cole (Stevecole) on Monday, August 31, 2026 - 03:16 pm: Edit

Russia: The War On Russian Shipping
August 30, 2026: Both Ukraine and Russia border the black Sea, and both export grain. Russia exports 50 million tons a year while Ukraine sells 42 million tons. All Ukrainian exports and most Russian exports travel through the Black Sea. Recent Ukrainian and Russian combat operations in the Black Sea have blocked those exports. That means about seven million tons of grain are not reaching the world each month as long as this continues.
Recently, it has been Ukrainian drones sinking or damaging over fifty Russian ships, most of them hauling grain. Russian threats against Ukrainian shipping have kept Ukrainian grain transports in various ports or waiting in the Mediterranean Sea until the situation improves. Meanwhile, Ukrainian aerial and naval drones prevent the Russian Black Sea Fleet from intervening in the battle for control of the Black Sea.
To put the grain export situation in perspective, nearly 600 million tons of grain are exported each year. Russia and Ukraine account for a quarter of that. The rest come from the Americas, Europe, Central Asia, and Australia. While the United States and Canada account for nearly a third of world wheat exports, Russia accounts for 10 percent and Ukraine for 4.4 percent. Each year, about 2,300 ships enter the Black Sea to load 64 million tons of grain for export. That’s eleven percent of the world's grain exports.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, its Black Sea fleet dominated the Black Sea and threatened Ukrainian grain exports, which accounted for 41 percent of its export income. The Russian Black Sea Fleet sought to block those exports. Most of these grain products went to Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. These countries switched to other suppliers, but food imports cost more because, with Ukrainian grain off the market, shortages rose and prices climbed, making it more costly for nations dependent on Ukrainian grain to feed their populations.
Ukraine needed to deal with the Black Sea Fleet quickly. The initial problem was that Ukraine lacked a large navy. They had some patrol boats, which were a nuisance but not an obstacle to Russia's continued control of the Black Sea.
Ukraine did have something of a secret weapon: naval drones, especially the Magura. About a hundred of these drones defeated the Black Sea fleet. When the war started, the Magura V5 was just a concept, a preliminary design for a one-ton, 5.5-meter-long naval drone. Magura initially used a fishing boat with a solid waterproof cover, plus batteries for propulsion. There were sensors and a compartment for 300 kg of explosives or weapons. These included a machine gun protruding above the drone's top and two Sidewinder anti-aircraft missiles in launch tubes, ready to be fired at Russian aircraft or helicopters. Magura had many electronic components, including several day/night video cameras that gave the remote operator a view of the area around the drone. It also had an autopilot, so the remote operators did not have to personally maneuver the drone over long stretches of open water. Most Magura missions were one-way, but those equipped with machine guns and surface-to-air missiles were used to attack Russian aircraft. One Magura V7 used those two missiles to shoot down two Russian SU-30 jet fighters. This was the first time a naval drone had shot down warplanes. Earlier, a Magura had used Ukrainian R-73 heat-seeking missiles to take down one Mi-8 helicopter and damage another.
In 2025, Ukraine introduced the Magura V7, which weighs about 1.2 tons and can carry 650 kg of weapons. Its operational range is a thousand kilometers. The V7 can also be equipped with an electricity generator, enabling it to stay at sea for up to seven days. This model can move at speeds of up to 72 kilometers an hour. Cruising speed is 43 kilometers an hour.
The Ukrainian experience using naval drones to defeat the Russian Black Sea Fleet was unique. Ukraine had only surface-to-ship missiles when the war started, but eventually shifted to three new naval drones, Sea Baby, Mother, and MAGURA, or Maritime Autonomous Guard Unmanned Robotic Apparatus.
Some of these naval drones were used for a mid-2023 Kerch Bridge attack. One of the drones carried 850 kg of explosives and inflicted enough damage to halt use of the bridge. The Mother drone carried 450 kg, and MAGURA carried 320 kg. In addition to attacking targets, these drones can also be used for reconnaissance and surveillance using video cameras that broadcast what they see back to the drone operator. Some drones have been armed with small rocket launchers. The Mother drone has a range of over 700 kilometers and can operate on the high seas. Endurance is about 60 hours, and top speed is over 70 kilometers an hour. Mother was used for an attack on the Russian naval base at Novorossiysk, which is a thousand kilometers from Crimea.
Ukraine has been developing subsurface drones and, in early 2023, introduced the first one, the Toloka2 TK-150. This drone was 2.5 meters long and equipped with a sensor mast that remained above the surface for navigation and target identification. Toloka2 can also carry a small explosive warhead. Later, Ukraine developed the larger Marichka drone that is six meters long and one meter in diameter. Ukraine plans for a Western manufacturer to build and weaponize Ukrainian drones.
Ukrainian drones have been quite successful in attacking and sinking or disabling Russian navy ships. So far, over a dozen attacks have sunk or damaged about twenty ships.
Ukrainian drone operations in the Black Sea forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet to withdraw to the eastern shore of the Black Sea. Sevastopol was no longer a safe place to be, and Russian ships could no longer launch their Kalibr cruise missiles without risking attack by Ukrainian drones. The presence and aggressive use of the drones meant that Ukraine’s grain corridor was kept open despite Russia’s threats to interfere. Beyond symbolic significance, the corridor holds critical economic importance for Ukraine and is expected to contribute up to seven percent to GDP growth in 2024 because of the grain shipments.
Russian countermeasures to Ukrainian naval drones included using aircraft and helicopters to destroy slow-moving drones before they attack and expanding use of jamming to disrupt drone control signals. These changes made it much more difficult for Ukrainian naval drones to reach and destroy targets. But by 2025 the Russians had already lost control of the Black Sea and were not getting it back.
This left Russian warships dependent for maintenance and fuel on bases in the north, near the land border with Norway, and in the Far East, near Japanese and South Korean naval bases. In a post-Cold War development, the Japanese and South Korean fleets are now far larger than the Russian Far East fleet. Before the 1990s, the South Korean fleet was largely non-existent and the Japanese fleet tiny and purely defensive. Chinese naval power began to emerge by the late 1990s but took another decade to become a significant force. Then, as now, the American Western Pacific Fleet was a major naval power in the region.
The lessons learned by American, Chinese, Taiwanese, Ukrainian, and Russian naval commanders are that these drones have changed the rules for naval warfare. If China tries to invade Taiwan, they have to prepare countermeasures for numerous naval drones blocking the way. Everyone continues to observe Black Sea operations for details on what new tactics, techniques, and drone designs appear. The U.S. has an edge because they are a major supporter of Ukraine and is seeking to make the most of its insider knowledge of the Ukrainian naval drone effort.
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